https://archive.is/ORDiU While predicting a recession is a fools game, we have never seen a US president so hell bent on causing a recession. So far we have seen tariffs (which worsened the great...
Is this just about funding tax cuts? Do Musk and Trump really believe in their own hype? Are they Russian agents? Or will they reverse course when they realize how incredibly stupid this all is?
While I am hoping for the best, I am planning for the worst.
Recessions are a great way to buy up property on the cheap for those who already have more money than deities (and release those coveted government stockpiles of gold and cash), and wars are great...
While predicting a recession is a fools game, we have never seen a US president so hell bent on causing a recession.
Recessions are a great way to buy up property on the cheap for those who already have more money than deities (and release those coveted government stockpiles of gold and cash), and wars are great for turning those cheap properties (all inclusive) into non-stop money makers.
Conspiracy-adjacent, but the 'Cybertruck' is a veiled attempt to show that Tesla can change their manufacturing quickly into weapons and tank manufacturing centers, and SpaceX is uniquely positioned to be the missile development program (perhaps, in his mind, war efforts speed up engineering prowess and funding and on the 'whole' it's a positive in the long term of humanity, if you want to give in to his marketing schtick).
Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me too much if Musk has started buying wholesale into accelerationism, it's just enough of a terminally-online kind of philosophy that it seems like he'd embrace it.
Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me too much if Musk has started buying wholesale into accelerationism, it's just enough of a terminally-online kind of philosophy that it seems like he'd embrace it.
It’s true that a recession is a good time to buy assets, but the simplest way to do it would be to buy stock. That worked pretty well in 2009. The idea that inducing a recession is a good way to...
It’s true that a recession is a good time to buy assets, but the simplest way to do it would be to buy stock. That worked pretty well in 2009. The idea that inducing a recession is a good way to make money is crazy talk, because there are so many other ways to make money. (One of the easiest is to put it into an an index fund.)
A simpler explanation is that Trump just really likes tariffs and doesn’t listen to experts.
I think it's slightly less sinister. Tank everything. Billionaires and Russian oligarchs buy everything. Russia wins. I am hoping that before that point some brave and industrious souls start...
I think it's slightly less sinister. Tank everything. Billionaires and Russian oligarchs buy everything. Russia wins.
I am hoping that before that point some brave and industrious souls start putting together....let's call them ranged guillotines.
It should honestly just be a world agreement that billionaires are banned. You hit 1 billion net worth and your options are be exiled to Mars to live with your robots, or donate half to a fund where donations are distributed to various non-profits based on a global voting mechanism.
Not just the great depression, tariffs anywhere have worked just about never times. At best it may see some short term uptick in local manufacturing. And that's the absolute best case scenario for...
Not just the great depression, tariffs anywhere have worked just about never times. At best it may see some short term uptick in local manufacturing. And that's the absolute best case scenario for the US. It's far more likely that it just tanks everyone's economy for a couple of years until they're reversed.
This dude is just too pigheaded to reverse course if proven wrong however, so we'll see how deep the ship sinks.
Sidenote, the archive link 504 broke for me. back up
That isn't true. Tariffs are normal, and when used strategically, can be perfectly effective. We had tariffs on various categories of goods pre-Trump, as does pretty much every country in the world.
tariffs anywhere have worked just about never times.
That isn't true. Tariffs are normal, and when used strategically, can be perfectly effective. We had tariffs on various categories of goods pre-Trump, as does pretty much every country in the world.
They provide a marginal uptick in short term local manufacturing, after which the products that were subject to a tariff are simply moved through a different country, circumventing them entirely...
They provide a marginal uptick in short term local manufacturing, after which the products that were subject to a tariff are simply moved through a different country, circumventing them entirely and driving down the price. This consistently happens with Chinese goods, they’ll just ship them through Malaysia or something.
Any increased costs are ultimately just foisted on the customer. Since the US dismantled their manufacturing, tariffs end up costing the consumer more rather than less as there is no local manufacturing benefit at all.
I have yet to see tariffs actually matter in any trade war.
I’ll concede they work well to reduce inflow from certain resource goods. Putting tariffs on lumber may cause the lumber to be sourced more equally or even slightly favoring local, but even that only works if you can match the output of your trade enemy.
Tariffs just make stuff more expensive. The US cannot function as an autarky.
This has its own costs, and tariffs don't need to be a blacklist - they can also be a whitelist, with trusted partners, that won't facilitate tariff evasion, getting the green light. There's three...
Exemplary
after which the products that were subject to a tariff are simply moved through a different country, circumventing them entirely and driving down the price.
This has its own costs, and tariffs don't need to be a blacklist - they can also be a whitelist, with trusted partners, that won't facilitate tariff evasion, getting the green light.
