9 votes

Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of October 26

This thread is posted weekly, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!

20 comments

  1. [2]
    kfwyre
    (edited )
    Link
    Quick personal update (it's been a while since my last one): Schools in the US aren't going to be able to stay open. I don't think we'll see the same unilateral closures we saw in the spring, but...

    Quick personal update (it's been a while since my last one):

    Schools in the US aren't going to be able to stay open. I don't think we'll see the same unilateral closures we saw in the spring, but I think there's going to be a whole lot of individual whack-a-mole going on for the rest of the school year. We have laid the groundwork at my school to pivot between in-person and remote models by cohort as needed, and we're now talking about dropping back to remote as a "when" not an "if". Case numbers are rising in my local area (as they are in much of the US), and with winter approaching, it's only going to get worse. I fully expect to hop back and forth between remote and in-person learning multiple times this year.

    I actually think we'd be seeing more closures already but, without the ability to mandate tests, basically nothing happens should parents refuse to test as all the protocols are only initiated in the event of a positive. You might have seen the article about the "mom code" where parents are advocating against testing their kids as a way of keeping schools open, and I can confirm that this is precisely what's happening already, and not just in Utah. I don't think it's as outright malicious or calculated as the article suggests, because I also think there's a HUGE social pressure to not be the case that messes things up for other people.

    Kids know when someone goes home sick, and kids know when someone doesn't come back the next day -- it's incredibly obvious and every empty chair simply becomes the seat for another elephant in the room. But, if the parent doesn't test, they don't have to report, and as far as all the protocols are concerned, nothing has happened and we continue on as normal. No positive test means no contact tracing, no disclosure, and no quarantining of others. No parent wants to be the one to have to report and potentially shut down classes or the school, in addition to potentially dealing with a whole bunch of blame should other students or teachers fall ill afterwards. Thus it's easier to just assume the worst and quarantine anyway and not put yourself in the community's crosshairs. Plausible deniability carries a lot of weight, unfortunately.

    12 votes
    1. schwartz
      Link Parent
      Personally I have a lot of anxiety surrounding schools. My kids aren't quite old enough but soon. In Massachusetts, it was left up to each individual town how they wanted to handle closures. My...

      Personally I have a lot of anxiety surrounding schools. My kids aren't quite old enough but soon.

      In Massachusetts, it was left up to each individual town how they wanted to handle closures. My town opted to stay full remote. Now they're being forced by the state to reopen and bring students back in, apparently because our Corona virus numbers are so low. Real galaxy brain logic if you ask me.

      5 votes
  2. RapidEyeMovement
    Link
    Why did COVID-19 hospital death rates drop? A new study from NYU offers several clues Recent patients are younger (averaging age 47 versus 63). Patients arrive at the hospital in better shape,...

    Why did COVID-19 hospital death rates drop? A new study from NYU offers several clues

    • Recent patients are younger (averaging age 47 versus 63).
    • Patients arrive at the hospital in better shape, with less-severe symptoms.
    • Medical staff are now well-versed in best practices, such as resting patients on their stomachs and avoiding ventilators for as long as possible.
    • Physicians have a small arsenal of pharmaceutical treatments.
    • Hospitals are less crowded.
    8 votes
  3. spit-evil-olive-tips
    Link
    Mayor of Los Angeles: The "essential relief" he's talking about is...checks notes...a $20 discount on parking tickets if you pay within 48 hours.

    Mayor of Los Angeles:

    “My administration will continue to do everything possible to support Angelenos through the unprecedented challenges we face,” Garcetti said. “COVID-19 has dealt a devastating blow to Angelenos’ financial security, and these funds will provide essential relief to our residents during this moment of economic upheaval.”

    The "essential relief" he's talking about is...checks notes...a $20 discount on parking tickets if you pay within 48 hours.

    7 votes
  4. fan
    Link
    User from a super niche country in ME here, just got over with another curfew, beaches recently got closed again, schools are probably opening in November, yada yada How's it coming along for y'all?

    User from a super niche country in ME here, just got over with another curfew, beaches recently got closed again, schools are probably opening in November, yada yada
    How's it coming along for y'all?

    6 votes
  5. [3]
    Adys
    Link
    I will let the Brussels Times' wonderful article from today summarize the situation here in Belgium: L_CKD_WN

    I will let the Brussels Times' wonderful article from today summarize the situation here in Belgium:

    L_CKD_WN

    Belgium’s situation is starting to feel a little like a crossword clue that everyone is pretty sure they know the answer to.

