10 votes

Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of January 31

This thread is posted weekly, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!

19 comments

  1. kfwyre
    Link
    Seems like the Omicron wave is dying down in my area. It feels like it came and went a lot faster than our similar spike last winter, but it’s hard to tell if that’s really the case or if it’s...

    Seems like the Omicron wave is dying down in my area. It feels like it came and went a lot faster than our similar spike last winter, but it’s hard to tell if that’s really the case or if it’s just due to changes in my perception. One month of pandemic time back then felt far different than one month of pandemic time now.

    As a positive (which I’m trying to actively consider and look for more of moving forward), I had a few periods of full classes this week, with no absences. That hasn’t happened in, well, I can’t remember how long? Literal years at this point, probably. It felt weird having every seat filled — the classroom felt so full! It made my heart sing a little bit.

    8 votes
  2. [4]
    eladnarra
    Link
    The great gaslighting: how Covid longhaulers are still fighting for recognition [...] [...]

    The great gaslighting: how Covid longhaulers are still fighting for recognition

    People with long Covid face an uphill battle convincing skeptics their malady is real – but discrediting uncommon conditions is hardly a new phenomenon

    [...]

    Despite the spate of new studies and grim boom of support groups, there remains a contingent of Americans highly dubious of the condition. In an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal published in March of 2021, psychiatrist Jeremy Devine argued that the symptoms of long Covid can be “psychologically generated or caused by a physical illness unrelated to the prior infection”.

    The condition, he alleged, “is largely an invention of vocal patient activist groups. Legitimizing it with generous funding risks worsening the symptoms the NIH is hoping to treat.”

    [...]

    Yochai Re’em, a psychiatry resident at New York-Presbyterian hospital, says that “part of the urge to reject the notion that there is something called long Covid comes from the fact that many of the patients either are untested, or tested negative, and as a result there’s no objective sign that they actually experienced a Covid illness”. But, he added, the consistency in the symptom presentation of long Covid makes a psychosomatic diagnosis unlikely.

    “There are situations where people have some type of unresolved psychological conflict that then presents with physical symptoms. But usually that is such a unique individual process, and there aren’t unifying themes when a whole group of people presents that way. In other words, all the patients would present with symptoms that are very different. But in long Covid, there are common themes.”

    7 votes
    1. [3]
      MimicSquid
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      My mom fell ill in March of 2020, and afterwards had a variety of symptoms that lingered. She tested negative for covid, but she joined a COVID long hauler support group and was sure she had found...

      My mom fell ill in March of 2020, and afterwards had a variety of symptoms that lingered. She tested negative for covid, but she joined a COVID long hauler support group and was sure she had found an answer and a community that could help her feel better. After extensive treatment of the symptoms and lots of tests, it turns out it was ALS (a long term degenerative disease) all along, and had been creeping up on her even before her illness. It was only in retrospect that the symptoms were clear.

      This anecdote is only that. I am not saying in any way that people aren't ill. But the cluster of symptoms is broad, and it's not the only illness out there. Diagnosis isn't always easy.

      10 votes
      1. [2]
        eladnarra
        Link Parent
        I'm sorry about your mom's diagnosis - I can't imagine how difficult that is. I agree, diagnosis is often hard, and there are certainly some people with other conditions who coincidentally noticed...

        I'm sorry about your mom's diagnosis - I can't imagine how difficult that is.

        I agree, diagnosis is often hard, and there are certainly some people with other conditions who coincidentally noticed their symptoms after a COVID infection (suspected or confirmed). The article is more about the tendency for doctors to dismiss vague/seemingly not connected symptoms as psychological, which stops the diagnostic process in its tracks.

        Devine is quoted talking about the situation your mom found herself in (another condition mistaken as long COVID), but doesn't realize that the other explanation he presents (long COVID is psychological) actively harms those people, too. Someone with MS, cancer, ALS, etc who is dismissed as having long COVID and sent to a psychologist won't get the testing they need. And of course people who do have post-COVID issues likewise won't get testing to confirm the illnesses common to that cohort (MCAS, POTS, ME/CFS, blood clotting disorders, lung damage, cervical instability, etc).