There's three separate things here
Do tariffs raise prices for consumers? Yes, absolutely. That is, in many ways, the intended outcome. Sometimes that's a good thing.
Are Trump's blanket tariffs a "good thing"? Personally, I don't think so. Tariffs by their nature need to be specific to make any kind of sense.
Is the very idea of nation-specific import taxes something that never works? Seriously, no. There is no country that does not levy tariffs on at least some fields.
This is called: going too far with an idea. Going from "Trump's tariffs are dumb", which is very valid, to "all tariffs are dumb" is an extension of logic which is invalid.
This is not an opinion caused by Trump. Throughout history they seem to have little to no effect. And if they do, not the effect that was intended. Because I can’t remember for the life of me what...
This is not an opinion caused by Trump.
Throughout history they seem to have little to no effect. And if they do, not the effect that was intended.
Because I can’t remember for the life of me what books I got this from I’ll just quote Wikipedia: “There is near unanimous consensus among economists that tariffs are self-defeating and have a negative effect on economic growth and economic welfare”
Hell, lets pull another part of the paragraph because it's a doozy:
"Often intended to protect specific industries, tariffs can end up backfiring and harming the industries they were intended to protect through rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs. Import tariffs can also harm domestic exporters by disrupting their supply chains and raising their input costs."
As a super-simplified hyperbolic example: A country that can import all its water for free will probably never build out its own infrastructure to provide water for themselves. This will be all...
As a super-simplified hyperbolic example: A country that can import all its water for free will probably never build out its own infrastructure to provide water for themselves.
This will be all well and good until there is a global supply chain disruption and significant portions of the country die because they have no way of providing enough potable water.
This is not entirely hypothetical, as we can see some nations that are utterly dependent on aid have trouble building out enough infrastructure to not need the aid.
Manufacturing has been offshored for decades. Stating with Reagan I think (the last guy claiming to make America great again). It would take maybe a decade to build it back, but that would not be...
Manufacturing has been offshored for decades. Stating with Reagan I think (the last guy claiming to make America great again). It would take maybe a decade to build it back, but that would not be possible without competent government intervention, so yeah this is going to be painful unless republicans in congress grow a pair and remove him from office.
I'm going to ahead and say "Yes" to all three of these questions. But to be honest, this is people who think they know a lot more than they do liking the smell of their own farts and moving ahead...
Is this just about funding tax cuts? Do Musk and Trump really believe in their own hype? Are they Russian agents?
I'm going to ahead and say "Yes" to all three of these questions.
But to be honest, this is people who think they know a lot more than they do liking the smell of their own farts and moving ahead as they see best, with the added bonus of knowing they can mop up a lot of extra "value" out of any downfalls.
Agreed. I'm going to add a hot take opinion that the leaders' life experiences being in tech management and in real estate transactions makes them a lot less cognizant of the scale and scope of...
Agreed. I'm going to add a hot take opinion that the leaders' life experiences being in tech management and in real estate transactions makes them a lot less cognizant of the scale and scope of potential risks than leadership candidates from other career backgrounds. Off the top of my head, Carter the former naval officer and nuclear engineer would have had a much broader awareness of how bad it can get when things go sideways. I'm guessing but I believe Ben Carson the surgeon politician would also be aware of risk management concerns despite being to my mind bat shit crazy and extremely right wing. Both Trump and Musk treat people like NPCs and seem unaware or unconcerned that some choices do irrevocable harm.
I agree that trump and musk see people as NPCs. They are both clearly immoral sociopaths. It’s been hard for me to accept that almost half of people aren’t able to detect this. Or they think it’s...
I agree that trump and musk see people as NPCs. They are both clearly immoral sociopaths. It’s been hard for me to accept that almost half of people aren’t able to detect this. Or they think it’s ok because egg prices might go down. If they won’t hurt me because I’m white and wave a trump flag.
It’s been such a slow moving train wreck to watch trump break through every check and balance that’s supposed to keep evil people and traitors out of power. While millions cheer their own demise.
I think people do see it and do know it, but they prioritize or value other things over this. A lot of people have been hurting for a long time - opioid epidemic, loss of good paying jobs that...
They are both clearly immoral sociopaths. It’s been hard for me to accept that almost half of people aren’t able to detect this.
I think people do see it and do know it, but they prioritize or value other things over this. A lot of people have been hurting for a long time - opioid epidemic, loss of good paying jobs that don't require thousand or hundreds of thousands of dollars of education debt, medical debt that can ruin you, loss of education, increasing costs for basic things while being told "the economy is great!", etc. etc. etc.
I think these people are now to the point where, as long as someone else is getting hurt, they feel better. I think it is that simple. Both parties have failed them at this point, and that's why we live in a failed state. I also think it will get worse still yet.