    France has it, Marc Van Ranst wants it (8 Letters)

    By this point, 6 of the letters have been filled out, the people over every shoulder are starting to shout the answer, but instead, the person with the pen is trying to fit CLOSEBARS and MASKSMAYBE into the slot, only to find it isn’t quite working.

    6 votes
    1. [2]
      Deimos
      Link Parent
      Looks like they're going with the lockdown now: Belgium imposes lockdown, citing "health emergency" due to influx of COVID-19 cases
      4 votes
      1. Adys
        Link Parent
        Yeah … it sucks. I'm pretty heartbroken at the thought we're going back into lockdown for probably another 6-8 weeks :( And it won't be the last either… I'm expecting another one in March or April…

        Yeah … it sucks. I'm pretty heartbroken at the thought we're going back into lockdown for probably another 6-8 weeks :(

        And it won't be the last either… I'm expecting another one in March or April…

        6 votes
  6. [4]
    Omnicrola
    Link
    As @kfwyre noted in last week's COVID thread, wastewater testing is catching on with schools:...
    5 votes
    1. [3]
      kfwyre
      Link Parent
      This was a great article and helped give a lot more context to what I stumbled onto last week. Thanks for posting it and for the ping. Also, the Boston wastewater data is now updating daily and it...

      This was a great article and helped give a lot more context to what I stumbled onto last week. Thanks for posting it and for the ping.

      Also, the Boston wastewater data is now updating daily and it does not look good.

      9 votes
      1. [2]
        jzimbel
        Link Parent
        It really does not look good. I can see why though—the pandemic fatigue is rampant. I went to City Hall to vote yesterday since my mail-in ballot never arrived after 3 weeks of waiting, and the...

        It really does not look good. I can see why though—the pandemic fatigue is rampant. I went to City Hall to vote yesterday since my mail-in ballot never arrived after 3 weeks of waiting, and the lack of compliance downtown is unreal. And let’s not even get into how unsafe the voting process they’d set up there felt. If you or anyone else in Boston has yet to vote in person, I’d recommend steering clear of City Hall.

        10 votes
        1. kfwyre
          Link Parent
          I'm not actually in Boston -- I'm just a curious onlooker. Good to hear from someone on the ground there though, although disappointing to hear people aren't taking things seriously. I see the...

          I'm not actually in Boston -- I'm just a curious onlooker. Good to hear from someone on the ground there though, although disappointing to hear people aren't taking things seriously. I see the same thing where I am, unfortunately. Some of my coworkers are meeting up in the same rooms, unmasked, to talk and eat lunch together.

          Stay safe. I really hope there's some other reason that explains the wastewater spike and that it's not foretelling huge spread for your city.

          6 votes
  7. skybrian
    Link
    COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising, But Fatality Rates Have Improved [...] [...]

    COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising, But Fatality Rates Have Improved

    We are now a few weeks into the third surge of new cases in the United States, and deaths have begun rising once again, driven largely by the intense outbreaks underway in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. As cases rise across the country, we expect to see widespread increases in reported deaths as well. The higher the case numbers go, the greater number of deaths we expect to be reported in the ensuing weeks and months. As US fatality counts rise, it’s worth reiterating that the deaths reported by states and territories are almost certainly a significant undercount.

    [...]

    This pattern in the data we compile is borne out by a recent finding that in one large New York healthcare system, patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had a greater than 25 percent chance of dying at the beginning of the pandemic. By August, COVID-19 patients admitted to the same hospital system had a less than eight percent chance of dying.

    [...]

    These improvements are worth celebrating, but it’s important to reiterate that if current (or future) US outbreaks get significantly worse, hospitals could be overwhelmed, resulting in worse outcomes for patients. We are now seeing reports from Texas and Utah that hospitals are near or over capacity, and in Wisconsin, the state has opened a field hospital to handle a surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations. Nevertheless, based on the data we have seen to date, we have reason to hope that the United States is unlikely to return to the death rates of New York City’s catastrophic spring.

    5 votes
  8. [3]
    skybrian
    Link
    Iran's Covid death toll may be four times the government's official tally, says top doctor
    3 votes