25 votes

New state-level model from Imperial College London suggests that epidemic is not under control in most American states, predicts major surge in cases and deaths over next two months

18 comments

  1. [9]
    hhh
    (edited )
    Link
    anecdotally but this makes perfect sense with what i've been seeing around me. yesterday one of my neighbors held a party. today another had a bunch of people over at their pool. a week ago I was...

    anecdotally but this makes perfect sense with what i've been seeing around me. yesterday one of my neighbors held a party. today another had a bunch of people over at their pool. a week ago I was driving past a restaurant and the parking lot was full.
    it seems like boredom/selfishness combined with governors bending under trump's/protestors' pressure has made social distancing optional at best.
    overall it's pretty hard to stay hopeful for how the country will fare with the pandemic or as a whole.

    18 votes
    1. [5]
      hhh
      Link Parent
      it's especially painful reading pieces such this or this on what it would be like to have a populace and/or government that took this crisis seriously. is our country just too big? too polarized?...

      it's especially painful reading pieces such this or this on what it would be like to have a populace and/or government that took this crisis seriously. is our country just too big? too polarized? i don't know. it's disheartening either way.

      15 votes
      1. [2]
        Omnicrola
        Link Parent
        We'll never know, sadly. Bad leadership is not helping, for sure. But good leadership still has it's limits both legally and practically. Even with a president who took a more proactive approach,...

        We'll never know, sadly. Bad leadership is not helping, for sure. But good leadership still has it's limits both legally and practically. Even with a president who took a more proactive approach, there would certainly have been governors and mayors that resisted. And the nutcases protesting in Michigan and other places would still have happened.

        Trust has a lot to do with it I think. Trust in US government keeps dropping [1] [2]. When you don't trust something on a normal day, why would you trust them in an emergency? Should you even believe that there is an emergency?

        Comparatively, trust in New Zealand's government is relatively high [3] so there fact that their PM asked them all to stay home and they actually did it is less surprising.

        What's the answer? I dunno. This is a systemic long running tend that is independent from any particular president, party, or legislature. The solutions if they come will be hard, long, and manifold. I hope I live to see them.

        1 - http://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/11/11-23-2015-Governance-release.pdf

        2 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2018/01/22/the-countries-that-trust-their-government-most-and-least-infographic/#27829c86777a

        3 - http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-social-indicators/Home/Trust%20and%20participation%20in%20government/trust-govt-instit.aspx

        8 votes
        1. Deimos
          Link Parent
          Less hesitation and denial alone could have made a really massive difference too though. Columbia University released some modeled results a few days ago that estimated that starting the lockdowns...

          Less hesitation and denial alone could have made a really massive difference too though. Columbia University released some modeled results a few days ago that estimated that starting the lockdowns a week earlier could have resulted in 36,000 fewer deaths, and 54,000 if it had been two weeks earlier (that's a link to a NYTimes article about the research, but the actual paper is here (PDF)). That's 83% of the deaths they think could have been avoided by implementing measures a little earlier.

          If there's anything that the hardest-hit countries seem to have in common, it's that they took too long to react, both from legitimate unawareness (Italy) and deliberate denial (US, Russia, Brazil).

          15 votes
      2. knocklessmonster
        Link Parent
        I think our country is too big, on top of the cultural issues that are leading to polarization. It's hard to fight something like that with a population as large, widespread and diverse as ours...

        I think our country is too big, on top of the cultural issues that are leading to polarization. It's hard to fight something like that with a population as large, widespread and diverse as ours without having either unilateral nationwide trust in a reliable government, or the ability to force compliance nationwide.

        There are also all sorts of other political and cultural differences that cause these issues, but I think they generally come from regional disconnects from the country as a whole. In California, we don't know what it's like in Alabama, who doesn't know how it is in Nebraska. Regional politics differ, and are arguably changed by education and definitely by local culture. We're diverse enough to be five different countries (or arguably any arbitrary number), rather than one country with 50 federated, "unified" states, and this causes a lot of issues, especially in a nationwide crisis like this.

        6 votes
      3. NoblePath
        Link Parent
        Part of the problem is trans-generational trauma, or something like it. The trauma can be at a group or community level. Essentially, the angry electorate is suffering from unresolved trauma and...

        Part of the problem is trans-generational trauma, or something like it. The trauma can be at a group or community level. Essentially, the angry electorate is suffering from unresolved trauma and so recreates the kind of relationship that perpetuates the trauma. The reason this happens is due to a miswired (by early-life trauma) reward pathway in the brain. It works a lot like addiction, where the trauma event creates a similar effect in the brain as would a drug.

        2 votes
    2. [3]
      Akir
      Link Parent
      Yeah. I can completely understand people becoming impatient for things to return to normal. That is just human nature - people socialize. But on the other hand I do not understand how consistently...

      Yeah.

      I can completely understand people becoming impatient for things to return to normal. That is just human nature - people socialize.

      But on the other hand I do not understand how consistently we elect politicians who do not value human life. I can't understand people who think that they will go to hell if they don't go to church, but do not care about the number of people who would die for them to have that privlage. The only thing I can imagine is that they are all psychopaths, but I would rather not think about such a possibility.

      6 votes
      1. Omnicrola
        Link Parent
        I can't find the article at the moment, but there was one a few years ago describing how unnatural it is to be concerned with large groups on an emotional level. For example, if you hear about a...