We also have an epidemic of people who cannot think more than one step past what is in front of them. They know their own budgets are bad when there's debt, so that must be bad for the government too, right? And so let's "fix" that by cutting ... well anything ... and then things will get better! But that's not how macroeconomics works, those services being cut are the ones they depend on (but don't realize they do), and it's actually a minuscule amount of the overall budget. But again, other people are getting hurt (in their minds - leopards are feasting either way) so that makes them feel like others can feel the same way they do.
I am saddened by the fact that we've come to a point where the "fuck you I got mine" and "fuck you I'm hurting so you should too" crowds have basically taken over.
You know this quote. Do you know how relevant it is? TL;DR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA
You know this quote. Do you know how relevant it is?
In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the... Anyone? Anyone?... the Great Depression, passed the... Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?... raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression. Today we have a similar debate over this. Anyone know what this is? Class? Anyone? Anyone? Anyone seen this before? The Laffer Curve. Anyone know what this says? It says that at this point on the revenue curve, you will get exactly the same amount of revenue as at this point. This is very controversial. Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980? Anyone? Something-d-o-o economics. "Voodoo" economics.
Before Al Franken ran for office himself, I thought it would be fun for him and Ben Stein to do a Crossfire-style political show since they are both smart and funny people from different sides of...
Before Al Franken ran for office himself, I thought it would be fun for him and Ben Stein to do a Crossfire-style political show since they are both smart and funny people from different sides of the political spectrum. They could have called it the Franken/Stein Show.
https://archive.is/ORDiU
While predicting a recession is a fools game, we have never seen a US president so hell bent on causing a recession.
So far we have seen tariffs (which worsened the great depression), trade wars, decimation of federal workforce, federal spending freezes...
Is this just about funding tax cuts? Do Musk and Trump really believe in their own hype? Are they Russian agents? Or will they reverse course when they realize how incredibly stupid this all is?
While I am hoping for the best, I am planning for the worst.
Recessions are a great way to buy up property on the cheap for those who already have more money than deities (and release those coveted government stockpiles of gold and cash), and wars are great for turning those cheap properties (all inclusive) into non-stop money makers.
Conspiracy-adjacent, but the 'Cybertruck' is a veiled attempt to show that Tesla can change their manufacturing quickly into weapons and tank manufacturing centers, and SpaceX is uniquely positioned to be the missile development program (perhaps, in his mind, war efforts speed up engineering prowess and funding and on the 'whole' it's a positive in the long term of humanity, if you want to give in to his marketing schtick).
Mark as noise if you want.
Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me too much if Musk has started buying wholesale into accelerationism, it's just enough of a terminally-online kind of philosophy that it seems like he'd embrace it.
It’s true that a recession is a good time to buy assets, but the simplest way to do it would be to buy stock. That worked pretty well in 2009. The idea that inducing a recession is a good way to make money is crazy talk, because there are so many other ways to make money. (One of the easiest is to put it into an an index fund.)
A simpler explanation is that Trump just really likes tariffs and doesn’t listen to experts.
I think it's slightly less sinister. Tank everything. Billionaires and Russian oligarchs buy everything. Russia wins.
I am hoping that before that point some brave and industrious souls start putting together....let's call them ranged guillotines.
It should honestly just be a world agreement that billionaires are banned. You hit 1 billion net worth and your options are be exiled to Mars to live with your robots, or donate half to a fund where donations are distributed to various non-profits based on a global voting mechanism.
I'd be happy(ish) if they just paid taxes.
Musk fancies himself as dr. Moriarty?
But he is too high profile for the job.
Not just the great depression, tariffs anywhere have worked just about never times. At best it may see some short term uptick in local manufacturing. And that's the absolute best case scenario for the US. It's far more likely that it just tanks everyone's economy for a couple of years until they're reversed.
This dude is just too pigheaded to reverse course if proven wrong however, so we'll see how deep the ship sinks.
Sidenote, the archive link 504 broke for me.back upThat isn't true. Tariffs are normal, and when used strategically, can be perfectly effective. We had tariffs on various categories of goods pre-Trump, as does pretty much every country in the world.
They provide a marginal uptick in short term local manufacturing, after which the products that were subject to a tariff are simply moved through a different country, circumventing them entirely and driving down the price. This consistently happens with Chinese goods, they’ll just ship them through Malaysia or something.
Any increased costs are ultimately just foisted on the customer. Since the US dismantled their manufacturing, tariffs end up costing the consumer more rather than less as there is no local manufacturing benefit at all.
I have yet to see tariffs actually matter in any trade war.
I’ll concede they work well to reduce inflow from certain resource goods. Putting tariffs on lumber may cause the lumber to be sourced more equally or even slightly favoring local, but even that only works if you can match the output of your trade enemy.
Tariffs just make stuff more expensive. The US cannot function as an autarky.
