So I'm still kinda expecting that they've been holding back so far and have something up their sleeves for a massive reveal. They have to, right? The less optimistic side of me (i.e. my...
So I'm still kinda expecting that they've been holding back so far and have something up their sleeves for a massive reveal. They have to, right? The less optimistic side of me (i.e. my front-side), is massively unimpressed by what we've seen up until now. 4K/60fps is basically just a function of what you can show at 4K/60fps because current gen systems can already run run it. That Unreal Engine 5 demo, the only thing mindblowing we've seen so far, apparently runs at upscaled 1440p and 30fps, which is kinda hilarious. And I bet you could just scale down the level of detail by some factor (or just run at 900p or something) to make that shit run on a PS4 Pro with barely any discernible difference unless you sit in front of your wall-sized TV, counting pixels.
So... raytracing? Are we there yet? No more loading times thanks to SSD magic? Actual... -gasp- gameplay improvements (physics gameplay, AI, etc.)? "Hello, I'm Mark Cerny, I've been talking to you for 5 minutes now and it's time to reveal: I'm not actually here, I'm just being rendered live on a PS5!"
But honestly, with the next Xbox having the word "Series" in its title, I think we're moving on from generation-shifts and entering a phase where new console models are yearly upgrades you buy like a new GPU or something. All the major releases will be cross-platform, only enthusiasts will care about the difference in render quality. And we'll get a PS6 or PS5-2/Pro in 2021 and so on.
I'm not so certain of that. The reason why Nvidia is pushing raytracing and AMD is expanding on super-fast SSD-GPU links is that they open up new ways to improve graphics beyond just brute force....
But honestly, with the next Xbox having the word "Series" in its title, I think we're moving on from generation-shifts and entering a phase where new console models are yearly upgrades you buy like a new GPU or something.
I'm not so certain of that. The reason why Nvidia is pushing raytracing and AMD is expanding on super-fast SSD-GPU links is that they open up new ways to improve graphics beyond just brute force.
If you think about it, the differences between generations are largely focused around new capabilities and making those capabilities more easily accessable to developers. Look at Playstation consoles for a good example. The PS2's major improvement over the PS1 wasn't just higher polygon fill rates, it was also the addition of super fast co-processors that allowed for rudimentary pixel shaders and new post-processing techniques. The PS3 made those techniques easier for developers to take advantage of by using nVidia's already well-understood archetechture and tooling, and also made multi-threaded CPU processing a priority. The PS4 then improved upon that idea by having a multi-core x86 CPU at it's core, which opened up even more mature tooling for developers.
The biggest, most notable improvements to graphics over the past few years has been techniques that make the lighting more natural. But I think we're basically at the limits of how far we can go with our current techniques, so the newer technologies I mentioned earlier are going to become major. And without those archetechtural changes, developers will have to still support older techniques to simulate what you would otherwise get.
If you want a better understanding of what I'm talking about (I honestly don't think I'm doing the topic any justice), I would recommend looking up DigitalFoundry's in-depth look at how Control implements raytracing, since that game is a great example of getting the 'real thing' with ray tracing and how the old 'good enough' methods hold up. I'm sure you'll notice the rendering artifacts in every other game after you watch that video.
Well, I noticed the Unreal Engine 5 demo had screen-space reflections, you can see artifacts of it under her elbow around 3:50. And things like this get me skeptical about how many early-00s level...
Well, I noticed the Unreal Engine 5 demo had screen-space reflections, you can see artifacts of it under her elbow around 3:50. And things like this get me skeptical about how many early-00s level shader revolutions we'll actually see on next-gen. I think it will stay subtle.
To make that clear: On the engineering side, this upcoming gen will probably see more man hours and ingenuity than anything before! There's fantastic tech that's possible now and that part of the UE5 demo where they switch on random-colored polygons and you basically just see white noise gets me drooling. It's just that the amount of work needed to make something noticeable seems to be increasing with each generation. It's basically this image (which has been floating around since the PS4 release, btw).
I'm skeptical about consoles ever entering a yearly upgrade cycle. Sony and Microsoft would committing themselves to getting some kind of upgraded hardware into new consoles on a yearly basis, and...
