8
votes
Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of August 9
This thread is posted weekly, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!
My kid spent all of first grade online. Their teacher was great, under the circumstances, but kids need human interaction. It was not good for social or emotional development. Now we're about a month away from second grade, and we've been so excited about a return to in-person learning. No one more excited than my kid. The school has implemented many protocols about masking, distancing, hand-washing, etc., that we felt really positive about over the summer, what with vaccinations up and cases decreasing. We're grateful we don't live somewhere with a culture dominated by denialism and conspiracy theory.
Even so, now delta is wreaking havoc with our plans. Earlier this year it looked like there might be vaccine approval for kids under 12 around September, just in time for school. Now the FDA is saying "midwinter" and that's only tentative. School district is charging forward with plans they made months ago, with no public acknowledgement that the situation has changed. I have this sinking feeling delta is going to absolutely blast through school populations in a couple months and administrators have their fingers in their ears today.
I'm struggling to not be alarmist. I'm having a hard time assessing the actual risk. My kid has asthma and their pulmonologist has urged us to be vigilant. My biggest cause for dread right now is the fear that most of my peers (parents of my kid's classmates) have neither the resources nor the willingness to repeat the ordeal we went through last school year. They depend on the schools for childcare and meals. Another year at home simply isn't an option. And I'm not sure if we could do it either... we certainly don't want to, for the sake of our kid's development and our own sanity.
I honestly don't believe that any amount of scary new public health data could sway the school district from the course they have set, at this late stage in the game. They are fully committed. For that matter, we have already committed to sending our kid in-person too. The train is in motion and there's no getting off. But knowingly sending my higher-risk kid into a potential super-spreader event five days a week, when children's covid hospitalizations are the highest they've ever been, feels reckless and irresponsible. I want to bail.
Obviously I want answers, and direction, but I don't expect to find them here or anywhere. I just had to vent. This is really weighing heavily on me this morning.
I'm really sorry to hear that. It does feel like folks are ignoring what feels eerily similar to last fall. I think the way you're handling the situation is really the best you can do and I hope the rest of the parents hold the school/school board accountable. Good luck!
Also, not to stoke fear, but it does look like you aren't alone in your apprehension and people are starting to talk about it.
What Iceland’s rising Covid-19 case count tells us about vaccine efficacy
This was posted earlier, but removed as it was deemed misleading.
And this is a really misleading article. But it is misleading in a really interesting way.
If we go to the source, two thirds of all infections are among the vaccinated.
What is really crazy to me is how non-intuitive these numbers are. If 90% of the population is vaccinated, and the vaccine is 90% effective, you would expect half of all infections to occur from the vaccinated population. If 90% of the population is vaccinated, and the vaccine is 80% effective, you would expect two thirds of all infections to occur from the vaccinated population. (Refer to slide 11)
Which is kind of hard to get your head around.
And easy to misinterpret.
Yeah, one way to think about is to look at the extreme: if 100% of the population were vaccinated and at least one person tested positive, that would mean 100% of infections were among the vaccinated.
Since Iceland is one of the most vaccinated countries, the percentage is going to be on the high side.
For every percentage there are two counts, for the numerator and denominator and sometimes it’s better to look at those counts individually and think about what they mean. And maybe count something different, to get a different perspective?
Slide 3 does a nice job of showing infections per 100,000 of vaccinated vs unvaccinated.
Silver lining; I guess with half of American fully vaccinated, and most infections amoung the unvaccinated, it is unlikely that vaccine deniers will point to Iceland as proof of vaccine inefficiency?
An opinion piece from March:
We need to start thinking more critically — and speaking more cautiously — about long Covid
Personally, I think it's possible that studies looking at symptoms such as fatigue didn't ask the right questions to differentiate between post-viral fatigue and depression fatigue. When I first fell ill 15 years ago, I scored moderately highly on a depression survey - but the only questions I answered in an affirmative were about fatigue, and they didn't nearly encapsulate the bone wrenching tiredness and flu-like symptoms I got after even mild exertion. I don't have long COVID, but I can imagine if you'd put me in a study comparing me to a group of people who'd been through a traumatic experience, but you didn't ask questions specific to post-viral fatigue, post-exhertional malaise, and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, we might look pretty similar. Tired, anxious, some stomach issues. Probably just depressed.
