9 votes

The stock market looks like the Bitcoin economy, and that’s not a good thing

3 comments

  1. skybrian
    Link
    This seems to be two steps of telephone removed from Varoufakis's speech, which is here. And that speech seems to consist of a bunch of claims without much evidence. (Much of it is well-known and...

    This seems to be two steps of telephone removed from Varoufakis's speech, which is here. And that speech seems to consist of a bunch of claims without much evidence. (Much of it is well-known and old history, which isn't going to be useful to show why 2020 is different from 2019.)

    The stock market sure is weird this year, but seems like an exaggeration to say it's become permanently decoupled - how can anyone know that?

    There are other theories. One theory is that, with the help of central banks, investors have decided to ignore 2020 and assume that the economy will recover next year. This is certainly odd, but we won't find out if it's wrong until next year. Another thing that seems to have happened is that tech companies are all doing well and they've become the biggest part of the market. (Over 20% of the S&P 500.)

    I'm still waiting for the stock market to crash so I can buy more, but maybe it won't cooperate?

    7 votes
  2. [2]
    ParmuTownley
    Link
    The author doesn't seem like a person who really understand bitcoin. This may have been true in 2017 but with Lightning Network the usage is higher than it has ever been. Places like...

    The author doesn't seem like a person who really understand bitcoin.

    The problem is that it has proven to be completely useless as an actual currency

    This may have been true in 2017 but with Lightning Network the usage is higher than it has ever been. Places like https://bitrefill.com wouldn't survive if people weren't spending their bitcoin. But still since it's deflationary by design, people will also use it as store of value.

    as long as the price of Bitcoin remains above that threshold, it remains profitable. The problem is that if Bitcoin is not drawing more buyers, and no more money is coming in, that could spell trouble for the currency.

    I don't understand him completely on this but, Bitcoin mining will always be profitable to some. If the price of bitcoin drops to say 1$. Many miners would stop mining it. But bitcoin readjusts its difficulty every 210,000 blocks (~2 weeks). The down fall in miner hash rate will make it easier to mine. So people can mine it with low powered machines and still be profitable. Sure, the network will be less secure, but if bitcoin hashrate drops to 1/10th of what it is today it'll still be secure enough.

    The real concern is why is bitcoin's price so corelated to the stock market and not gold? Fundamentally Bitcoin is more like Gold than Stock. But investor sentiment takes over fundamentals.

    1 vote
    1. hook
      Link Parent
      Having read many of TechnoLlama’s blog posts and knowing the author as well (plus having been around BTC from pretty early on myself), I can’t really agree with this statement. I have to admit,...

      The author doesn't seem like a person who really understand bitcoin.

      Having read many of TechnoLlama’s blog posts and knowing the author as well (plus having been around BTC from pretty early on myself), I can’t really agree with this statement.

      I don't understand him completely on this but, Bitcoin mining will always be profitable to some.

      I have to admit, it’s been a while since I looked into how BTC mining works, but this is my understanding. The price of mining depends (mostly) on power consumption. I would assume there is a certain difficulty below which BTC cannot go, and if the power costs outweigh that, it’s not profitable anymore.

      As anecdotal evidence, I did try mining waaay back when one BTC still cost some €/$ cents, and even then neither my laptop nor my desktop were able to mine a single one.

      1 vote