I'm skeptical about consoles ever entering a yearly upgrade cycle. Sony and Microsoft would committing themselves to getting some kind of upgraded hardware into new consoles on a yearly basis, and I think that they'll be wary of trusting Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and/or storage manufacturers to have something compelling on a yearly basis. It seems unlikely that they would want to bet consumer goodwill on hardware manufacturers having something big for them (to give an example of why they might be wary, I think Apple has seen this to an extent with Intel's stagnation in year-over-year CPU improvements).
Additionally, my understanding is that consoles are typically loss leaders, and the manufacturers recoup that loss through Xbox Live/PSN subscriptions, game sales, and other means. It doesn't seem like great business to make that loss a yearly think rather than an every 5 years thing when they can just ride out the subscriptions and game sales. Also, I kinda doubt typical console consumers would shell out $500 or so every year or two for upgrades. One of the common arguments against buying/building a PC that I see from big console people is that they just want to pay their $500 up front and have something that works for half a decade, rather than (they claim) paying a ton to upgrade every year.
I generally agree, my angle is more about cross-generation support than raw hardware concerns or the yearly timing. I can just see this upcoming gen being the "softest" launch in generations, with...
I generally agree, my angle is more about cross-generation support than raw hardware concerns or the yearly timing. I can just see this upcoming gen being the "softest" launch in generations, with many major franchises opting for treating PS4 and PS5 as absolutely equal, with the latter getting a few extra bells and whistles. We've seen this more and more with previous gens, but at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony kept the PS4 Pro around as the "entry" machine and the PS5 as the "enthusiast" option, with little focus of "exclusivity". For the Playstation, that's speculation. For Xbox, it's basically what they've been advertising for a year, now, right?
To be honest: I find this a disappointingly boring scenario but a lot of recent moves and a general lack of wow-moments in their biggest revelations so far points in that direction, IMO. The PS4 Pro / Xbox One X were already kinda weird and there's IMO a big chance the PS5 / Series X brands are more marketing decisions and could pass as PS4 Pro-2 and Xbox One X-2.
You make a good point about how major franchises will treat them. Similar enough in power that they can support both, so no reason to abandon the market of people who still have last generation...
You make a good point about how major franchises will treat them. Similar enough in power that they can support both, so no reason to abandon the market of people who still have last generation consoles, even after these are released.
The event has been officially announced now, for June 4: https://blog.playstation.com/2020/05/29/youre-invited-a-look-at-the-future-of-gaming-on-playstation-5/
So I'm still kinda expecting that they've been holding back so far and have something up their sleeves for a massive reveal. They have to, right? The less optimistic side of me (i.e. my front-side), is massively unimpressed by what we've seen up until now. 4K/60fps is basically just a function of what you can show at 4K/60fps because current gen systems can already run run it. That Unreal Engine 5 demo, the only thing mindblowing we've seen so far, apparently runs at upscaled 1440p and 30fps, which is kinda hilarious. And I bet you could just scale down the level of detail by some factor (or just run at 900p or something) to make that shit run on a PS4 Pro with barely any discernible difference unless you sit in front of your wall-sized TV, counting pixels.
So... raytracing? Are we there yet? No more loading times thanks to SSD magic? Actual... -gasp- gameplay improvements (physics gameplay, AI, etc.)? "Hello, I'm Mark Cerny, I've been talking to you for 5 minutes now and it's time to reveal: I'm not actually here, I'm just being rendered live on a PS5!"
But honestly, with the next Xbox having the word "Series" in its title, I think we're moving on from generation-shifts and entering a phase where new console models are yearly upgrades you buy like a new GPU or something. All the major releases will be cross-platform, only enthusiasts will care about the difference in render quality. And we'll get a PS6 or PS5-2/Pro in 2021 and so on.
I'm not so certain of that. The reason why Nvidia is pushing raytracing and AMD is expanding on super-fast SSD-GPU links is that they open up new ways to improve graphics beyond just brute force.
