14 votes

World population to reach eight billion this year, as growth rate slows

3 comments

  1. [3]
    cmccabe
    Link

    15 November 2022 is predicted to be the day that the global population reaches eight billion. The projection is revealed in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 report, which also shows that India is on course to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.

    The latest UN projections suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s. The population is expected to remain at that level until 2100.

    3 votes
    1. [2]
      UniquelyGeneric
      Link Parent
      I know I probably lean more toward the doomer side of the fence, but I just have a hard time believing these numbers are anywhere close to accurate. They bake in generous assumptions about action...

      I know I probably lean more toward the doomer side of the fence, but I just have a hard time believing these numbers are anywhere close to accurate. They bake in generous assumptions about action against global climate change and continuation of international peace. Supply chain disruptions and inflation aside, it’s becoming increasingly more difficult for developed countries to support a single child, which is causing population decline. Developing countries will be the first affected by inhospitable environments due to climate change, I can’t see their (or any) populations growing after 2050.

      This transition to sub-1% growth reads to me like capitalist click-bait, the likes of which would get Elon Musk to start selling his sperm to single-handedly repopulate the earth with his spawn. The world was gripped with fears of overpopulation 50 years ago and they got relieved by the temporary workaround of petrochemical fertilizers and increased reliance on fossil fuels.

      Ukraine and Russia are in a grain shipment crisis affecting the developing world. The ocean is overfished, acidifying, and the plankton are dying. These are not future problems, they exist today. I think it’s naive for the UN to project population growth with such a superficial take. A different group at the UN is warning that the risk of societal collapse is increasing every day. Is the left hand not talking to the right hand?

      While I don’t subscribe to a Malthusian take on global population control, as it tends to lead to racial biases and homogenization of a gene pool, I do think the modern world is careening towards a population cliff. Successful developed countries have been declining for a while (e.g. Japan, Germany, South Korea). Unsuccessful developed countries have headed the same way (e.g. Russia, Portugal, Greece). Only developing countries hitting their relative “heyday” seem to be organically growing, as even the US has propped up its own population growth through immigration from them for quite some time. China’s one child policy created a generation of unwed men with few prospects at progeny. India is going to surpass China’s population soon, yet it already has issues with accessible clean water and is a literal hotbed for future unsurvivable wet bulb temperatures.

      The UN’s report seems idealistically bound to current growth rates (the whole reason this report is even making headlines is because it departs from their original forecast). We’re expected to hit 8 billion in a few months, which is double the population of 50 years ago (and which was double the population 50 years before itself). The Paris climate accord wanted to achieve a manageable 1.5C increase by 2100…we’re expected to hit that in 10 years (or less).

      It doesn’t add up. Perhaps we could sustain a far larger population with sustainable allocation of resources, but all signs are pointing to that not happening any time soon.

      2 votes
      1. nukeman
        Link Parent
        My understanding is that stressful environmental conditions tend to encourage procreation rather than discourage it. How infant/maternal mortality will play into that in the future remains to be...

        My understanding is that stressful environmental conditions tend to encourage procreation rather than discourage it. How infant/maternal mortality will play into that in the future remains to be seen, however. Even so, if a hypothetical couple in Bangladesh has five kids, and two of them die before reaching adulthood, that’s still a net gain of one person. Now consider that Bangladesh has over 100 million people, and extrapolate that out to the 5+ billion in the developing parts of the world.

        4 votes