11 votes

Preliminary evidence suggests Bay Area shelter-in-place order is flattening the curve

5 comments

  1. [5]
    weystrom
    Link
    Isn't it too early to tell? I assumed the data is going to lag 2-3 weeks (incubation + testing periods) behind any of the measures taken.

    Isn't it too early to tell? I assumed the data is going to lag 2-3 weeks (incubation + testing periods) behind any of the measures taken.

    4 votes
    1. [3]
      Gaywallet
      Link Parent
      Yes, there's a reason I titled it the way I did, rather than the title the author provided. It's also going to lag to some extent based on testing availability, which is currently fairly low. In...

      Yes, there's a reason I titled it the way I did, rather than the title the author provided. It's also going to lag to some extent based on testing availability, which is currently fairly low.

      In the health care system I work for, the data still skews quite old (majority of confirmed cases are between the ages of 40-70) for testing with the majority of the testing coming out of the emergency department. It's rare for someone who's symptomatic and not at serious risk to be tested.

      1 vote
      1. [2]
        envy
        Link Parent
        Gaylord, I hope things are going as well as can be expected for your hospital. I presume you have a critical shortage of PPE but not yet a critical shortage of ventilators or beds?

        Gaylord, I hope things are going as well as can be expected for your hospital. I presume you have a critical shortage of PPE but not yet a critical shortage of ventilators or beds?

        1 vote
        1. Gaywallet
          Link Parent
          I work for a healthcare system that has a lot of money. Out of all the systems in the area, we probably have the least supply issues.

          I work for a healthcare system that has a lot of money. Out of all the systems in the area, we probably have the least supply issues.

    2. envy
      Link Parent
      I think 29th of March is when I would start to look for a slowdown. But the number of cases in the bay area is a wildly inaccurate measure, and the number of deaths in the bay area is too low to...

      I think 29th of March is when I would start to look for a slowdown. But the number of cases in the bay area is a wildly inaccurate measure, and the number of deaths in the bay area is too low to give a meaningful measure in the short term.

      Even tracking deaths in New York is misleading, as it sounds like New York is exporting it's infection everywhere as new yorkers flee the lockdown.