Mass testing is the best hope for normalcy after quarantine

stu2b50
2020-04-11T00:15:37Z

I'm sure something everyone has wondered at this point is simply what the plan is after the lockdown. Out of what's circulating in public policy circles, Paul Romer's plan is the probably the one with the most appealing results

https://paulromer.net/covid-sim-part1/

Basically, mass random testing--specifically, 7% of the population is tested every day, or 21 million, selected randomly.

Of course, 21 million random tests is an absurd number. But if it could be done, people could to some extent resume life, if the simulations hold to reality.

On the other hand, plans like

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-19-response

Have a few things in common. For one, they all involve incredibly advance and detailed contact tracing. They rely on the proliferation of mass surveillance similar to HK, where all US citizens would have to install apps, for instance, that track their location and ping them when they have been in contact with a COVID19 positive patient.

They also involve extreme limitations on travel, and one of them even has the forced drafting of immune citizens into the medical and food industries.

It's estimated about 80% of the economy could continue, and they will last until the minimum of vaccine (18 months - 2 years) or 14-20 months (herd immunity is achieved).

What does everyone else think? What do you think we should do after the lockdown?

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