This has its own costs, and tariffs don't need to be a blacklist - they can also be a whitelist, with trusted partners, that won't facilitate tariff evasion, getting the green light.
There's three separate things here
Do tariffs raise prices for consumers? Yes, absolutely. That is, in many ways, the intended outcome. Sometimes that's a good thing.
Are Trump's blanket tariffs a "good thing"? Personally, I don't think so. Tariffs by their nature need to be specific to make any kind of sense.
Is the very idea of nation-specific import taxes something that never works? Seriously, no. There is no country that does not levy tariffs on at least some fields.
This is called: going too far with an idea. Going from "Trump's tariffs are dumb", which is very valid, to "all tariffs are dumb" is an extension of logic which is invalid.
This is not an opinion caused by Trump.
Throughout history they seem to have little to no effect. And if they do, not the effect that was intended.
Because I can’t remember for the life of me what books I got this from I’ll just quote Wikipedia: “There is near unanimous consensus among economists that tariffs are self-defeating and have a negative effect on economic growth and economic welfare”
Hell, lets pull another part of the paragraph because it's a doozy:
"Often intended to protect specific industries, tariffs can end up backfiring and harming the industries they were intended to protect through rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs. Import tariffs can also harm domestic exporters by disrupting their supply chains and raising their input costs."
As a super-simplified hyperbolic example: A country that can import all its water for free will probably never build out its own infrastructure to provide water for themselves.
This will be all well and good until there is a global supply chain disruption and significant portions of the country die because they have no way of providing enough potable water.
This is not entirely hypothetical, as we can see some nations that are utterly dependent on aid have trouble building out enough infrastructure to not need the aid.
Manufacturing has been offshored for decades. Stating with Reagan I think (the last guy claiming to make America great again). It would take maybe a decade to build it back, but that would not be possible without competent government intervention, so yeah this is going to be painful unless republicans in congress grow a pair and remove him from office.
I'm going to ahead and say "Yes" to all three of these questions.
But to be honest, this is people who think they know a lot more than they do liking the smell of their own farts and moving ahead as they see best, with the added bonus of knowing they can mop up a lot of extra "value" out of any downfalls.
Agreed. I'm going to add a hot take opinion that the leaders' life experiences being in tech management and in real estate transactions makes them a lot less cognizant of the scale and scope of potential risks than leadership candidates from other career backgrounds. Off the top of my head, Carter the former naval officer and nuclear engineer would have had a much broader awareness of how bad it can get when things go sideways. I'm guessing but I believe Ben Carson the surgeon politician would also be aware of risk management concerns despite being to my mind bat shit crazy and extremely right wing. Both Trump and Musk treat people like NPCs and seem unaware or unconcerned that some choices do irrevocable harm.
I agree that trump and musk see people as NPCs. They are both clearly immoral sociopaths. It’s been hard for me to accept that almost half of people aren’t able to detect this. Or they think it’s ok because egg prices might go down. If they won’t hurt me because I’m white and wave a trump flag.
It’s been such a slow moving train wreck to watch trump break through every check and balance that’s supposed to keep evil people and traitors out of power. While millions cheer their own demise.
I think people do see it and do know it, but they prioritize or value other things over this. A lot of people have been hurting for a long time - opioid epidemic, loss of good paying jobs that don't require thousand or hundreds of thousands of dollars of education debt, medical debt that can ruin you, loss of education, increasing costs for basic things while being told "the economy is great!", etc. etc. etc.
I think these people are now to the point where, as long as someone else is getting hurt, they feel better. I think it is that simple. Both parties have failed them at this point, and that's why we live in a failed state. I also think it will get worse still yet.
We also have an epidemic of people who cannot think more than one step past what is in front of them. They know their own budgets are bad when there's debt, so that must be bad for the government too, right? And so let's "fix" that by cutting ... well anything ... and then things will get better! But that's not how macroeconomics works, those services being cut are the ones they depend on (but don't realize they do), and it's actually a minuscule amount of the overall budget. But again, other people are getting hurt (in their minds - leopards are feasting either way) so that makes them feel like others can feel the same way they do.
I am saddened by the fact that we've come to a point where the "fuck you I got mine" and "fuck you I'm hurting so you should too" crowds have basically taken over.
You know this quote. Do you know how relevant it is?
TL;DR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA
Nice reference. I think Ben Stien was kind of a jerk though.
Before Al Franken ran for office himself, I thought it would be fun for him and Ben Stein to do a Crossfire-style political show since they are both smart and funny people from different sides of the political spectrum. They could have called it the Franken/Stein Show.
"Kind of" is putting it mildly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Stein#Views_and_advocacy
@mycketforvirrad, I meant this to go into ~finance, should I just delete and repost?
I've moved it back.
why thank you!