6 votes

Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of June 14

This thread is posted weekly, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!


  1. [2]
    Do excess deaths [in India] suggest mortality crossed one million?

    Do excess deaths [in India] suggest mortality crossed one million?

    Based on data from the Civil Registration System, from January to May this year Madhya Pradesh reported 42 times excess deaths while Andhra Pradesh reported 34 times excess deaths. In comparison, Tamil Nadu reported 6.2 times more deaths from April last year to May 2021, and Karnataka reported five times the reported deaths in 2021.

    The excess deaths in the four large States have exceeded 0.5 million in the first five months of 2021 as against around 46,000 reported COVID-19 deaths in these States this year. “Not all these ‘excess deaths’ need to be COVID-19 but they are pandemic-related, in the sense that we would not be seeing them if the pandemic was not around,” says Chinmay Tumbe, Assistant Professor at the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Ahmedabad and author of the book, ‘The Age of Pandemics’. “These four States comprise 21% of India and collectively are showing an under-reporting factor above 10. I would estimate the lower bound for excess deaths for all-India for the first five months of 2021 at 1.5 million.”

    3 votes
    1. skybrian
      Link Parent
      Mumbai’s third wave of Covid-19 could be twice as brutal as its second wave

      Mumbai’s third wave of Covid-19 could be twice as brutal as its second wave

      The western state of Maharashtra, of which Mumbai is the capital, could see the third wave of Covid-19 as early as in the next two to four weeks. The predictions and warnings from the state government’s health department are a consequence of several cities lifting their restrictions and life returning to a crowded normal.

      By the government’s own projections, the state could see twice as many cases of Covid-19 in the new wave as it did in the second wave, according to the Times of India newspaper.

      “Uncontrolled crowds and disregard for Covid norms like wearing of masks and avoiding non-essential movement are worrisome,” an unnamed official, present at the meeting between chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and the government’s Covid-19 task force, told Times of India newspaper. “Even in Mumbai, with certain time restrictions in place, there is free movement throughout the day.”

      2 votes