Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of August 10

My usual personal update:

It is official -- I will be starting this school year remotely.

Deep inside, I really want to celebrate this, and privately, I am. I feel personally relieved. I haven't been sleeping well in weeks and anxiety about going back to work was eating me up. I can rest easier now.

I can't exactly be happy though, as nearly every parent I know is devastated. They understand the risks but more than anything else they need relief. They're tired, beleaguered, and facing an impossible situation: managing their own jobs and remote learning for their kids at the same time. A coworker called me in tears yesterday. She has two little children, one entering school for the first time this coming year. That child simply won't be able to sit quietly for hours in front of a screen while her mom's away doing her job. But her mom also can't afford to not work, nor pay someone else to help her kids. Make no doubt about it, this country's response to COVID-19 has directly failed parents, leaving them out to dry, offering them no support, and prolonging their difficult situations.

As I expected, the decision to reopen remotely was made less because of safety and more because they couldn't figure out the logistics of reopening with all the restrictions. In some ways, the things I've complained about here with regards to a lack of school funding helped effect this, because our district didn't do a lot beyond the bare minimum with their funding, so while they moved some furniture around and bought some hand sanitizer, literally nothing was done regarding ventilation or restructuring school environments. I think we got the right outcome for the wrong reasons, but I'm not about to complain about that. A right call is a right call regardless.

With regards to the response from the community, things immediately got ugly. I should have expected this given the tenor of everything in America of late, but I was honestly surprised. I'm not on Facebook, but based on what has been shared with me from friends and colleagues, it is an outright warzone right now. Local news organizations have shut down comments on articles, and several prominent educational stakeholders have received direct threats, both legal and personal. It's one thing to know those kinds of people are out there, but another entirely to see them in your own community.

I've known for a long time that this school year was going to be awful. For me, it was simply a question of will it be awful, or will it be awful AND I'll get to deal with daily exposure to COVID? I'm happy I can say no to the latter, but now that has put the "awful" part into sharp focus: I simply do not love remote teaching. I think I've got a lot of upcoming work to do in order to best figure out how to make the best of this setting.

Ultimately though, I come back to the idea that anything other than health and safety for myself and my students is just noise. Our lives are priority 1. They are the top concern. Nothing supersedes them. And a remote reopening is the only way to ensure that we're safe right now. So, privately, I'm joyous -- not just for myself, but for all the people that such a decision is protecting.

Over the weekend I was listening to a RadioLab episode that was talking about the observations some doctors have made that seem to indicate a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and COVID19 severity.

Then this morning I see that someone posted a paper studying that exact thing on reddit.

It's far from conclusive, the sample size is only 42 people. But hey, any good news is welcome at this point. At this point I'm just using it as further motivation to go outside and get some exercise (and sunlight).

California’s public health director resigns in wake of coronavirus data errors

Last week, state officials confirmed that as many as 300,000 records had not been processed by the computer clearinghouse system relied upon to provide to local officials the COVID-19 test results reported by labs on a daily basis. Two separate errors were identified — one related to a computer server outage, the other to the expiration of an electronic certificate for data to be transferred from Quest Diagnostics laboratories.

On Monday, the governor said the backlog of computer records had been cleared over the weekend.

Administration officials insisted they did not know the extent of the problem until after Newsom’s public event on Aug. 3 in which he expressed optimism that current case numbers — lower than some had expected — meant some progress in the state’s efforts. But some local officials were sent communications the week before from the state Department of Public Health acknowledging a problem with the CalREDIE computer system.

New Zealand has had a new cluster of cases show up after going over 100 days without any local transmission, and they don't seem to have any idea where it came from at this point. They're investigating the possibility that it may have even come in on the packaging of frozen food, though overall they don't seem to think that's likely.

Not sure if it has been talked about at all here on tildes, but This Week in Virology did an interview with a Harvard doctor named Michael Mina about the possibility of cheap daily tests and how such a thing could be the most effective means of combating the spread, pre-vaccine.

The interview itself is the first hour or so. MedCram (an amazing resource for learning about COVID, see my other post here if you haven't yet) did a 20 minute recap on the interview and offers some clarification on the technical details of Ct values and transmission thresholds.

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 98: At Home COVID-19 Testing - A Possible Breakthrough

A few days ago, MedCram themselves interviewed Michael Mina about these paper tests, talking about what needs to happen for these to be approved, how they could potentially change the lockdown landscape, and going over some of the more technical details. Again, it's about an hour long. They made a 5 minute summary video of the interview that goes over the highlights, but it appears youtube flagged it for some reason.

So I'll offer my own take on it. Take it with a grain of salt if you wish, but if nothing else go watch MedCram ep.98 at the very least if you'd like to know more.