        5 votes
        1. MimicSquid
          Link Parent
          Absolutely. I'm incredibly grateful for the physicians who never dismissed her issues as psychological. She spoke with a number of specialists ruling out other options, and never (as far as I...

          Absolutely. I'm incredibly grateful for the physicians who never dismissed her issues as psychological. She spoke with a number of specialists ruling out other options, and never (as far as I know) was dismissed as it being in her head despite her ongoing treatment for unrelated mental illness. That doctors would do so in order to dodge responsibility for the health of their patients is reprehensible. It's fortunate, perhaps, that her care is through a larger medical provider that provides both her physical and mental healthcare and so the buck couldn't be passed very far.

          4 votes
  3. 3_3_2_LA
    Link
    Huh, just lost a grandparent to the virus earlier this week and I don't really have any emotional stamina to process it. I'll probably deal with it next month. But if anecdata is worth a damn,...

    Huh, just lost a grandparent to the virus earlier this week and I don't really have any emotional stamina to process it. I'll probably deal with it next month.
    But if anecdata is worth a damn, several of my close friends/relatives got the virus since omicron became widespread, so that infectiousness thing checks out.

    7 votes
  4. skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    State of Affairs: Jan 31 (Your Local Epidemiologist) (See the article for the chart.) [...] (However, I notice that in the table, the confidence interval for BA.2 is very wide. The range is 58% to...

    State of Affairs: Jan 31 (Your Local Epidemiologist)

    Denmark’s out-of-this world cases continue to increase. I thought this dramatic figure from John Burn-Murdoch at Financial Times was spot on; it also highlights that ICU rates are decreasing and deaths are about 50% of that of their last winter wave.

    (See the article for the chart.)

    [...]

    In England, for example, BA.2 has a +126% growth rate over BA.1. [...] We have preliminary evidence that vaccines continue to work great against BA.2. In fact, they work a little better than against BA.1.

    (However, I notice that in the table, the confidence interval for BA.2 is very wide. The range is 58% to 79% and entirely overlaps the range given for BA.1. Presumably that will narrow when they get more data.)

    [...]

    In the United States, cases and test positivity rates continue to decline. Because both metrics are mirroring each other (rather than showing opposite trends), I’m confident this is the “true” trend and not a testing capacity or testing behavior phenomenon. The raw number of cases, though, continues to be greatly underreported. Because of the massive blizzard in the Northeast, numbers may be off this upcoming week due to delayed testing, closed labs, and people staying home.

    3 votes
  5. [12]
    Comment deleted by author
    Link
    1. DrStone
      Link Parent
      I live in a country with > 90% vaccination, plus high uptake of boosters, and tight restrictions. Mask everywhere outside your home (including outdoors alone), social distancing everywhere no more...

      I live in a country with > 90% vaccination, plus high uptake of boosters, and tight restrictions. Mask everywhere outside your home (including outdoors alone), social distancing everywhere no more than five per social group, full vaccination required to get in to malls and eateries, restricted eateries (~half capacity, no loud or live music, no sports playing, no singing, etc), zero nightlife and barely any organized sports, fairly tight national borders, a very compliant population, etc. I'm a healthy person, 20-40yr age range, exercise regularly. I work from home, generally only leave the house a few times a week for things like groceries, and diligently follow all of the protocols. I've been vaccinated, plus the booster, as has my entire immediate household and social network. Close to the best case scenario in terms of covid safety both nationally and personally.

      I tested positive for covid yesterday. Thankfully, so far symptoms for me have been those of a cold.

