9 votes

Daily coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - April 19

This thread is posted daily, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!

27 comments

  1. [6]
    vektor
    Link
    Prediction for posterity, in case people in my life tell me "we couldn't have known": If things continue the way they are right now, we're going to have a second wave even before the first one...

    Prediction for posterity, in case people in my life tell me "we couldn't have known": If things continue the way they are right now, we're going to have a second wave even before the first one properly settles down. Contact tracing doesn't seem to be where it needs to be and people are breaking social distancing measures all around me. From tomorrow on, measures are officially relaxed, on top of that. So in a week and change I expect people to start showing more symptoms, 2 weeks until they show up in the numbers.

    9 votes
    1. [3]
      Comment deleted by author
      Link Parent
      1. [2]
        vektor
        Link Parent
        Absolutely. But the fact that official govt. messaging looks more like "we're going to gradually, but consistently relax measures now because the worst is over" will evoke in people the thought...

        Absolutely. But the fact that official govt. messaging looks more like "we're going to gradually, but consistently relax measures now because the worst is over" will evoke in people the thought "it's over, so I'll go back to business as usual right now"

        Yes, the worst is over. Yes, gradual relaxation of measures is in order. But that needs to messaged with a heaping fuckton of "take this seriously, because it is serious. It's only as good as it is because of what we did the last few weeks. It can go back to realfuckinbad in no time flat, and then you guys are going to have to stay home again, and the weather will be even nicer and your productive relaxation at home will turn into tormenting boredom real quick."

        The government is releasing people from the buy-in we had to fight for. The way they present things matters.

        Armin Laschet (PM of the state NRW) pounding the drum of relaxation for a long while now and with serious dedication doesn't help at all.

        5 votes
        1. skybrian
          Link Parent
          Remember, it could go the other way too, with many people being reluctant to go out even if the government says it's okay. Average behavior seems difficult to predict?

          Remember, it could go the other way too, with many people being reluctant to go out even if the government says it's okay. Average behavior seems difficult to predict?

          1 vote
    2. [4]
      Comment deleted by author
      Link Parent
      1. [3]
        vektor
        Link Parent
        So I live in an apartment complex. Lots of families around me. Every day I see the neighbors kids playing, happily mixing with other families' kids. I see teens meeting up for bike tours. I see...

        So I live in an apartment complex. Lots of families around me. Every day I see the neighbors kids playing, happily mixing with other families' kids. I see teens meeting up for bike tours. I see people having guests over for BBQs. I see bike tours too big to be cohabiting units all the damn time.

        The problem isn't that this stuff happens at all. The problem is that I think it's happening at close to the rate it normally would.

        At the store, last time I was there anyway, people seemed to be generally reasonable. But I was also there on off-peak hours.

        How's it up there? You living in the suburbs or what?

        5 votes
        1. [2]
          skybrian
          Link Parent
          Some of that sounds bad, but I'm not so concerned about the bike tours. When riding a bike you're generating your own wind. The amount of ventilation is pretty high. It's against the rules, but...

          Some of that sounds bad, but I'm not so concerned about the bike tours. When riding a bike you're generating your own wind. The amount of ventilation is pretty high. It's against the rules, but seems lower risk, as rule violations go?

          1 vote
          1. vektor
            Link Parent
            Then they share a drink bottle because one of them ran out. E: I am of course being facetious. Bike tours can be done hygienically, I think. Just keep generous distances on breaks. I just don't...

            Then they share a drink bottle because one of them ran out.

            E: I am of course being facetious. Bike tours can be done hygienically, I think. Just keep generous distances on breaks. I just don't get the impression people are taking this thing seriously anymore.

            1 vote
  2. [3]
    Adys
    Link
    I'm officially bored, I think for the first time since the lockdown. I've been depressed, anxious, overwhelmed, but not yet bored until yesterday. I have this urge to work, but I can't get myself...

    I'm officially bored, I think for the first time since the lockdown.

    I've been depressed, anxious, overwhelmed, but not yet bored until yesterday.

    I have this urge to work, but I can't get myself to be productive. It's frustrating.

    7 votes
    1. [2]
      Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      I hear you. I go through this cycle every few days. Best suggestion I have is force yourself to go for a walk, even if the weather is shitty, even if you don't like walking, even if your...

      I hear you. I go through this cycle every few days. Best suggestion I have is force yourself to go for a walk, even if the weather is shitty, even if you don't like walking, even if your neighborhood is ugly. The change in surroundings is helpful, the mild exercise doubly so.

