10 votes

Daily coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - April 3

This thread is posted daily, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!

12 comments

  1. Algernon_Asimov
    (edited )
    Link
    The curve is flattening in Australia. Look at the data here. The number of new infections every day is decreasing. The "Confirmed cases, cumulative count (log scale)" curve is flattening out. It's...

    The curve is flattening in Australia. Look at the data here. The number of new infections every day is decreasing. The "Confirmed cases, cumulative count (log scale)" curve is flattening out.

    It's working!

    And that's only a week after our strict shutdown rules, which started last Monday. The general expectation is that we won't see the effects of the shutdown for 10-14 days, which means it won't show up in the data until next week or the week after. So, cases are already falling even before we see the full effects of the shutdown. That's encouraging.

    EDIT: I forgot to mention that the Prime Minister had a press conference yesterday in which he said that, if last week's infection trend had continued, we would have had over 10,000 infections now, instead of the 5,000 we actually have.

    The experts are still talking about a peak in July, but the curve is flattening.

    Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, who did the modelling which shows that social distancing works only if we have 80% compliance, has been popping up in various television interviews this week. He's even saying that if we get 90% compliance, we can bring the number of cases down to nearly zero by July - but he always warns that we can't lift social distancing restrictions even then because the curves go up again even steeper than before (all his graphs deliberately show that scenario, to reinforce the idea that we can't stop social distancing even when cases drop to effectively zero).

    The federal government has been resisting calls to release the modelling that it has been using to support its decision-making. Suddenly, on Friday, they're talking about releasing this modelling next week. I can't help but wonder if that's because the curve is turning. If they'd released the models a week ago, they would show an upward exponential curve. If they release the models now, they would show a gentler linear curve. Scotty from Marketing is all about messaging. I wonder if he's decided the message is now good enough to release to people.


    On a personal note, I'm getting through.

    I tried watching 'The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt' last week... and gave up after three episodes. It's not my thing.

    However, the main character said something relevant in the second episode: you can put up with anything for 10 seconds. That resonated with me in my current circumstances. Every time I think about the long-term future, about 6 or more months locked up in my house, I feel the hint of an incipient panic attack. But I often spend entire days at home in my normal life: I've worked from home the majority of the time for the past six months, only going out once or twice a week. I'm fine with staying home for a day or two or three. So I just have to keep focussing on today. I can stay home for one day. That's no big problem. Today, I'm staying home, and that's totally normal for me.

    So, Kimmy Schmidt has helped me reinvent the idea of "taking things one day at a time" for my current personal circumstances.


    And I'm having minor victories. I've managed to find hand sanitiser, even though it's scarce. My housemate is a security officer. He can't work from home. He has to go out. He has to touch things like doors. He gets into a car that's driven by other people. He needs to use hand sanitiser. I need him to use hand sanitiser. So, I occasionally try to track down supplies. Last week, I was unsuccessful. This week, I found some. It's on its way now.

    Life goes on.

    4 votes
  2. [3]
    cwagner
    Link
    Region Cases Change Germany 85,063 +6,948 State (SH) 1,448 +105 City (HL) 101 +3 Timeframe 24h The RKI (German CDC) pre-released a paper about testing in Germany (PDF, German). During week 13...
    Region Cases Change
    Germany 85,063 +6,948
    State (SH) 1,448 +105
    City (HL) 101 +3
    Timeframe 24h
    • The RKI (German CDC) pre-released a paper about testing in Germany (PDF, German). During week 13 (23rd-29th of March), Germany did 354,521 tests, 8.7% being positive. The daily test capacity by the end was 103,515 tests/day.
    • The RKI changed their stance about masks for the public, now recommending them, while reiterating that there is no scientific proof that they protect healthy people
    • Stuttgart Airport (STR) will be closed from Monday on for 2 weeks
    • At least 2300 medical hospital employees are infected
    • The German military will start producing disinfectant
    • Several labs in Germany are working 24/7 on analyzing test-samples, there are between 97 and 170 labs working on samples, depending on the source.
    • As soon as a reliable antibody test is available, there are plans to do broad testing of people who think they have never been infected to get a better estimate of how many are completely asymptomatic
    • The government wants to use big companies to use their contacts and experience to buy protective equipment
    • The RKI said that after the current measures the R0 (how many others an infected person infects on average) in Germany fell to 1
    • Chancellor Merkel is out of self-isolation
    • As expected the CFR in Germany rose to 1,2%
    • The national academy of sciences recommends mouth & nose protection for the public, preferably home-made solutions.
    • Monday a committee will discuss the closing of borders and mandatory quarantines for arriving travelers
    7 votes
    1. [2]
      vektor
      Link Parent
      Amazing. Apparently, the medical branch of the military originally had the capacity to manufacture medical goods at scale. The federal audit office said that that's financially inefficient, so we...

      The German military will start producing disinfectant

      Amazing. Apparently, the medical branch of the military originally had the capacity to manufacture medical goods at scale. The federal audit office said that that's financially inefficient, so we slashed that in 2012. Our Surgeon General (actually the commander of the medical branch) said to that "Was schwierig ist, da die Fähigkeit zur Eigenproduktion von Medikamenten und Medizinprodukten, die der Sanitätsdienst früher hatte - jetzt erkennt man, warum! - aus wirtschaftlichen Gründen aufgegeben werden musste." - "This is difficult, because this production capability we once had -now you know why!- had to be given up for economic/financial reasons." I mean, it wasn't his term back then, but he's giving that "I told you so" speech.

