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World Health Organization warns covid-19 is likely to become endemic and the world will have to learn to live with it
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- Title
- WHO warns Covid-19 pandemic is 'not necessarily the big one'
- Authors
- Melissa Davey
- Published
- Dec 29 2020
- Word count
- 759 words
Just to make this clear, does this imply that the lockdown, mask mandates and online education could go on for several years to literally forever or am I misinterpreting something here?
If it’s the “literally forever” option eventually I’ll break and join team “fuck it”.
Edit: Or I could try to move to NZ
Edit 2: Looks like I can qualify for a Skilled Migrant Resident Visa even without a job offer. That's still no guarantee.
That team's first game is coming this April. If anyone thinks that any social measures of any kind are going to survive this summer they are dreaming of a fantasy-land. I pity any cops or other government entities that try to get in the way, too - they'll become convenient daily targets for people's frustration and learn to hate their jobs even more. Doesn't even matter which country or government, it's all the same at this level.
However, with effective vaccines and paying attention to this virus (which we ignored for the better part of two decades) it'll become exactly like the flu. Just another annoying cold weather bug that kills some tens of thousands every year like its cousins. The Oxford vaccine is $3 a shot and can be carried in a cooler with ice. That's game fucking over for Covid-19 and any of its progeny. People who are at risk will have to deal with it themselves, just like the flu - get the shot or take your chances.
Higher death rates would change this, but it's never going to have a higher death rate. That's maladaptive behavior for any virus this widespread and nature will take it from here. See if you can find a single bug like this that went from sissy to black death - it's never happened. The really deadly ones start deadly and learn to become less deadly so they have more opportunity to spread. It does not go the other way, and won't, barring some truly awe-inspiring cosmic fluke.
Had we been on the ball back when this was SARS and MERS and a handful of other variants, we'd have had the vaccine ready to go before we ever needed it, and we would have never even discussed a lockdown. That's the real lesson from this pandemic - pay attention to the bugs and stay ahead of them.
Too bad there's no money in that sort of prevention. Maybe people will pay a little more attention to their Vitamin-D levels. That's the only lasting change I expect from this mess. Well, that and this self-inflicted economic disaster. By this time next year that'll be the focus, not the virus. Turns out the virus was the pre-show. :P
I mean that was Europe this (2020) summer. Numbers were down, no measures around, everyone was waiting or talking about the second wave coming in autumn and winter, and you know what everyone did? Everything that they thought would become impossible soon. The Germans all went to fucking Greece and Turkey. Everyone travelled. Visited family and friends. Literally right now my country is opening up ski resorts with the idea that wearing FFP2 masks when waiting in line and sitting in a gondle is enough. Austria, Switzerland, France and Italy all had a scuff over who was going to open the ski resorts and cash in. Austria is I think the only country that has followed through and opened them, so heyo international tourists. I don't know what the chances of transmission are, because most waiting in line happens outside and you are inside the gondle for ~15mins max but it's fucking crowded I tell ya. I've seen the pictures shared across the internet of our skiing hotspots and they are fucking full.
As @teaearlgraycold said:
Most people will move towards this with the coming year I think. Everyone's kinda agreed that 2020 was fucked to hell for a multitude of reasons, and they are waiting for a better 2021. Politicians that talked about the 2020 holidays being normal are currently talking about the 2021 christmas holidays being normal. If this continues, 2 weeks of semi-open life to 2 weeks of lockdown with most leisure activities being forbidden anyway. My country disallowed tennis. TENNIS. You know the sport where two people stand ~25m apart lobbing a small ball at each other? HOW THE FUCK IS THAT A TRANSMISSION RISK?
I can see a lot of people joining camp fuck it. Corona isn't the black death. It has the potential to send our health services in Europe to their breaking point, but beyond that it bears little risk to those who aren't already at risk from other diseases. If the 85-year old retiree didn't catch covid, the next lung infection would've done him in.