      I try to do this every day. Sometimes I don't, and I feel way more down the next day.

      3 votes
      1. Adys
        Link Parent
        The weather is shitty, which was probably part of the problem. I did stay inside and ended up being productive by working on a personal project, which led me to release a python package on...

        The weather is shitty, which was probably part of the problem.
        I did stay inside and ended up being productive by working on a personal project, which led me to release a python package on Merchant Category Codes.

        2 votes
  3. Omnicrola
    Link
    I'm beginning to feel like I'm a broody teenager again. I sit in front of a computer most of the day, I only talk to "my internet friends", I don't leave the house, I only shower sometimes, and I...

    I'm beginning to feel like I'm a broody teenager again. I sit in front of a computer most of the day, I only talk to "my internet friends", I don't leave the house, I only shower sometimes, and I wander into the kitchen at odd hours for food. My mother would have flashbacks if she saw me.

    In general the warmer weather is helping, there's more to do outside. However it's not quite there yet. Friday it snowed several inches here in Michigan, though it didn't really stick and melted the next day.

    7 votes
  4. moocow1452
    Link
    I'm dealing with the fact that I have things to watch on Netflix and Hulu, and whatever else I signed up for, but I don't really want to start any of it, since even an hour and a half is time I...

    I'm dealing with the fact that I have things to watch on Netflix and Hulu, and whatever else I signed up for, but I don't really want to start any of it, since even an hour and a half is time I could be flying scattershot around the internet, and watching media isn't super productive anyway. Something like YouTube, you can bounce around, drop something if it doesn't have your attention, but traditional media is a commitment, and my time management skills are at the point where chucking hours at a TV show I'm not already into is a non-negotiable bad but throwing myself at different things with no rhyme or reason to avoid contemplating the passage of time is acceptable loss. And I know that I'm not having that bad a time of it either, but I guess I need a moment to breathe. If television isn't relaxing, maybe I should actually try to write for what I'm working on for a bit, see if I can maybe get into it.

    4 votes
  5. [2]
    Algernon_Asimov
    Link
    I just want to boast a bit. I stumbled across this study in my readings. Basically, it's trying to estimate how much we're under-reporting COVID-19 coronavirus cases: based on the number of tests...

    I just want to boast a bit.

    I stumbled across this study in my readings. Basically, it's trying to estimate how much we're under-reporting COVID-19 coronavirus cases: based on the number of tests done, and the number of deaths reported, the mathematicians modelled what percentage of cases we're detecting in each country.

    Australia is detecting the most coronavirus cases!

    If you click on 'Current estimates', you'll see a histogram showing the likely detection rates. The blue bars show the range of possible values for detection rates (and clicking on 'Table of current estimates' shows the numbers behind this graph). For example, at the top of the graph, Algeria is detecting between 2.7% and 7.8% of coronavirus infections, and according to the table, a point estimate of 3.4% coronavirus infections being detected. The next one down is the United Kingdom, which is detecting 3.6% of infections (somewhere within a range of 3.1% - 7.7%).

    And, way down at the bottom of the graph (they're shown from lowest detection rate to highest detection rate) is Australia, detecting 84% of cases (between 56% and 100%)!

    The top 5 are:

    • Australia 84% (56% - 100%)
    • United Arab Emirates 65% (38% - 100%)
    • Israel 60% (43% - 100%)
    • South Africa 56% (33% - 100%)
    • South Korea 55% (41% - 89%)

    (I can't find New Zealand, but I assume they would be high on this list.)

    And, in related news, Australia has reported less than 50 new cases every day for the past week.

    This is one table I'm happy to be at the top of!

    "Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oi! Oi! Oi!"

    4 votes
    1. vektor
      Link Parent
      Interesting read, the study. Just keep in mind the limitations they themselves list. Beyond those, I have a few possible points of uncertainty: Do we treat not-officially-confirmed-but-probable...

      Interesting read, the study. Just keep in mind the limitations they themselves list. Beyond those, I have a few possible points of uncertainty:

      Do we treat not-officially-confirmed-but-probable cases like official cases? In that case, our under-reporting wouldn't be so bad. (ETA: I.e. you get a diagnosis and treatment without lab result, so it doesn't show up in the data, but is far from an unknown case)

      The study tries to infer the under-reporting rate by just two numbers. Any variation in those for whatever reason (shitty hospitals, overloaded hospitals, stricter or less strict reporting guidelines, deaths at home, etc) will affect the outcome. The authors don't seem to use the data on how much testing is being done, which imo informs the under-reporting rate better than the death rate. If I have 100 deaths because I repatriated a lot of very bad cases from Wuhan, but I'm testing the population religiously and find barely anything, that's going to look real bad in that paper.