My take on it is basically: This is how to reopen. Not with fuzzy guidelines and fingers crossed, hoping for the best out of desperation. But with billions of cheap tests made available so that people can test themselves at home, at work, at school, however frequently is needed. It doesn't require blood, it doesn't require skewering your brain with a swab, and doesn't require equipment or machinery. Somewhat similar to a pregnancy test, you'd have to spit in a vial and drop a piece of paper in.

In a perfect work, everybody could be testing themselves once or twice a week. But with the current political landscape, we would still have people who refuse to do it. But even taking that into account, this could drop the R-effective in a major way. There would likely still be outbreaks because people are idiots, yes, but this would enable sectors across the board to reopen with a level of assurance of safety that is currently completely absent.

I already wrote to Mayor Garcetti here in LA about it, and it seems I'm not the only one. The only thing that will get the ball rolling on this is the political will. But this is exciting news. I would love to be able to take a test, have a few friends do the same, and be able to tell each other we can hang out for the first time in ages. Or to be able to see my dad without worrying about the possibility that I could potentially be an asymptomatic carrier. We're still a minimum of six months out from a vaccine, assuming moderna or chadox pass phase 3, and even then rollout will be slow. We need something in the meantime in we have any hope of regaining a foothold of normalcy.

Skepticism Greets Putin's Announcement Of Russian Coronavirus Vaccine

Oooof. This is going to eat a few news cycles. Totally makes sense that someone like Putin would do this. I will be 0% shocked if Trump doesn't try to do the same thing. Especially if the Russian vaccine doesn't have any immediate and obvious drawbacks. Although I don't think Trump can actually force the FDA to do this, he would absolutely use this as more proof of Deep State conspiracies to point and say "look I'm trying to get everyone a vaccine, but they won't let me".

Some choice quotes:

The announcement of the new vaccine, dubbed Sputnik-V, has been met with initial skepticism, as it has yet to complete Phase III trials in which large numbers of people are given doses to determine if is safe and effective in a general population.

...

Putin said it would be available to the general public on Jan. 1, 2021.

...

The researchers said fewer than 100 people had been tested — and that the early registration of the vaccine could expose end consumers to unnecessary danger.

"This is a Pandora's Box and we don't know what will happen to people injected with an unproven vaccine," ACTO Executive Director Svetlana Zavidova said in a letter to Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko on Monday.

FDA clears saliva test for Covid-19, opening door to wider testing

The new test, which is called SalivaDirect and was developed by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health, allows saliva samples to be collected in any sterile container. It is a much less invasive process than the nasal swabs currently used to test for the virus that causes Covid-19, but one that has so far yielded highly sensitive and similar results. The test, which also avoids a key step that has caused shortages of chemical reagents used in other tests, can test approximately 90 samples in fewer than three hours in a lab.

Moreover, Yale intends to provide its “open source” testing protocol to laboratories around the country. Other labs can now adopt the method while using a variety of commercially available testing components that can reduce costs, speed turnaround times and increase testing frequency, according to the FDA. And because the reagents for the test cost less than $5, the Yale researchers estimated labs should charge about $10 per sample, although that remains to be seen.

Thousands of Bikers gather for a Motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota that is expected to last from Aug 7-16.

Expected to become a super-spreader event.

• Harleys Everywhere, Masks Nowhere: Sturgis Draws Thousands
• Sioux Nation will block bikers headed to Sturgis rally, citing coronavirus concerns
• 60% of Sturgis residents were against a motorcycle rally that brings in thousands but the city approved it. Here's why
• Scenes from 2020 Sturgis Rally, undaunted by Coronavirus

edit to add:

Smash Mouth is the latest band to play a concert for the unmasked masses

In last week's thread, we were talking about North Paulding High School in Georgia. They're now switching to a hybrid model, because they have at least 35 confirmed cases.

Woodstock High School, mentioned further down the thread, is now closing until at least August 31 because of 14 known positive cases, with more tests still pending.

Over 900 students and teachers in Cherokee County are quarantining now.

Coronavirus cuts off a Washington border town from two countries

How Point Roberts, an exclave of the US, has been affected by the Canadian border closure.

Residents of Point Roberts can cross the border only to work, pick up prescriptions or go to a doctor’s appointment in the mainland U.S., and they’re not allowed to stop in Canada at all during the trip. The only other way to reach the mainland is by private boat, or the twice-weekly $135 flight to Bellingham.

Don’t just look at covid-19 fatality rates. Look at people who survive — but don’t entirely recover.

Now, data is coming in behind the anecdotes, and while it’s preliminary, it’s also “concerning,” says Clyde Yancy, chief of cardiology at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. A recent study from Germany followed up with 100 recovered patients, two-thirds of whom were never sick enough to be hospitalized. Seventy-eight showed signs of cardiac involvement, and MRIs indicated that 60 of them had ongoing cardiac inflammation, even though it had been at least two months since their diagnosis.

