Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of July 12

One thing that's been bothering me lately is the lack of a formal end condition for the pandemic in a given region. I am starting to hear phrases like "[some past event happened] during the pandemic" or "[now we are] post-pandemic." But as far as I can tell, there's no consensus about this. I'm thankful that cases are presently low where I live, but my kids still can't get vaccinated. Until they do, I can't act as if this thing is behind us. Sure, my vaccine restored a lot of my personal normalcy but our family lifestyle is still dominated by masking and social distancing, for the kids' sake. Even apart from that I'm constantly concerned about new variants and breakthrough infections for myself.

Does anyone else have the creeping suspicion that these declarations of the pandemic's end are both premature, and based on little more than wishful thinking?

I would feel a lot better if there was some objective, formalized criteria for marking the end. Currently there's just too much room for political biases muddying the waters, and on the flip side when things truly are "over" it would be comforting to acknowledge that officially so people don't continue to worry needlessly.

Although cases are mostly pretty low in the US, the trends look bad: Current state of affairs: July 12.

Question for the crowd: what does vaccine availability and uptake look like in your area/region?

For those who haven’t been following, there’s another promising vaccine on the way.

The estimates in this story seem dubious because it's not like anyone can do a survey, but it still sounds pretty serious.

‘Everyone is dying’: Myanmar on the brink of decimation

Now in Thailand, I get over 200 encrypted texts per day from friends there. Until last week, most were promoting armed and political resistance to the coup. “Responsibility to Protect” and “No Fly Zone” came up over and over.

Now, 100% of the texts are desperate pleas for health assistance and an international humanitarian intervention. “We need help,” read so many social media posts and flash protestor signs these days.

COVID-19 rebounding in Orange County, other Southern California suburbs

Fourteen days ago, Orange County was reporting a weekly average of about 48 new cases per day. Now, the figure is 150. During that same time, averages grew in San Diego County from 92 cases per day to 344; in San Bernardino County from 55 cases per day to 215; and in L.A. County from 298 cases per day to 983.

[…]

Though cases in these counties are nowhere near the levels of the pandemic’s earlier waves — and there’s optimism the current uptick won’t grow into anything of that magnitude — health officials have long noted that increases in cases are the first warning sign, as more infections could eventually trigger corresponding increases in hospitalizations and, possibly, deaths.

The second phase is now also currently on display in Southern California. On June 29, there were 56 COVID-19 positive patients hospitalized in Orange County, state figures show. As of Tuesday, that number had swelled to 119.

Canada took a risk delaying second COVID-19 vaccine doses. Now, its vaccination campaign is one of the best in the world

Now, as Canada’s vaccination rate has skyrocketed in recent weeks — covering nearly 70% of the population with at least one dose, passing the United States’ 55% and most other nations — and its cases and hospitalizations have tapered, it seems that the risk is paying off.

[...]

As of July 9, Canada was quickly gaining on the United States’ fully vaccinated rate of 47% of the population, which has now slowed to a crawl. On June 1, less than 6% of Canada’s population was fully vaccinated, but on July 8, it had reached 40%, according to Our World in Data.

Delta Is Driving a Wedge Through Missouri - Ed Yong

[Mercy Hospital Springfield] is now busier than at any previous point during the pandemic. In just five weeks, it took in as many COVID-19 patients as it did over five months last year. Ten minutes away, another big hospital, Cox Medical Center South, has been inundated just as quickly. “We only get beds available when someone dies, which happens several times a day,” Terrence Coulter, the critical-care medical director at CoxHealth, told me.

Last week, Katie Towns, the acting director of the Springfield–Greene County Health Department, was concerned that the county’s daily cases were topping 250. On Wednesday, the daily count hit 405. This dramatic surge is the work of the super-contagious Delta variant, which now accounts for 95 percent of Greene County’s new cases, according to Towns. It is spreading easily because people have ditched their masks, crowded into indoor spaces, resumed travel, and resisted vaccinations. Just 40 percent of people in Greene County are fully vaccinated. In some nearby counties, less than 20 percent of people are.

[…]

Those ICUs are also filling with younger patients, in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, including many with no underlying health problems. In part, that’s because elderly people have been more likely to get vaccinated, leaving Delta with a younger pool of vulnerable hosts. While experts are still uncertain if Delta is deadlier than the original coronavirus, every physician and nurse in Missouri whom I spoke with told me that the 30- and 40-something COVID-19 patients they’re now seeing are much sicker than those they saw last year. “That age group did get COVID before, but they didn’t usually end up in the ICU like they are now,” Jonathan Brown, a respiratory therapist at Mercy, told me. Nurses are watching families navigate end-of-life decisions for young people who have no advance directives or other legal documents in place.

Almost every COVID-19 patient in Springfield’s hospitals is unvaccinated, and the dozen or so exceptions are all either elderly or immunocompromised people. […]

How vaccine-skeptic France and Germany came to support near-mandates

[...] the European Union is using digital covid certificates, with scannable QR codes that quickly show if someone has been vaccinated, tested negative or recovered from covid-19. The certificates were designed with the primary goal of easing movement across borders, but many E.U. countries are using them internally, as well.

In Germany, vaccinated people have gained privileged access to restaurants and bars that would otherwise require a recent negative coronavirus test. Some of those restrictions have now been lifted because of low caseloads. But rules could be tightened again, as the European CDC predicts incidence rates across the bloc to triple within the next two weeks because of the delta variant.

[...]

In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced this past week that people would have to flash their certificates before entering trains, planes, restaurants, cafes and many other places starting next month.

[...]

The French government says the measures are essential to revive a flagging inoculation campaign — which had stalled at around 53 percent for first shots — and to prevent a deadly fourth wave of the virus.

HMS Queen Elizabeth: Covid outbreak on Navy flagship

The BBC has been told there have been around 100 cases on the aircraft carrier, which is part way through a world tour.

Several other warships in the fleet accompanying it are also affected.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said all crew on the deployment had received two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine and the outbreak was being managed.

I’m wondering when they got the vaccine, and which one? If everyone was vaccinated, does this mean herd immunity is impossible?

Covid vaccines for kids under 12 expected midwinter, FDA official says

The regulatory agency is asking for four to six months of safety follow-up data for kids under age 12, the FDA official said. Just two months of follow-up data was required for the clinical trials in adults.

[...]

As of July 8, more than 4 million children had been diagnosed with Covid-19, representing 14.2 percent of all cases, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. At least 335 children, ages 17 and younger, have died from Covid-19, according to the latest data from the CDC.