If you think about it, the differences between generations are largely focused around new capabilities and making those capabilities more easily accessable to developers. Look at Playstation consoles for a good example. The PS2's major improvement over the PS1 wasn't just higher polygon fill rates, it was also the addition of super fast co-processors that allowed for rudimentary pixel shaders and new post-processing techniques. The PS3 made those techniques easier for developers to take advantage of by using nVidia's already well-understood archetechture and tooling, and also made multi-threaded CPU processing a priority. The PS4 then improved upon that idea by having a multi-core x86 CPU at it's core, which opened up even more mature tooling for developers.
The biggest, most notable improvements to graphics over the past few years has been techniques that make the lighting more natural. But I think we're basically at the limits of how far we can go with our current techniques, so the newer technologies I mentioned earlier are going to become major. And without those archetechtural changes, developers will have to still support older techniques to simulate what you would otherwise get.
If you want a better understanding of what I'm talking about (I honestly don't think I'm doing the topic any justice), I would recommend looking up DigitalFoundry's in-depth look at how Control implements raytracing, since that game is a great example of getting the 'real thing' with ray tracing and how the old 'good enough' methods hold up. I'm sure you'll notice the rendering artifacts in every other game after you watch that video.
Well, I noticed the Unreal Engine 5 demo had screen-space reflections, you can see artifacts of it under her elbow around 3:50. And things like this get me skeptical about how many early-00s level shader revolutions we'll actually see on next-gen. I think it will stay subtle.
To make that clear: On the engineering side, this upcoming gen will probably see more man hours and ingenuity than anything before! There's fantastic tech that's possible now and that part of the UE5 demo where they switch on random-colored polygons and you basically just see white noise gets me drooling. It's just that the amount of work needed to make something noticeable seems to be increasing with each generation. It's basically this image (which has been floating around since the PS4 release, btw).
I'm skeptical about consoles ever entering a yearly upgrade cycle. Sony and Microsoft would committing themselves to getting some kind of upgraded hardware into new consoles on a yearly basis, and I think that they'll be wary of trusting Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and/or storage manufacturers to have something compelling on a yearly basis. It seems unlikely that they would want to bet consumer goodwill on hardware manufacturers having something big for them (to give an example of why they might be wary, I think Apple has seen this to an extent with Intel's stagnation in year-over-year CPU improvements).
Additionally, my understanding is that consoles are typically loss leaders, and the manufacturers recoup that loss through Xbox Live/PSN subscriptions, game sales, and other means. It doesn't seem like great business to make that loss a yearly think rather than an every 5 years thing when they can just ride out the subscriptions and game sales. Also, I kinda doubt typical console consumers would shell out $500 or so every year or two for upgrades. One of the common arguments against buying/building a PC that I see from big console people is that they just want to pay their $500 up front and have something that works for half a decade, rather than (they claim) paying a ton to upgrade every year.
I generally agree, my angle is more about cross-generation support than raw hardware concerns or the yearly timing. I can just see this upcoming gen being the "softest" launch in generations, with many major franchises opting for treating PS4 and PS5 as absolutely equal, with the latter getting a few extra bells and whistles. We've seen this more and more with previous gens, but at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony kept the PS4 Pro around as the "entry" machine and the PS5 as the "enthusiast" option, with little focus of "exclusivity". For the Playstation, that's speculation. For Xbox, it's basically what they've been advertising for a year, now, right?
To be honest: I find this a disappointingly boring scenario but a lot of recent moves and a general lack of wow-moments in their biggest revelations so far points in that direction, IMO. The PS4 Pro / Xbox One X were already kinda weird and there's IMO a big chance the PS5 / Series X brands are more marketing decisions and could pass as PS4 Pro-2 and Xbox One X-2.
You make a good point about how major franchises will treat them. Similar enough in power that they can support both, so no reason to abandon the market of people who still have last generation consoles, even after these are released.
Should be interesting to see what happens.
The event has been officially announced now, for June 4: https://blog.playstation.com/2020/05/29/youre-invited-a-look-at-the-future-of-gaming-on-playstation-5/
Postponed indefinitely now: https://twitter.com/PlayStation/status/1267525525825900549