If these results turned out to be representative, they would utterly change the way we think about covid-19: not as a disease that kills a tiny percentage of patients, mostly the elderly or the obese, the hypertensive or diabetic, but one that attacks the heart in most of the people who get it, even if they don’t feel very sick. And maybe their lungs, kidneys or brains, too.

It’s too early to say what the long-term prognosis of those attacks would be; with other viruses that infect the heart, most acute, symptomatic myocarditis cases eventually resolve without long-term clinical complications. Though Leslie Cooper, a cardiologist at the Mayo Clinic, estimates that 20 to 30 percent of patients who experience acute viral myocarditis end up with some sort of long-term heart disease including recurrent chest pain or shortness of breath, which can be progressive and debilitating. When I asked whether the risk of long-term disability from covid-19 could potentially end up being greater than the risk of death, Cooper said: “Yes, absolutely.”

At sunny Saint-Tropez, the party crowd brings champagne — and the coronavirus

[...] this summer, with the European Union banning travelers from the United States and Russia — two of Saint-Tropez’s top visitor homelands — the crowds have been heavy with middle-class French, who forsook their traditional vacations in less-costly locales such as Spain or Greece and opted for a summer road trip to France’s southern coast. Once E.U. borders reopened in mid-June, Danes, Germans and the Dutch joined the caravan, many in RVs. And when they arrived, after three months of sheltering in place, they wanted to kick back and forget about the virus.

[...]

As the summer progressed, some restaurants and beach clubs loosened up on the rules. Live music during dinner service brought mask-free dancing, which management shrugged off. With nightclubs such as the VIP Room and Les Caves du Roy padlocked for the season, some beach clubs became daytime discothèques, with waitstaff wearing masks on their chins — or not at all. In late July, Nikki Beach came under fire after videos circulated on social media of hundreds of unmasked partyers cavorting to music by French DJ Kungs.

Then came the outbreak. And the closures. And the new mask regulations, which the Var-Matin charmingly dubbed the “Bal Masqué,” or masquerade ball. On Saturday, the paper reported two more fashionable restaurants in town — the Salama and the Gaïo — had closed shop, and Siri, the deputy mayor, said the sub-prefect “envisions other closures as a preventive measure if health measures are not more effectively put in place.”

Boston Globe: Your child’s a no-show at virtual school? You may get a call from the state’s foster care agency

(paywalled for me, but using an incognito window got around it)

Massachusetts school officials have reported dozens of families to state social workers for possible neglect charges because of issues related to their children’s participation in remote learning classes during the pandemic shutdown in the spring, according to interviews with parents, advocates, and reviews of documents.

In most cases, lawyers and family advocates said, the referrals were made solely because students failed to log into class repeatedly. Most of the parents reported were mothers, and several did not have any previous involvement with social services.

The trend was most common in high-poverty, predominantly Black and Latino school districts in Worcester, Springfield, Haverhill, and Lynn; advocates and lawyers reported few, if any, cases from wealthier communities.

Yet lawyers including Gregory said the aggressive approach was particularly inappropriate during a pandemic when families of all backgrounds frequently struggled to help their children engage in remote learning. During the spring, only 36 percent of parents who were surveyed statewide said their children participated in daily online classes.

Rather than “building bridges and building relationships” with the most vulnerable families, some schools defaulted to “punitive measures,” Gregory said. “There were so many kids with disabilities, language barriers ... who were having trouble engaging in remote learning. You shouldn’t infer anything about a parent, simply because a child’s not showing up on Zoom.”

NYT: Rapid Testing Is the New Velvet Rope

Dr. Rashid is there to administer rapid or real-time tests for coronavirus. She performs the procedure — either a finger prick or a nose swab — in the car, and then lets guests into the house only if their tests come back negative. The entire procedure takes less than 30 minutes. Consider it a pandemic pregame.

Suffolk County still lacks rapid testing infrastructure, and the private service is expensive: up to $500 per test, and not all insurance companies will cover the cost. Most doctors don’t even have kits to do the tests; patients willing to pay can wait up to a week for an appointment at the offices that have them in New York City.

Another example of how the pandemic magnifies pre-existing problems in society such as vast income & wealth inequality.

A busy day came after a drive-in “Safe & Sound” concert, where the chief executive of Goldman Sachs performed, at the end of July. Concertgoers, who paid $1,250 per car to attend, were supposed to stay in their cars, but social media showed crowds dancing by the stage.

(São paulo) Governor João (John) Dória has tested positive for COVID-19

At 62 years old, he is the 11th governor to get the virus.

Also, you know when they moved back the date of "presential classes"?
They also announced everyone will pass, no matter what.

(both the articles are in Portuguese BTW. If anyone can find an English source that cares, please reply. Also I use preformatted as an "editor's note" thing.)

So it's anarchy then? What now?