Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of July 20

I got into a discussion with an extended family member a few weeks ago about Covid. As I like to research assertions that are made to me, I put together this spreadsheet. Mostly just a mish-mash of stats pulled from usafacts.org, the CDC, and Wikipedia. I don't have an agenda and had simply tried to put together some visualizations about Covid19 and Influenza.

I would love to get feedback on the charts (especially as it relates to the r² degree) and any corrections/better sources.

Some personal updates from me: I channeled my anxious meltdown last week into some productive communication with individuals in my union and on my district's reopening committee. I'm still not yet reassured about our plan (and won't be until I get it in writing), but I am more confident that we are leaning towards remote learning. It seems like the primary concern isn't safety but more just logistics. A full re-open simply isn't possible given the restrictions we have to follow, but any sort of hybrid or shifted model to meet the restrictions looks nigh impossible to develop a workable plan for. It sounds alright on paper until you start getting into the nitty-gritty details, at which point it all but falls apart. Remote learning might win out simply because it is easier to implement, which is certainly a win but for all the wrong reasons.

I have also pushed the liability viewpoint, particularly in my discussion with my union. I feel that's an angle completely under-expressed in all the discourse I've seen about reopening, probably because America has seemingly lost faith in the idea of leadership ever being responsible for anything (and I don't blame us). I think superintendents, school boards, and any other key decision makers need to know that they will be held accountable for any bad outcomes that arise from their decisions, given that they are making these decisions with full knowledge of COVID-19's potential for harm. I think many of them would be less eager to re-open if they knew any deaths, or even just long-term harm in non-fatal cases, would fall on their shoulders.

Finally, my co-worker who tested positive last week after exposure from her summer job seems to be improving. I've kept in regular touch with her, and this weekend she had enough energy to get up and take herself for a drive just to get out of the house. She said that the fatigue is waning and she no longer has a fever. I won't feel comfortable until a little later (since she's not yet cleared two weeks), but an upward turn is good to see.

The Florida Education Association is suing the state of Florida and various government officials, contending that ordering an unsafe return to onsite instruction at public schools is a violation of Florida’s Constitution, which requires the provision of “safe” and “secure” schools: Florida educators file lawsuit to stop reckless, unsafe reopening of public school buildings

Governor of Missouri Mike Parson:

“These kids have got to get back to school,” Parson told Cox. “They’re at the lowest risk possible. And if they do get COVID-19, which they will — and they will when they go to school — they’re not going to the hospitals. They’re not going to have to sit in doctor’s offices. They’re going to go home and they’re going to get over it.”

He emphasized that people who are at high risk of becoming seriously ill should be protected but said most people in the state were smart enough to figure out how to stay safe without government interventions such as mask mandates.

There's been a major breakthrough in immunity research related to Covid-19. I've posted it as a separate topic right here.

The short, short version - we're about to kick Covid-19's ass.

RNC Convention Cancelled

Trump's now in the ironic twist of this Twilight Zone knockoff we call life.

Power outage started on Sunday, lasted until Monday afternoon, so I got work off. Because there is justice in the world, our remote system went down today, and my boss sent out a group chat about how he's taking volunteers to go back to the office. I had it, everyone I live with had it, and pretty much everyone else in the chat lives with someone at high risk, or is that person. So I volunteered ahead of getting voluntold, and we will see what happens next.

Edit: And we're back, yay...

As Coronavirus Cases Surged Here, FEMA Gave Mass. Least PPE Per Case Of Any State

By May 14, Massachusetts was at its peak with nearly 85,000 cases of the virus compared to Alaska which had only 383 cases, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Yet Alaska received 1,580 pieces of gear per case, while Massachusetts was handed 36. New York — with by far the most cases in the nation — was second-lowest at 45.

Though in fairness, apparently FEMA divided out PPE on a per capita basis rather than a per case basis as noted in later in the article.

Rural or less populated states like Montana, Alaska, Hawaii and Vermont received the highest total number of protective items — masks, gloves, shields — per positive case, AP data show. Beyond Massachusetts, other states like New York and California saw low amounts of PPE per case, despite having a huge spike in outbreaks. The analysis shows no clear bias toward states that lean Republican or voted for President Trump.

North Korea declares state of emergency as Covid-19 case reported

Sheriff reports 180 Monterey County Jail inmates tested positive

Monterey, CA: As the number of Covid-19 patients grows, local hospitals are finding ways to cope.

Representatives from all four hospitals began planning on how they would work together should this mysterious coronavirus come to Monterey County. It did come officially in March, and after Moreno issued a shelter-in-place order on March 17, the first two hospitalizations were reported on March 29; cases locally remained at what doctors say were manageable levels. That continued through April and early May.

Then came Mother’s Day, and within two weeks cases began to increase in a more pronounced way. The numbers fluctuate, but they have been on an upward trend. Moreno said on July 20 he doesn’t see that trend changing anytime soon. Hospitalizations began creeping upward into the teens, then 20s, peaking on July 16 at 54. (It dropped to 43 by July 20.) That has the hospitals’ doctors worried. Three doctors from CHOMP, SVMH and Natividad were alarmed enough to make a plea to the mayors of the county on July 10, calling on them to step up enforcement efforts. And this week, for the first time, the four hospitals are embarking on a public information campaign to educate residents about the importance of keeping up shelter-in-place and face-covering efforts.

There are enough beds and ventilators as of now, but medical workers don’t want to reach a point when there aren’t. SVMH Infectious Disease Specialist Allen Radner is nervously eyeing rising numbers of cases among inmates at Monterey County Jail, and prison inmates in Soledad. The very sickest incarcerated patients are transported to hospitals – as of press time, two Monterey County Jail inmates are hospitalized for Covid-19, down from four – putting more of a strain on first responders, healthcare workers, the number of beds, PPE supplies and even medications.

The CDC has released their guidelines for reopening schools: Preparing K-12 School Administrators for a Safe Return to School in Fall 2020

A Texas hospital overwhelmed by the coronavirus may send some patients home to die

Doctors at a Texas hospital along the US-Mexico border may decide to send coronavirus patients "home to die by their loved ones" due to limited resources, officials say.

Government and health officials in Starr County announced this week they are creating committees to review patients' cases at the Starr County Memorial Hospital in Rio Grande City.

At least 50% of the patients admitted in the hospital's emergency room have tested positive for Covid-19, Dr. Jose Vasquez, the county's health authority, said in a news conference earlier this week.

Want A COVID-19 Test? It’s Much Easier To Get In Wealthier, Whiter Neighborhoods

Figure 1 (most general)

Figure 2, San Antonio, Texas

Figure 3: Dallas, Texas

Anyway, read the article, it's long and thorough.

Coronavirus: Spain says outbreaks under control after UK orders quarantine

The UK's move to require arrivals from Spain to self-isolate for 14 days came into effect on Sunday, just hours after the change was announced, angering travellers and travel operators.

The airline industry reacted with dismay, calling it a big blow. The UK's biggest tour operator, Tui, has cancelled all mainland Spanish holidays until 9 August. British Airways is still operating flights, but said the move was "throwing thousands of Britons' travel plans into chaos".