      4 votes
  6. [5]
    rogue_cricket
    (edited )
    Link
    Doing really well in NB, Canada. More recoveries than new cases for a while now, zero confirmed deaths but one poor patient is looking pretty dicey right now. Hope she pulls through. The last case...

    Doing really well in NB, Canada. More recoveries than new cases for a while now, zero confirmed deaths but one poor patient is looking pretty dicey right now. Hope she pulls through.

    The last case we had come through was the ONLY positive case in 450 tests. People absolutely do not understand ratios and I have given up attempting to explain them - they just keep getting hung up on how we only processed 450 tests that day. As if we've managed to test exactly the wrong people by complete chance, I guess, and if we tested thousands of people we'd find thousands of cases (with miraculously NONE of them requiring hospitalization) instead of just a handful more. The ratio would probably go up if we tested more, given the nature of the virus, but you're still WAY more likely to test negative than positive even if you're symptomatic enough to qualify for testing. The flu is going around, and it's allergy season too, so.

    The plan is to gently lift some restrictions on May 1st. We'll see how it goes. I think we're likely to reopen the Confederate Bridge for PEI-NB travel soon given they also have a really low infection rate. I'm feeling cautiously positive & I'm also getting some kind of Stockholm Syndrome for our minister of health and her daily updates. She has nice shirts and a soothing presence.

    3 votes
    1. [2]
      Algernon_Asimov
      Link Parent
      Actually, those people might be right. According to this study (which I explain here), Canada is only detecting about 17% of coronavirus infections (between a range of 13% and 37%).

      Actually, those people might be right.

      According to this study (which I explain here), Canada is only detecting about 17% of coronavirus infections (between a range of 13% and 37%).

      3 votes
      1. rogue_cricket
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        I can't pretend to have fully read the study, but I'm specifically talking about my province because the reality of my situation is materially different to someone who is elsewhere in Canada. The...

        I can't pretend to have fully read the study, but I'm specifically talking about my province because the reality of my situation is materially different to someone who is elsewhere in Canada. The outbreaks are quite "spiky" across the country, provinces handle their own healthcare and emergency measures (in terms of enforcement and business restrictions). Provinces all went into lockdown at different times (relative to their first cases) and have different lists of essential businesses.

        A broad look might be good to have statistically, but when talking about opening things up that is 100% a more granular, community-level decision.

        In NB we have 118 confirmed cases (97 recovered) and, again, no confirmed deaths. Even if I bump it to one as a thought exercise that's less than one percent of confirmed cases resulting in death (although the usefulness of such a small number is debatable). Australia, which is doing the best in that graph, has 71 deaths and 6600 cases, which is slightly over 1%. If those are the main factors weighted in the prediction I stand by my cautious local optimism.

    2. [2]
      vektor
      Link Parent
      can you explain that? I was under the assumption that we would test the highest-risk cases first, so if you test the most likely 450 and find 1, you'd expect to find the 2nd if you test 600 more,...

      The ratio would probably go up if we tested more, given the nature of the virus,

      can you explain that? I was under the assumption that we would test the highest-risk cases first, so if you test the most likely 450 and find 1, you'd expect to find the 2nd if you test 600 more, a third if you test 800, something like that. that way, your final tally could look like 3/1850.

      1 vote
      1. rogue_cricket
        Link Parent
        I figure there are more asymptomatic cases than we assume, but thinking about it that makes sense too.

        I figure there are more asymptomatic cases than we assume, but thinking about it that makes sense too.

        1 vote
  7. silfilim
    Link
    As a pedestrian walking a dog in a US city, it's so much safer and easier with shelter-in-place in place due to the reduced traffic. Almost no vehicle will be making a turn when the pedestrian...

    As a pedestrian walking a dog in a US city, it's so much safer and easier with shelter-in-place in place due to the reduced traffic. Almost no vehicle will be making a turn when the pedestrian light is green.

    I wonder if it'll be feasible to not ever go back to the previous level of traffic under the name of countermeasure against global warming. It may be easier to expand what we're allowed to do starting from here, just up to a sustainable level; harder to go back to the previous level and then put restriction on again.

