Coronavirus: The hammer and the dance

1. [3]
skybrian
A followup from the author of "Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now." I'm only halfway through but it looks sensible so far, and he's good with graphs.

A followup from the author of "Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now." I'm only halfway through but it looks sensible so far, and he's good with graphs.

1. [2]
Omnicrola
There's a few graphs at the end that are made up (he explicitly states this) to illustrate some research he wishes someone would do.

There's a few graphs at the end that are made up (he explicitly states this) to illustrate some research he wishes someone would do.

1 vote
1. vektor
Agree. I've throught about this before. Wrote a quick computer simulation of how this migth play out given current data. A thought that came up was how to keep the healthcare system working at or...

Agree. I've throught about this before. Wrote a quick computer simulation of how this migth play out given current data. A thought that came up was how to keep the healthcare system working at or near capacity - you don't want them slacking because that means your measures on society might be too harsh. You certainly don't want to overwork them. With the intensely delayed hysteresis of the controls you have (time until measures are adopted + time until infection numbers change + time until symptoms (don't) show + time until diagnoses are done + time until hospital beds free up = 1-2 months), it seems impossible to control the epidemic without knowledge we don't have or very harsh measures. Nevermind that it also will be harder to assign a change you do see to one of the many changes you've made.

2. [2]
vektor
Plots still do not list case numbers as per-capita basis. I'm disappointed. It's kind of hard to take a factor of ten, sometimes factor of 100 difference in population and still compare absolute...

Plots still do not list case numbers as per-capita basis. I'm disappointed. It's kind of hard to take a factor of ten, sometimes factor of 100 difference in population and still compare absolute case numbers. (china, switzerland e.g.)

1. vektor
Nevermind that his whole argument about herd immunity possibly being in vain assumes that the changes we see to the virus actually affect the immune system. I absolutely grant that giving the...

Nevermind that his whole argument about herd immunity possibly being in vain assumes that the changes we see to the virus actually affect the immune system.

I absolutely grant that giving the virus many hosts makes it easy to mutate. And I grant that we can see mutations in its genome. But his consequence of "there is no immunity"... doesn't follow. He also completely neglects that the coronavirus will be a fact of life until we find a cure. Complete, drastic isolation will curb the spread in all the countries that do so. But that won't help unless everyone does the same. If even one patient remains infected after the lockdown is lifted, we can try again. Ate my words there, he does mention that. In fact he makes a good case of why buying time is useful anyway. All the little and big ways in which we can prepare for what's to come.