7 votes

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported

5 comments

  1. [5]
    skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.

    Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.

    If the same level of underreporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000

    To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.

    1. [4]
      vakieh
      Link Parent
      It gets a bit interesting when you try to pin down the 'cause' of a death. If a hospital is overloaded with patients and something that would normally be caught isn't and someone dies, is that...

      It gets a bit interesting when you try to pin down the 'cause' of a death. If a hospital is overloaded with patients and something that would normally be caught isn't and someone dies, is that death the result of COVID? If closing down the economy of a region causes someone to lose their job/house/random entertainment and pushes them over the edge to suicide, is that death the result of COVID?

      Stress-caused heart attacks, fatigue-influenced road accidents, domestic violence exacerbated by being cooped up inside, increase in poverty causing an increase in violent crime - there are so many ways for people to die 'as a result of COVID-19' without being 'as a result of COVID-19'.

      7 votes
      1. [3]
        cfabbro
        Link Parent
        Could those related deaths really account for a 60% increase in the overall death rate though? That seems unlikely to me, especially since there are potentially just as many instances where deaths...

        Could those related deaths really account for a 60% increase in the overall death rate though? That seems unlikely to me, especially since there are potentially just as many instances where deaths have actually quantifiably decreased due to social distancing and the lockdowns (e.g. 50% less traffic accident fatalities in CA).

        1. [2]
          vakieh
          Link Parent
          Not the argument I'm making at all... The point is the death toll is going to be pinned down at a number where that number may not reflect the true toll at all.

          Not the argument I'm making at all...

          The point is the death toll is going to be pinned down at a number where that number may not reflect the true toll at all.

          3 votes