It's definitely a good idea to approach things scientifically and not overreact, but since medical science is already bad at studying illnesses like mine (which mirrors long COVID), I'm not super confident they won't dismiss something that is actually there but they can't see because they don't know the questions to ask. Like... tons of so-called long COVID folks discuss high heart hearts upon standing, and many have been diagnosed with POTS or other forms of dysautonomia formally. Those conditions not only cause high heart rate - they can also cause fatigue, stomach issues/nausea, and brain fog. So why aren't we comparing tilt table (or NASA lean test) results between the groups, rather than just relying on subjective surveys? Ah well.
Between dismissal and overreaction is simply admitting you don't know what's going on and accepting that the causes of some things are ongoing mysteries. And hopefully remaining curious, or at least encouraging those who try to figure it out.
Yeah, that's the key - unfortunately a lot of doctors are pretty bad at saying "we don't know what's going on." If something can't be immediately figured out with some basic tests, well... guess there's nothing wrong, or it's "just" depression. Mental health is usually considered the default cause for currently unexplained conditions, rather than one option of many. (Doctors in my experience also generally aren't very well versed in the recent research into post-viral illnesses and common comorbidities like MCAS, connective tissue issues, CFS/ME, POTS/autonomic nervous dysfunction, and spine problems. Can't see what you don't know exists.)
There's a lot of worry in the chronic illness community that if long COVID isn't a mental health condition, it'll still be treated as one - like CFS/ME in the UK, or MS before MRIs were used. It might be a bit of an overreaction, but when you've had a neglected illness for decades, long COVID kind of feels like you're watching a slow motion replay of your worst nightmare.
Vox had a really good piece about the slipperiness of "long covid" back in April. Worth a read for some broader context about what might be going on here.
‘What is happening to me?’ The teenagers trying to make sense of long Covid
Man... that's heartbreaking. I definitely know what it's like to feel as if you've been hit by a train, and how weird it is when simply sitting in a car for an hour becomes too exhausting.
Schools are going to reopen in my area soon. I'm in an area with solid vaccination rates.
When I compare the local data from this point last year to this point this year, it's both good and bad. Hospitalizations and deaths are way down, but case rates are way up.
We had a spike last year that started around October and carried through the winter, peaking in January. Currently, my area is trending upwards, and our new case count now, in August, matches what where we were at in late October of last year.
I'm not really qualified to do anything but the weakest armchair analysis on this, but my gut takeaway is that it speaks to how infectious the delta variant really is. Even with widespread vaccination uptake in my area, we're seeing far more cases far earlier in the year than we did last year. I'm a little worried about what it looks like when we do roll around to October and everybody gets driven back indoors due to the approaching cold. That's a big part of what made our winter spike so bad last year.
On the other hand, if the cases at large are less severe (and according to the data they are, with hospitalizations and deaths way lower), it seems like this spike, even if it somehow ends up larger than the previous one, may be less devastating overall.
Why Is It Taking So Long to Get Vaccines for Kids?
Here's the letter from the head of the American Academy of Pediatrics:
Deep dive into stupid: Meet the growing group that rejects germ theory
What Do Full Hospitals Really Tell Us About COVID?
Governor here in Washington state just announced a vaccine mandate for all state employees, as well as private-sector healthcare workers
great. except...
April 15th was the date that WA made it generally available to everyone over 16. anyone not vaxed yet has had at least four months worth of opportunity. healthcare workers and people with comorbidities have had significantly more.
now they get an extra 2 months? (closer to a month if you count the 3-4 weeks between first and second shot, but I strongly suspect that if someone has had their first shot and is scheduled for a second a few weeks after the deadline, they'll cut people slack)
...and they exempt what is probably the largest single category of state employees.
as with virtually everything else we've done to try to contain covid - too little, too late.
Israeli Health Ministry official: Most people will end up being infected with COVID
[...]
Here’s why herd immunity from Covid is ‘mythical’ with the delta variant
Ed Yong has another long read in the Atlantic about where we go from here and what the end game looks like:
How the Pandemic Now Ends
I didn’t find it all that surprising, but here is someone else saying most will get it:
I really want more studies on long Covid, and how often it's occurring in vaccinated people. If a vaccinated person is not at risk for any sort of protracted symptoms, I would be on board with that quote. If vaccination status doesn't seem to change the chances of getting long Covid, then in my mind, the virus is still quite scary.
Los Angeles and Chicago schools will mandate teacher vaccinations
27 people aboard a Carnival cruise test positive for COVID-19
Breakthrough infections strike fear, worry in Marin’s music scene
Iceland has been a vaccination success. Why is it seeing a coronavirus surge?
[…]
[…]