      Some may hear this and say "see, the vaccine and all of that didn't help you. And it's mild!". This is the wrong take away. What it actually means is that if Covid (omicron in particular) is so infectious to break through the boosted vaccine and all of that for a healthy, mostly isolating individual, think about the chances without those protections. Covid is so strong that even with vaccination, if you do catch it, you can still get noticeable symptoms. Others in my household, thanks to the vaccine both in me and them, have not gotten it despite the extremely close and confined contact with me before my symptoms appeared.

      Vaccines are free. Vaccines are readily available. Vaccines are relatively low-impact for most people. Vaccines significantly lower your chance of getting it, even as a young healthy individual, and significantly reduce both your short and long-term symptoms (often to nothing) if you are a breakthrough case. Vaccines protect everyone you come in contact with. Vaccine doses been administered over 10 BILLION times globally and mRNA technology has been studied for decades before this was developed.

      There is no reason not to get vaccinated and every reason to get vaccinated at this point

      12 votes
    2. Thales
      Link Parent
      I think vaccination has two aspects to it: personal benefit and societal benefit. The personal benefits are that you are less likely to: Get sick and/or die Lose out financially (either because...

      I think vaccination has two aspects to it: personal benefit and societal benefit.

      The personal benefits are that you are less likely to:

      • Get sick and/or die
      • Lose out financially (either because you live somewhere where you must pay out-of-pocket for healthcare or due to lost productivity)
      • Suffer long-term health complications (for young and healthy people, "long Covid" is probably the most frightening aspect of the disease)

      For you, these benefits might seem rather small. But then there are also the societal benefits.

      There are many, but here are a few off the top of my head:

      • You are less likely to infect someone and cause them to get sick/become disabled/die
      • You are less likely to contribute to strain on healthcare workers and the healthcare system
      • If you live somewhere with public healthcare (or partially public healthcare), you are less likely to cost your country tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars (either because you end up in hospital or because someone you infect ends up in hospital)
      • If you live somewhere that is locked down, then by reducing the likelihood you'll spread the disease you are helping your locality move out of lockdown. Thus you're helping to preserve people's mental health, get kids back to school, allow the vulnerable/elderly to feel safer going out into their community (many of whom partially judge how safe they are by the local vaccination rate), saving the livelihoods of people who have had to shut down their businesses or scale back hours (covid has not just claimed millions of lives, it has also cost people/the world trillions of dollars), etc.
      • (There are also various other reasons that aren't coming to me right now)

      For me personally, I'm worried about getting long Covid and I also feel awful for those who are suffering because of the virus, whether because they've lost someone they love, lost their business, lost out on precious life experiences (imagine being a high-risk first-year in university right now :( ), or suffered some other terrible loss. It's a bad time right now for a lot of people.

      10 votes
    3. [9]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      Why don't you want to?

      Why don't you want to?

      7 votes
      1. [9]
        Comment deleted by author
        Link Parent
        1. Merry
          Link Parent
          It won't cost you anything to get vaccinated except your time. If you do happen to catch it, your symptoms will be lessened. My partner is incredibly healthy and when she caught delta, she had a...
          1. It won't cost you anything to get vaccinated except your time.
          2. If you do happen to catch it, your symptoms will be lessened. My partner is incredibly healthy and when she caught delta, she had a fever for two days, lost her sense of smell for weeks, and felt worse than any illness she had in the past. This is with no comorbidities. It would have likely been way worse for her had she not been vaccinated.
          3. The chances of being wrong about this choice is way more likely to be wrong about not taking the vaccine vs. having an adverse reaction to the vaccine, if that is what you are scared of.
          4. You can't tell what situations will 100% be safe vs. not. Instead of taking that risk calculation for each situation you encounter, this will make it easier accepting some situations that may be riskier if you aren't vaccinated.

          Don't get me wrong, you aren't going to prevent yourself from getting sick all the time. It is natural to get sick. But there are plenty of situations where I wish I had been proactive in the past about lessening or preventing a bad outcome, that I wish I had done. Look, I ride a motorcycle and understand the severe risk with that, but it doesn't mean that I don't do everything I can to protect myself by wearing the appropriate gear. Getting a vaccine will take an hour of your time, which if you are symptomatic, will reduce the chances of having an illness for many days. I think the risk/reward ratio is there.

