15 votes

This graph shows that measuring #SARSCoV2 levels in municipal sewage almost perfectly predicts forthcoming #COVID19 cases with a full week's notice (R=0.994)

@brennanspiegel:
This graph is amazing. It shows that measuring #SARSCoV2 levels in municipal sewage almost perfectly predicts forthcoming #COVID19 cases with a full week's notice (R=0.994). It's one of several discoveries in this new study from @Yale: https://t.co/hZVdXebx2D. C-19 is #InThePoop

5 comments

  1. [5]
    bhrgunatha
    Link
    It's interesting that someone thought to correlate those two sets of figures but isn't it natural that they do correlate? I have no idea about the answer, so I also ask: is it unexpected or...

    It's interesting that someone thought to correlate those two sets of figures but isn't it natural that they do correlate? I have no idea about the answer, so I also ask: is it unexpected or surprising that sewage (and its human waste) will contain the virus in proportion to the number of people infected?

    6 votes
    1. [3]
      Algernon_Asimov
      Link Parent
      I think the point of this tweet is not that the two sets of figures correlate, but that one figure leads the other by about a week. In other words, we can use the presence of the coronavirus in...
      • Exemplary

      I think the point of this tweet is not that the two sets of figures correlate, but that one figure leads the other by about a week.

      In other words, we can use the presence of the coronavirus in sewage as a leading indicator of COVID-19 outbreaks. If we check a town's sewage today and detect the coronavirus, we know where there'll be a COVID-19 outbreak in that town in a week's time.

      Even better than that, we might be able to reduce the outbreak. If we detect coronavirus in a town's sewage today, we can lock the whole suburb down immediately to isolate the existing cases so that they don't spread. We don't need to know who is infected. We just make sure that everyone in the area stays home for the next 14 days.

      So, if there's 100 coronavirus infections in a town today, instead of letting that become 1,000 cases in a week's time, we lock down the town and keep the infections down to 200.

      That's the implied point of the tweet.

      9 votes
      1. [2]
        aphoenix
        Link Parent
        This exceptionally astute section bears repeating. Knowing when things are about to get worse is invaluable, especially right at the start of a big outbreak when many people can spread the disease...

        Even better than that, we might be able to reduce the outbreak. If we detect coronavirus in a town's sewage today, we can lock the whole suburb down immediately to isolate the existing cases so that they don't spread. We don't need to know who is infected. We just make sure that everyone in the area stays home for the next 14 days.

        So, if there's 100 coronavirus infections in a town today, instead of letting that become 1,000 cases in a week's time, we lock down the town and keep the infections down to 200.

        This exceptionally astute section bears repeating. Knowing when things are about to get worse is invaluable, especially right at the start of a big outbreak when many people can spread the disease while having no symptoms.

        7 votes
        1. Overzeetop
          Link Parent
          It's especially important now, because it means we can deploy PR resources to minimize the negative political impact by discrediting the local authorities before the outbreak picks up steam. We...

          Knowing when things are about to get worse is invaluable, especially right at the start of a big outbreak when many people can spread the disease while having no symptoms.

          It's especially important now, because it means we can deploy PR resources to minimize the negative political impact by discrediting the local authorities before the outbreak picks up steam. We can shuffle people around and change the statistical modeling to prevent what are (clearly) anomalous spikes and keep the economy open.

          sigh Can I just say that I hate the weaponization of information and social media?

          2 votes
    2. patience_limited
      Link Parent
      It's a little unusual for a virus with predominantly respiratory symptoms to shed through the GI tract. However, this was known to happen from the first SARS coronavirus outbreak in 2003 (SARS...

      It's a little unusual for a virus with predominantly respiratory symptoms to shed through the GI tract. However, this was known to happen from the first SARS coronavirus outbreak in 2003 (SARS spread in an apartment building was traced to a ventilation system that had an improper sewage vent connection). There've been sewage monitoring experiments since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.

      I'm guessing the PCR techniques for testing are better developed and more sensitive since that time, so it's a natural outgrowth of what we've learned about the virus. As to the strong correlation, that seems natural as well, but I'll withhold judgment until the paper is reviewed and released.

      7 votes