-
4 votes
-
A comedian in a drama
4 votes -
Prince Edward Island elevates Green party to opposition in Canadian first
4 votes -
One in two voters don't understand how to vote for the Senate: poll
7 votes -
Ukrainians vote in presidential elections with comedian on track for triumph
11 votes -
Labor demands Facebook remove 'fake news' posts about false Australian death tax plans
9 votes -
The Israeli election is over. It never mattered to Palestinians.
8 votes -
To help voters put the election issues into context, the Grattan Institute compares Australia's performance on a broad range of indicators with nine comparable countries.
7 votes -
Finland’s Social Democrats win close election victory
12 votes -
Polls open in the world's largest democracy: Fun facts on India's election
7 votes -
Federal election: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison sets May 18 election date
5 votes -
Why I’m boycotting today’s Israeli elections
6 votes -
Israeli election: Far-right, pro-cannabis libertarian may be kingmaker
8 votes -
Erdoğan’s grip on Turkey slips as opposition makes election gains
12 votes -
Comedian who plays a president on television comes out on top in first round of Ukraine elections
7 votes -
Only black reporters allowed in Georgia mayoral race event
7 votes -
AG William Barr releases Mueller Report’s principal conclusion
29 votes -
The decline of the low countries
7 votes -
Thailand elects first transgender member of parliament
10 votes -
Preliminary results from Thailand's Election Commission show a military-backed party in the lead, in the country's first elections since a military coup in 2014.
6 votes -
NSW election delivers Liberal win, Gladys Berejiklian becomes first elected female Premier of NSW
7 votes -
Anti-immigration populists surge in fragmented Dutch elections
8 votes -
Bernie Sanders' staff unionizes in US presidential campaign first
17 votes -
Colorado signs on to popular vote bill that could one day change presidential elections
8 votes -
Roger McNamee, FB investor, author "Zucked": mentoring Zuck, Russia, big data, surveillance-PT1
5 votes -
'Fake news' on India-Pakistan crisis raises fears before election
6 votes -
Israeli electoral committee bans Arab candidates, allows extreme right to run
12 votes -
Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown won't run for President
7 votes -
The movement to skip the electoral college is about to pass a major milestone
34 votes -
To build a better ballot — An interactive guide to alternative voting systems
24 votes -
Socialists win big in Chicago
14 votes -
Quebec is moving ahead with its plan for electoral reform (mixed-member proportional) but says it will not hold a referendum on the issue
10 votes -
Jacob Wohl has spread lies on Twitter about Robert Mueller, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Kamala Harris, and more. Now, he’s eyeing the 2020 election.
22 votes -
Colorado governor will sign bill aimed at bypassing electoral college
12 votes -
After stinging Presidential loss, Popular Vote Movement gains momentum in states
21 votes -
In North Carolina, investigators find ballot ‘scheme’ in House race
11 votes -
A TV actor who played Ukraine's president could now become the actual president
8 votes -
Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) urges Muslims to cast votes and avoid "golput"
6 votes -
Nigeria presidential election postponed by a week
5 votes -
How fake news was weaponized in Nigeria's elections
5 votes -
Spain: Will a snap election spell the end for Pedro Sanchez?
6 votes -
National Popular Vote bill passes Colorado State Senate
27 votes -
Private Mossad for hire - Inside an effort to influence American elections, starting with one small-town race
7 votes -
Thai Princess Ubolratana Mahidol running to be Prime Minister against military candidate
6 votes -
Zanu-PF wins majority in Zimbabwe parliament elections, officials say
7 votes -
Australia recognises Juan Guaidó as Venezuela president
6 votes -
Fake news is more likely to be shared by older people — but we don't know why
19 votes -
A basic analysis of the 2018 US midterm elections suggests it was less gerrymandered than other recent elections for the House of representatives
Now that the ballots for the 2018 House of representatives election have been counted, how badly was the vote gerrymandered? Gerrymandering is the creating of political districts to maximize the...
Now that the ballots for the 2018 House of representatives election have been counted, how badly was the vote gerrymandered?
Gerrymandering is the creating of political districts to maximize the number of representatives a political grouping gets per vote.
The degree of gerrymandering can be approximated by calculating the difference between the outcome of a proportional voting system and the actual districted representatives each party gains.
Here's a look at the last 5 elections to the House of representatives.
In this congress, the Democrats have 235 representatives, the Republicans have 199 and there's 1 other representative.
Voter turnout was 50,3%, the highest for a midterm election since 1914.
The Democrats got 53,5% of the popular vote and 54,0% of the seats. The Republicans got 44,8% of the vote and 46,0% of the seats. Others got 1,8% of the vote and a single seat.
Since the Republicans are no longer getting vastly outsized representation, is gerrymandering dead?
If the US would have had a proportional voting system, 7 of the 435 seats would have been distributed differently in 2018.
The Democrats would have had 3 fewer representatives, the Republicans would have had 4 fewer and others would have had those 7 seats.
Here are the similar figures for the last five elections.
Year Votes per seat ('000) Dem diff. Rep diff. Other diff. 2010 199 -3 +18 -15 2012 281 -11 +27 -16 2014 179 -10 +24 -14 2016 295 -15 +27 -12 2018 261 +3 +4 -7 The change from getting 27 seats "wrong" in 2016 to 7 seats "wrong" this year is large and changes the historic trend.
Turns out that higher turnout led to more accurate representation in 2018. Who would have guessed.
(There are many other additional possible explanations for why this has changed too)
If we just look at the two major parties, what does this mean in real terms?
Here's an overview of the average difference in the number of voters the Democrats have needed for each seat they actually got in the last five elections compared to the Republicans.
Year Additional Dem voters for a seat 2010 8,6% 2012 19,4% 2014 16,6% 2016 21,4% 2018 0,8% There are other ways of trying to engineer specific election results.
This basic overview only looks at people who actually vote. Therefore it obviously doesn't consider those who are prevented from voting in the election process, whether that's from voting requirements, accessibility of polling places, registration requirements, etc.
It will be interesting to see what happens in 2020.
Is this a trend that'll continue?
Is it just a blip because those gerrymandering haven't been able to predict what party voters vote for in today's political climate?
What about turnout?
15 votes -
'It's going to be chaos': Thais to vote in February for first time in eight years
6 votes -
Susan Moylan-Coombs to run as an independent against Tony Abbott in Warringah
2 votes