      7 votes
      1. Omnicrola
        Link Parent
        "Why do we keep paying to have all these fire extinguishers certified every year, we never use them!" 🔥🔥🔥 "Why don't we have any way to put out this fire?!"

        "Why do we keep paying to have all these fire extinguishers certified every year, we never use them!"

        🔥🔥🔥

        "Why don't we have any way to put out this fire?!"

        10 votes
  3. [6]
    vektor
    Link
    I'm worried about the US. Doesn't look good at all from here: The states that don't have it bad aren't taking it seriously enough, at least in part. I'm worried about the staunch sentiments of...

    I'm worried about the US. Doesn't look good at all from here: The states that don't have it bad aren't taking it seriously enough, at least in part. I'm worried about the staunch sentiments of personal liberty interfering with necessary self-isolation. Consequences of that that directly impact the world: Trump seems to be more popular than before1, WTF? He's less likely to start a war because he is now a "wartime president" without a war. It might also hurt American worldwide hegemony long-term - in a way I hadn't hoped for. Unexpected power vacuums are never good.

    1: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ - he's more popular than he has ever been since the week of his inauguration. I just can't fathom. I suggest the EU sends developmental aid over there to help you guys with your school system - that way, we at least have a long-term perspective.

    6 votes
    1. [5]
      callmedante
      Link Parent
      These polls from Five Thirty Eight might give you an idea of why a lot of folks here aren't taking this seriously. The US is notorious for not having a robust welfare system, and now that our...

      These polls from Five Thirty Eight might give you an idea of why a lot of folks here aren't taking this seriously. The US is notorious for not having a robust welfare system, and now that our economy is crashing , people are freaking the fuck out about how to pay the bills. I'll say that when my anxiety was peaking a couple of weeks ago, it was about my family's economic future, not our health. I don't want my three-year-old to have a bleak future, and that was all I could see (and this was before the staggering unemployment numbers).

      That said, there's also the death cult of Donald Trump, reflected in the poll you linked. They believe anything that spews forth from him, and their heads are buried so far beneath the earth I doubt they've seen sunshine in years. It's really, really frustrating for those of us who have been taking this seriously. There's a woman in my neighborhood who has been scheduling food trucks to come park for a few hours. Sure, they practice social distancing for the person placing their order, while everyone else stands in line right next to each other. I don't know if they personally think this is all a conspiracy, but their behavior betrays a lack of trust in anyone not named Trump.

      Geez, I was hoping to maybe bring some light to the darkness of the American situation, but now I think I've just made myself a bit sadder about my country. Although to be fair, it's been a trending line down ever since the election in 2016. I hope that this year we get rid of that asshole.

      7 votes
      1. Omnicrola
        Link Parent
        I think it's a very rational thing, and completely understandable. For people living paycheck to paycheck, you're now faced with the vague uncertainty of getting really sick and dying (1-4%...

        The US is notorious for not having a robust welfare system, and now that our economy is crashing , people are freaking the fuck out about how to pay the bills.

        I think it's a very rational thing, and completely understandable. For people living paycheck to paycheck, you're now faced with the vague uncertainty of getting really sick and dying (1-4% depending on where you ask) with the 100% certainty that you just got laid off and your job prospects are so bad "shitty" doesn't even begin to describe it. In a month when even more people have been laid off, furloughed, and businesses permanently closed, I worry how bad it's going to get. People are going to be angry (they're already angry, and afraid). Then they're going to start getting desperate.

        7 votes
      2. [3]
        vektor
        Link Parent
        It took me until now to get your point. You're saying they states aren't taking it too seriously because for many people the economic situation is so dire that a few weeks of outage turns a lot of...

        It took me until now to get your point. You're saying they states aren't taking it too seriously because for many people the economic situation is so dire that a few weeks of outage turns a lot of people very unhappy? @Omnicrola 's point about the US turning into a powder keg is also new to me. I had kind of given up hope for you guys - what would it take to get americans to even strike, or protest at a large enough scale? Maybe this? That is a very interesting angle I hadn't considered.

        I mean, clearly something's got to give here. Let's hope the US doesn't roll the dice of violent revolution; that usually doesn't end well.

        5 votes
        1. Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          Maybe? Hopefully? I mean, we're going to go through a recession. The only question in my mind is how bad it will be, and how long it will last. If any good can come of it, my hope is that some...

          what would it take to get americans to even strike, or protest at a large enough scale? Maybe this?

          Maybe? Hopefully? I mean, we're going to go through a recession. The only question in my mind is how bad it will be, and how long it will last. If any good can come of it, my hope is that some social rebalancing occurs in the form of massive protests demanding things like universal health care. My job is secure for the next few years but I'd be out marching with people if that occurred.

          Let's hope the US doesn't roll the dice of violent revolution

          I don't think that'll happen, even if it gets really bad. Small scale riots maybe, if food water or power start to break down, but a wide scale violent revolution would take a lot more than what I think we're facing. Trump staying in office, possibly. Trump shutting down elections or refusing to leave once voted out, also maybe.

          3 votes
        2. Kuromantis
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          Given protests fly in the face of social distancing (which is why we're shutting down so much of the economy in the first place, it's so people stay home and stop spreading the virus) I don't...

          What would it take to get americans to even strike, or protest at a large enough scale? Maybe this?

          Given protests fly in the face of social distancing (which is why we're shutting down so much of the economy in the first place, it's so people stay home and stop spreading the virus) I don't think it will be in form of protest, but dissent will be pretty high. Here in Brazil we had people banging their frying pans.

          1 vote