End of the year 2023 Oscar predictions

cloud_loud
2022-12-21T21:47:34Z

Nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice have been released.

Also, today, the shortlist in many categories has also been released.

Here’s where I think the race is going and, unlike my other lists, I have an explainer for all the predictions.

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. The Fabelmans

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. Avatar: The Way of Water

6. Tár

7. Elvis

8. Babylon

9. Women Talking

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Triangle of Sadness

The top 9 are all pretty clearly happening. Even with mixed-to-negative reviews Babylon is still going to get a lot of below-the-line nominations and one or two acting nominations which would be more than enough to get a Picture nomination. In a similar way to Vice or Don’t Look Up, Babylon is just too big to fail.

Really, the only thing that’s left up to debate is the 10th nominee. There are three contenders for that spot: Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness, and RRR. I just don’t see a big enough push from critics for RRR to happen, nor do I see much international appeal/acclaim for that film to happen. Triangle of Sadness has a lot of European support (as it won the Palme and the Euro Oscars). However, Glass Onion is my pick. It made a killing in its limited release. It’s going to be extremely popular when it hits Netlfix in a few days, and unlike the first Knives Out, it’s likely to get an acting nomination.

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water

4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Todd Field - Tár

Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

These seem like an easy five. Chazelle was supposed to be a contender but after he missed at the Globes (who were supposed to love the film) he’s not happening. McDonagh was snubbed in this category five years ago for Three Billboards. But, frankly, Banshees is a stronger contender than that film was. He has a lot of high brow support this time around, which he didn’t last time, which led to Paul Thomas Anderson getting nominated in Phantom Thread. Kosinski I think is getting a DGA nomination, but the director’s branch is known for their high brow taste and Cameron already has the action-adventure movie. Not to mention the directing duo of Daniels having an action movie as well.

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. Tár

4. The Fabelmans

5. Triangle of Sadness

Babylon missed Screenplay at both the Globes and Critic’s Choice. While it’s probably getting a nomination at WGA, it’s dead in this category. There’s really only one other choice here and that’s Triangle of Sadness. It has the support to get it there.

I currently think Banshees is winning as, again, it’s a stronger movie than Three Billboards. EEAAO can still win as Get Out beat McDonagh last time. But I just don’t see it happen. Get Out won more screenplay awards with critics than EEAAO.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

3. Living

4. The Whale

5. Bones and All

The top 3 are locked. The Whale would miss in a stronger year but there isn’t a lot of choice in this category. Bones and All I think makes sense as a passion pick. It won two awards at Venice. I had Pinocchio in this category a little while ago but that’s also dead here. Another possibility is She Said, but no one actually cares about that movie and it’s not the type of thing that gets in as a sole Screenplay nominee. Those usually go to offbeat things like The Lobster.

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Austin Butler - Elvis

3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale

4. Bill Nighy - Living

5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

The top 4 are locked. The fifth nominee here is a tough one. Again, not a lot of choice. Hugh Jackman is in a movie no one cares about. Babylon is probably not gonna be strong enough to get its lead into this category. Leaving us with Tom Cruise.

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - Tár

2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. Margot Robbie - Babylon

4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till

5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

I Wanna Dance With Somebody is dead. It has worse reviews than Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s not going to make as much money as BoRap, and Ackie did not get nominations at the Globes or Critic’s Choice.

Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Brad Pitt - Babylon

4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

Keoghan has been getting tons of acclaim so him getting in alongside Gleeson for Banshees seems like it’s happening. The only one here I’m not too sure about is Dano who missed out on a nomination at the Globes. I’m not sure who would replace him as of right now though and I think Fabelmans gets more than one acting nomination.

Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once

4. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking

5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Outside of Condon, none of these are guaranteed. I think Monae is definitely getting in, especially if Glass Onion is a Picture nominee, but she did miss out on a Globe nomination. Women Talking is either only getting Buckley as an acting nomination or its getting no acting noms. I’m counting on De Leon getting that Euro push which gave Buckley a nomination last year for The Lost Daughter.

Cinematography

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Babylon

3. The Fabelmans

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. Tár

These seem like an easy top 5. Maybe Empire of Light gets in because of Roger Deakins’s name. But no one cares about it.

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Everything Everywhere All At Once

4. Elvis

5. The Banshees of Inisherin

Fabelmans is probably missing here, so is Babylon. Film Editing is usually reserved either for Top 5 movies or for extremely flashy editing. Fabelmans isn’t flashy and Babylon isn’t going to be strong enough. Top Gun: Maverick is an easy winner in this category alongside other bombastic winners like Ford vs Ferrari and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Elvis

4. Babylon

5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

The top 4 seem like they’re happening. The fifth one is more up in the air. The sound branch usually likes nominating Best Picture nominees though and Fabelmans missed the shortlist which is why I have EEAAO in there. Top Gun is an easy winner here again. Plus, there’s a correlation between Film Editing and Sound.

Original Score

1. The Fabelmans

2. Babylon

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Women Talking

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Avatar got snubbed at the Globes, which means it’s probably not happening. It’s also not that flashy of a score and contains kind of milquetoast action movie music. I currently have Fabelmans winning as John Williams is retiring after he finishes up Indiana Jones. However, I don’t think there’s a clear winner here right now.

Original Song

1. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick

2. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like A Woman

5. “Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Naatu Naatu has a lot of passion. Applause is from Diane Warren who gets nominated for her boring documentary songs every year.

Production Design

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Babylon

3. The Fabelmans

4. Elvis

5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Costume Design

1. Babylon

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

3. Elvis

4. The Fabelmans

5. Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. The Whale

2. Elvis

3. Babylon

4. The Batman

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

4. The Batman

5. Nope

I actually had EEAAO here but it missed the VFX shortlist.

Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes

3. Turning Red

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

5. Inu-Oh

Pinocchio is the front-runner here, Marcel has a lot of passion amongst hipster types and has been getting in everywhere. Disney’s only real contender in this category is Turning Red. Puss in Boots has been getting in everywhere. Inu-Oh got a Globe nomination but I don’t really know what else would get in there. Kind of a weak year for animated films.

International Film

1. Decision to Leave

2. All Quiet on the Western Front

3. Close

4. Saint Omer

5. The Quiet Girl

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed

2. Moonage Daydream

3. Fire of Love

4. All That Breathes

5. Descendant

Okay that’s all I got for you. I cut out some of the commentary because I feel like I went on too long in the beginning.

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