7 votes

COVID-19 projections using machine learning

4 comments

  1. skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    They explain what they're doing in "How our model is different". Here's a review by Carl T. Bergstrom. The model says there's a 43% of US deaths passing 200,000 by October.

    They explain what they're doing in "How our model is different". Here's a review by Carl T. Bergstrom.

    The model says there's a 43% of US deaths passing 200,000 by October.

    2 votes
  2. [3]
    Bullmaestro
    Link
    I actually predict there will be a vaccine out by September. The world economy has suffered so much that I think big pharmaceuticals and regulators will be urged to push one out as quickly as...

    I actually predict there will be a vaccine out by September.

    The world economy has suffered so much that I think big pharmaceuticals and regulators will be urged to push one out as quickly as possible, regardless of any possible long term side effects. In April alone Britain's economy shrunk by over 20%.

    1. babypuncher
      Link Parent
      A woman can make a baby in nine months, but nine women can't make a baby in one month. There's only so fast that we can conduct clinical trials and ensure that a vaccine is both safe and...

      A woman can make a baby in nine months, but nine women can't make a baby in one month.

      There's only so fast that we can conduct clinical trials and ensure that a vaccine is both safe and effective. No amount of money or resources can really change that.

      7 votes
    2. skybrian
      Link Parent
      This argument from incentives is basically wishful thinking, unless you have read something about how they're actually going to accomplish it. In order to show that a vaccine candidate works,...

      This argument from incentives is basically wishful thinking, unless you have read something about how they're actually going to accomplish it.

      In order to show that a vaccine candidate works, people injected with the vaccine candidate need to be exposed to the virus. There are scientists arguing for human challenge trials as a way of speeding things up but I haven't heard about anyone who is actually doing them.

      6 votes