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Is there any way to estimate how many people in a region currently have coronavirus?
I've always wanted to be able to run probabilities when considering doing something that could infect me with coronavirus. I know how many people test positive, how many are dying and how many are getting tested. But what I really want to know is what are the odds that a mask-less interaction with one person will infect me.
The approach I've used, and see used by those who are not Space Alien Cats (i.e., Internet randoms), is to look at reported deaths and work backward.
TL;DR: it's complicated.
But you might:
... and the resulting numbers are roughly the range of people infected 2--3 weeks ago, if your region has decent monitoring and reporting practices. Testing reports should give an indication of how that number has trended since.
Note that total cases does not equal active cases (the second is smaller), and that infectious cases (the ones you actually care about) are a subset of active cases. A course of COVID-19 typically lasts 4--8 weeks by my understanding.
By rough numbers, total infecteds are 6--8x the number of reported cases in the US and Europe. Wide-scale antibody testing would have to be performed to confirm this.
Explains why there hasn't been any push to do so in the USA. "Don't want to cause a panic" is a weird way I've heard phrasing "Don't want people to know just how bad we fucked up."
Not just in the US. Turkey's true case count is likely 2.1 -- 5 million, rather than the 925,000 currently reported.
And behold: "Turkey adjusts coronavirus cases up to 1.75 million" (10 Dec 2020).
Here is a link that allows you to look at the probability that someone at an even of size N people will have covid at a county level. It allows you to change the ratio of tested:total cases between 5 and 10.
Thanks. It won't tell me the probability of meeting with 1 person, but I figure I can invert the probability with this equation:
Which means that for a region where a 10 person gathering has a probability of 10% of an attendee infecting you, each person has a 1.05% chance of being infected.
Wouldn't you have to consider a few additional factors other than just number of people and current infection rate when estimating the risk, eg.
That's what this calculation is
The site says this:
So their estimate is naive enough for my math to work.
I thought the calculation was for:
Given you attend an event of a certain size.
Is the likelihood of a person attending the meeting the same in case they are infected or not?
With regards to the meeting location the likelihood of infection is probably higher in am enclosed space vs something outdoors. If the space is crowded or not probably also impact s the risk... But then again finding out those variables me might be impossible.