        I can't find the article at the moment, but there was one a few years ago describing how unnatural it is to be concerned with large groups on an emotional level. For example, if you hear about a neighbor who's dog was hit by a car you would feel sad. But if you hear that several thousand people died last year due to wars in other countries, its harder to emotionally connect with. Because you (presumably) didn't actually know any of those people, because the number is so large, and because it's geographically removed from you. It becomes less of a real thing, and more of an abstract concept. It takes thoughtfulness and effort to internalize something like that and develop empathy for those people you will never meet. Which is hard, and is harder when your day to day life has been disrupted and nobody you know has actually gotten sick from COVID19.

        I know I personally am starting to adapt to this state of things as some kind of new normal. I haven't gotten sick, and nobody I know well has either. The avalanche of COVID19 news has become normalized and is fading into daily background noise. The part of me that was motivated to stay home because of fear for myself and others is fading, and all that is left is the rational part that knows that this is far from over.

        11 votes
      2. stu2b50
        Link Parent
        I can understand that one specifically pretty easy, actually. If you actually, really truly believe in that theology, then who cares? God's, like, omnipotent and stuff. He'll figure out the...

        I can't understand people who think that they will go to hell if they don't go to church, but do not care about the number of people who would die for them to have that privlage.

        I can understand that one specifically pretty easy, actually. If you actually, really truly believe in that theology, then who cares? God's, like, omnipotent and stuff. He'll figure out the consequences, just do what he says.

        If the people who die are Christian, then they get to go to heaven earlier. If they're not (or the wrong kind of Christian), then they go to hell like they deserve to.

        5 votes
  2. [8]
    MonkeyPants
    Link
    Is it my imagination, or are countries that I associate with wearing masks for flu doing really well with Covid ?

    Our mobility scenarios do not account for additional interventions that may be implemented, such as mass testing and contact tracing. It is also likely that when interventions are lifted behaviour may modify the effect sizes of mobility and reduce the impact of mobility on transmission. Factors such as increased use of masks and increased adherence to social distancing are examples. Given these factors we caution the reader to look at our scenarios as pessimistic, but illustrative of the potential risks.

    Is it my imagination, or are countries that I associate with wearing masks for flu doing really well with Covid ?

    3 votes
    1. Algernon_Asimov
      Link Parent
      That has been noted repeatedly by experts. It's a combination of a couple of factors: They're often Asian countries, which have a more collectivist outlook than western countries, which are more...

      are countries that I associate with wearing masks for flu doing really well with Covid ?

      That has been noted repeatedly by experts. It's a combination of a couple of factors:

      • They're often Asian countries, which have a more collectivist outlook than western countries, which are more individualist.

      • They're often countries that suffered through SARS a decade ago, so they have experience managing epidemics.

      • They're often countries that got used to wearing masks back in the time of SARS.

      6 votes
    2. [6]
      stu2b50
      Link Parent
      I'm a little confused as to what you're questioning. The quoted paragraph seems to agree with you. It's saying that behavior like wearing masks and adhering to social distancing would decrease the...

      Is it my imagination, or are countries that I associate with wearing masks for flu doing really well with Covid ?

      I'm a little confused as to what you're questioning. The quoted paragraph seems to agree with you. It's saying that behavior like wearing masks and adhering to social distancing would decrease the spread of the virus in areas that lift shelter-in-place orders, and as such the model is more of a worse-case scenario.

      So it would indeed make sense that places which wear masks more often are better equipped for this pandemic.

      1. [5]
        MonkeyPants
        Link Parent
        I was wondering if anyone had any hard data on how much a difference wearing a mask has on the R0. I would presume not, otherwise they would have folded it into the study.

        I was wondering if anyone had any hard data on how much a difference wearing a mask has on the R0.

        I would presume not, otherwise they would have folded it into the study.

        1. [4]
          Algernon_Asimov
          Link Parent
          No, you were wondering whether countries where people habitually wore masks were doing really well with COVID-19. If you want to know whether masks reduce the incidence of infection, that's a...

          I was wondering if anyone had any hard data on how much a difference wearing a mask has on the R0.

          No, you were wondering whether countries where people habitually wore masks were doing really well with COVID-19.

          If you want to know whether masks reduce the incidence of infection, that's a different question.

          The answer is: yes, masks reduce the risk of infection. The N95 ventilator masks protect the wearer of the mask. Home-made cloth masks protect other people from the mask wearer.

          1 vote
          1. [3]
            MonkeyPants
            Link Parent
            I did a little bit of digging, and the best I uncovered was Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review And yet neither Australia nor New Zealand are mandating face masks. @skybrian, not sure...

            I was wondering if anyone had any hard data on how much a difference wearing a mask has on the R0.

            I did a little bit of digging, and the best I uncovered was Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review

            The available evidence suggests that near universal adoption of non-medical masks when out in public, in combination with complementary public health measures could successfully reduce Re(effective-R) to below 1, thereby reducing community spread if such measures are sustained. Economic analysis suggests that the impact of mask wearing could be thousands of US dollars saved per person per mask

            And yet neither Australia nor New Zealand are mandating face masks.

            @skybrian, not sure if you have seen anything more relevant on the effectivity of masks on reducing R0 to below 1?

            3 votes
            1. skybrian
              Link Parent
              There is more than one way to do it. I think Australia and New Zealand are doing very well largely due to isolation? (Closing borders early and strict quarantine for incoming travellers.) Hawaii...

              There is more than one way to do it. I think Australia and New Zealand are doing very well largely due to isolation? (Closing borders early and strict quarantine for incoming travellers.) Hawaii is doing well for similar reasons.

              Despite all the articles I've shared, I'm not any kind of expert on masks but I think the evidence is that they're effective. There are questions about how many people need to wear them for it to be enough.

              Personally, I wear them on my (rare) shopping trips, but not when hiking, where I go out of my way to avoid people, standing a few feet off the path to let them go by.

              5 votes