          12 votes
        2. kfwyre
          Link Parent
          I know I'm a complete stranger who doesn't know you, so my words won't necessarily carry any weight, but I say this with complete and thorough sincerity: your life matters; your life has value;...

          I know I'm a complete stranger who doesn't know you, so my words won't necessarily carry any weight, but I say this with complete and thorough sincerity: your life matters; your life has value; and your life is worth protecting. The vaccine is, at present, the absolute best way you can do that.

          7 votes
        3. [5]
          PetitPrince
          Link Parent
          What are your circumstances so that you can be so sure? Also, what is your risk/benefit calculations that let you conclude this?

          I also doubt that I'll catch it

          What are your circumstances so that you can be so sure?

          Also, what is your risk/benefit calculations that let you conclude this?

          6 votes
          1. [5]
            Comment deleted by author
            Link Parent
            1. [4]
              PetitPrince
              Link Parent
              I don't think so for two reasons: From a purely selfish perspective, except if you are living with no contact with other human being or live in a special place (island, desert, ...), then you...

              I don't think so for two reasons:

              From a purely selfish perspective, except if you are living with no contact with other human being or live in a special place (island, desert, ...), then you never know who could got it. It's like a seatbelt: you may drive safely but other factors (other drivers, animals, ...) may cause you to crash.

              From a public health perspective, we have empirical data from multiple countries that the worst case of COVID comes from the unvaccinated population, and those worst case would clog up the health system. So in a sense, if you end up in hospital because of COVID you would be a double-burden to the society: not only you are taking an hospital bed, but you are taking an hospital bed someone else could use (for a non-COVID reason, such as surgery, etc..).

              More than half of the planet is vaccinated; you will not die from it. Other concerns: Sure, pharma companies makes money out of it, but then people makes money out of every situation under the sun. And for you personally, it's probably free.

              8 votes
              1. [4]
                Comment deleted by author
                Link Parent
                1. PetitPrince
                  (edited )
                  Link Parent
                  Probably nothing. We're stranger on the Internet, probably living in a very different place, under very different circumstances. Still, I'd like to convince you, not particularly to flatter my...

                  I don't know what to tell you.

                  Probably nothing. We're stranger on the Internet, probably living in a very different place, under very different circumstances. Still, I'd like to convince you, not particularly to flatter my tribalism (although I've learned that's always a factor), but because I've directly seen people affected in a negative way to COVID.

                  First a logical argument: Health, like weather prediction, quality assurance or public policies is always a matter of statistics. Your particular case may go contrary to the trend. They are always some miracles cases: I severally neglected my dental hygiene for several years; and I only got one tooth removed (one in the very back of my mouth; I think it's a good outcome); that's doesn't mean that brushing your teeth is useless. That doesn't mean that the whole trend is meaningless. Especially if the trend is backed by basically the whole planet.

                  But people are often more receptive to personal anecdotes, so here's a report of people I know getting COVID. Tildes is a much smaller community than the vast swathes of anonymous peoples of Twitter, Reddit and Facebook. Hopefully that will sound more truthful than some stories you can read.