    2 votes
  8. [2]
    Omnicrola
    Link
    I'm beginning to feel like I'm a broody teenager again. I sit in front of a computer most of the day, I only talk to "my internet friends", I don't leave the house, I only shower sometimes, and I...

    I'm beginning to feel like I'm a broody teenager again. I sit in front of a computer most of the day, I only talk to "my internet friends", I don't leave the house, I only shower sometimes, and I wander into the kitchen at odd hours for food. My mother would have flashbacks if she saw me.

    In general the warmer weather is helping, there's more to do outside. However it's not quite there yet. Friday it snowed several inches here in Michigan, though it didn't really stick and melted the next day.

    2 votes
    1. vektor
      Link Parent
      I'm having flashbacks from reading this :D

      I'm having flashbacks from reading this :D

      2 votes
  9. [5]
    krg
    Link
    If reaction to social isolation can be seen as a dichotomy, I'm certainly on the side of Harland Williams' character in Rocketman. The data with regards to COVID-19 and its interpretation seems to...

    If reaction to social isolation can be seen as a dichotomy, I'm certainly on the side of Harland Williams' character in Rocketman.

    The data with regards to COVID-19 and its interpretation seems to be changing on a daily basis, but from what I gather the more we collect, the less serious this pandemic seems. That is, a lot more people may have probably been infected than previously though, and those people showed no symptoms, didn't have to be hospitalized, and didn't die...thus driving down the fatality rate of the disease. Of course, that doesn't negate the damage that it could inflict should one be symptomatic. A conservative tactic is probably the best to take. After all, it's better to be safe than sorry.

    But I suspect we're through the thick of it and will look back on this period with with glasses of variously tinted lenses soon enough. Feel free to flay me if I'm wrong.

    note: these opinions are uneducated and only slightly-founded and pertain to the United States. Southern California, in particular.

    1 vote
    1. [4]
      vektor
      Link Parent
      More asymptomatic people could also mean this thing is going to be a lot harder to contain with "smart" measures like quarantining only people with symptoms. I.e. we're going to need to stay...

      More asymptomatic people could also mean this thing is going to be a lot harder to contain with "smart" measures like quarantining only people with symptoms. I.e. we're going to need to stay locked down because tracing is harder than previously thought and "stay home if sick" doesn't work.

      All of that assuming asymptomatic people are contagious.

      Also: Don't trust the reporting of "many people are actually already through with this disease" without peer review. There's a lot you can mess up there to get wrong results, from accidentally detecting antibodies to the common cold to taking a non-representative sample, e.g. through volunteers. I think the study in Santa... Clara? or so, that was based on volunteers. That has serious risk of overreporting.

      1 vote
      1. [2]
        Algernon_Asimov
        Link Parent
        That's not an assumption. That's fact. Asymptomatic people are infectious.

        All of that assuming asymptomatic people are contagious.

        That's not an assumption. That's fact. Asymptomatic people are infectious.

        2 votes
        1. vektor
          Link Parent
          I was (implicitly) thinking something along the lines of "sure, some of the asymptomatic cases are known to be infectious, but we don't know that for the less severe cases, which are likely the...

          I was (implicitly) thinking something along the lines of "sure, some of the asymptomatic cases are known to be infectious, but we don't know that for the less severe cases, which are likely the ones avoiding early detection." It took your comment for me to realize that asymptomatic cases do not know of a thing such as severity.

          Oh, and initially the reporting didn't differentiate between pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in terms of infectiousness. But that's buffed out now. We do know though that asymptomatic cases are much less infectious.

          1 vote
      2. krg
        Link Parent
        i was only commenting on the "deadly" factor. certainly current quarantining edicts ought to apply to all of the population. hence "better safe than sorry." but that's tangential to the POTENTIAL...

        i was only commenting on the "deadly" factor. certainly current quarantining edicts ought to apply to all of the population. hence "better safe than sorry." but that's tangential to the POTENTIAL fact that the virus is less deadly than initially thought. i've looked at the peer-reviewed data and many responses to the peer-reviewed data (usually critical in nature). i'm only one non-expert person deriving conclusions based on who seems trustworthy in their conclusions. I think many people are following that same route.

        other thing: it seems people have only a certain tolerance for following direction. and already more people are breaking quarantine. many models assume proper measures are being followed. I guess we'll see the results of human indiscretion soon enough.

        2 votes