Exactly the sort of thing that made me join team Fuck It a little while back. Ice rinks are extremely safe, and yet they're closed. (Meanwhile, swimming pools are open)
I wear a mask and am reasonably careful, but if the ice rinks stay closed in my country after the next regulations update early January, I'm on the next train to the closest country with an open one. I don't have that much time left with a body that can withstand some of the abuse of figure skating; I'm not waiting until the pandemic is over to find out my knees or ankles are now too fragile for jumps.
Anyone who follows my posts knows I've taken COVID pretty seriously since the beginning. But the measures in place need to be reasonable. And if a government wants to apply a very rigid policy to deal with COVID, then it needs to apply it severely and across the board, with results to show for it. No half-assing it with ridiculously overblown, ineffective prevention measures on one end, but leaving schools open because "it's hard on the parents", or swimming pools because "something about chlorine".
If the prevention measures don't otherwise strike a reasonable balance, people won't follow them, myself included.
Just to highlight my point again, here's the top two articles on the Brussels Times today.
I'll save you the reading: The first one details how there were christmas exceptions to the normal rules of indoor invitations, some of which are not in place for new years, how single people have one more invitation "slot", how there's three more slots for outdoors gathering, how children under 12 are not counted for outdoors but they ARE counted for indoors gatherings, how one contact can stay past curfew and sleep for the night, etc etc no I am not fucking making this up, I'm reading the article.
The second details how we're going to go ahead with winter sales but spread them over an extra day for "safety".
It's just… beyond idiotic. I'm not crazy, right? This is absolutely bonkers?
It doesn't make sense. Worst of all the bullshit measures like disallowing safe activities like Tennis and other sport drag down the actually worthwhile measures like masks, cause people think one's dumb so the other one has to be as well.
Exactly my worry. And it's especially easy for less informed but influenceable people who get pissed off by these to end up in the same circles where antivax people hang out ... And congratulations, thanks to rules nobody will follow, there's a new person who will be against the covid vaccine.
Sounds like a no, as long as vaccines continue to roll out as planned next year.
This seems like the important takeaway here. SARS-CoV2 will continue to be "a thing", but as long as people get vaccinated we should be able to go back to normal.
"Learning to live with it" could have some interesting repercussions for what global travel is, and means—for example, my country places returning citizens in terrifying quarantine camps for 2-4 weeks and requires them to complete multiple negative tests before they're allowed entry into the community again.
Under the context of an endemic COVID-19, what does the world look like for countries which have kept the virus out? Do we wait to re-open to other countries until the efficacy of the vaccines has been shown to reduce the spread of COVID-19, or just limit the symptoms? How many deaths would we accept in a post-vaccination world from COVID-19?
And broader: how are travellers treated around the world now? Will health-checks prior to flights become a thing? Will passports now contain health information and vaccination statuses? How strict will countries become with entry and exit?
I hope one positive outcome of this post-COVID world is it's the end of over-tourism. So many picturesque and beautiful places and towns on Earth have had their way of life, and their environment ruined, to cater to a global tourism market. But I doubt this is the end of that.
Assuming proper country-wide vaccination, and every country, or at least a majority, also doing nationwide vaccination, it'll look like the flu. It'll rapidly mutate to be less lethal, and you'll be strongly encouraged to get your annual flu+covid vaccine (which is already a planned program in response to this newly suspected endemic status).
My understanding is many countries turn people away who are sick anyway, and vaccine requirements are a thing. Even New Zealand isn't going to fight to keep it out forever, they're just really good at minimizing and eliminating spread when there is no other safe option. Vaccines are the only safe alternative to nationwide lockdowns, and NZ is working on vaccinating not only itself, but several other Pacific island nations.
This is a lot more doom and gloom than what the WHO actually said in this article.
Sorry, I didn't mean to come off as "doom and gloom", I'm just interested in other people's perspectives on the state and alterations of global travel post-COVID.