                  • Me and my girlfriend, early 2020: Caught in while in a LARP event. I cannot know for sure I got it but my girlfriend (now wife) did a serum test several month later and still got some antibodies. I had about half a day of mild headache, while had also mild flu-like symptoms for about a week or so. But she did lost her taste for 3 months, and fully recovered her taste only 6 month after that.
                  • A friend at our dojo and his wife, mid 2020: he also got mild symptoms, but for her COVID triggered an auto-immune reaction. She's basically barely functioning since (bed ridden most of the time, body aching all the time). Worst part of it is that they are young parents (3 - now 4 - years old daughter), and so he has to bear all the family duties. It has been hard for them and I haven't seen him practice at the dojo (he's passionate about martial arts) for a loooong time.
                  • Brother-in-law, mid-2020: strong flu-like symptoms. He went to the hospital, got thrown out because he was young and healthy enough and had his boyfriend at home in case it got worse. The staff still prioritized the most severe case at that time even though we were in a relatively calm summer.
                  • My brother, end 2020: had "absolutely the worst flu ever" (as in: retrospectively he should have gone to the hospital) for one week then normal flu-like symptoms (read: absolutely terrible, but not scary) for two more weeks. He's also a sports nut, and times his 4K runs and told me he noticed a 20% increase in time after recovering from COVID.
                  • Uncle, beginning of 2021: he already had a cancer, and COVID finished him. As there was was a strict lockdown in France, 1) he died alone (and, based on what I read and what some physician friend told me: it's not a good or glamorous death, more like a slow-paced drowning) 2) my dad (his brother) couldn't even assist to his funeral, since we're not living in France. I was not close to him at all with him (he's basically a stranger), but this hit my dad hard.
                  • Some colleagues, end 2021 (just for Christmas !): very mild symptoms. They are vaccinated.
                  • Some other dojo friends , the very end 2021 (... we had to cancel our new year party :/ ) : very mild symptoms. They are vaccinated.
                  • The other brother in-law, his wife and their daughter, two weeks ago: also mild symptoms, also vaccinated.

                  So yeah, you'll probably end up fine if you get covid while unvaccinated (where I live, the vast majority of death is for people over 40), but in my experience there's a real possibility of this screwing you up.

                  9 votes
                2. cfabbro
                  Link Parent
                  Since nothing else said here seems to be convincing for you, how about another angle: Why continue to burden yourself with the weighing of possibilities, probabilities, and risk assessing, when...

                  Since nothing else said here seems to be convincing for you, how about another angle:

                  Why continue to burden yourself with the weighing of possibilities, probabilities, and risk assessing, when all it takes is under an hour of your time to go get the vaccination? Just go get it over with and you won't have to waste any more of your mental energy on this issue.

                  6 votes
                3. Omnicrola
                  Link Parent
                  If I understand you correctly, the main source of your hesitation is that you're waiting for something/someone to show you something that gives you 100% confidence (a fact, as you phrased it)?

                  No one can tell me for sure what could go down like it's a fact, and regarding data, numbers, etc., I'm somewhat skeptical about those things

                  If I understand you correctly, the main source of your hesitation is that you're waiting for something/someone to show you something that gives you 100% confidence (a fact, as you phrased it)?

                  2 votes
        4. silfilim
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          I'm curious: What is important to you? Why is it important to you? My story: I lead a fairly hermitic life (in a city) and I got the vaccine as soon as it became easy enough for me to get. I guess...

          Yet I still haven't read, heard or found anything that has convinced me enough to go ahead and take it, and this is important for me.

          I'm curious: What is important to you? Why is it important to you?

          My story: I lead a fairly hermitic life (in a city) and I got the vaccine as soon as it became easy enough for me to get. I guess it was an attempt to tilt the odds in favor of my health and survival. I try to think of my eventual death every day, but I still value life, and I tend to be pessimistic/conservative when it comes to taking risk.

          Desire to do my part in the collective effort to survive against this pandemic was also a non-zero factor.

          5 votes
  6. skybrian
    Link
    New Zealand to end quarantine stays and reopen its borders

    New Zealand to end quarantine stays and reopen its borders

    The border changes mean that vaccinated New Zealanders returning from Australia will no longer need to go into quarantine from the end of this month, and vaccinated New Zealanders returning from the rest of the world can skip quarantine by mid-March. They will still be required to isolate at home.

    However, most tourists will need to wait until October before they can enter the country without a quarantine stay. And anybody who isn’t vaccinated will still be required to go through quarantine.

    2 votes