We recently welcomed a new baby and have been discussing whether she'll ever learn to drive. I love bets with long time horizons, so we put together a survey so friends and family could pick a...
We recently welcomed a new baby and have been discussing whether she'll ever learn to drive. I love bets with long time horizons, so we put together a survey so friends and family could pick a side. We kept thinking of fun questions to ask, so it grew into the survey I've linked above, which we're opening to the public.
It's short, fun, and totally informal. Thanks for looking!
Asking for an email at the end got me to thinking if Gmail will still be around in 16 years! I decided to give my bespoke, personal email that I can move around as needed instead. Fun little...
Asking for an email at the end got me to thinking if Gmail will still be around in 16 years! I decided to give my bespoke, personal email that I can move around as needed instead.
I think gmail being gone would be a bold prediction in and of itself. But using a domain you own seems like better and better practice for resiliency anyway. But yes, thank you and you're welcome!
I think gmail being gone would be a bold prediction in and of itself. But using a domain you own seems like better and better practice for resiliency anyway.
I hear that! there are a bunch of question we left off because, while interesting, we thought they'd be too sad. Things like "are there still polar bears" 😔
I hear that! there are a bunch of question we left off because, while interesting, we thought they'd be too sad. Things like "are there still polar bears" 😔
The Kakapo's are having their best year ever in 2026! If derpy little ground parrots are making it, I'm sure a charismatic apex predator like polar bears will still be here. The Great Barrier...
The Kakapo's are having their best year ever in 2026! If derpy little ground parrots are making it, I'm sure a charismatic apex predator like polar bears will still be here. The Great Barrier Reef, the Amazon forests, likewise, will need more help as well, but it'll still be there in 2041.
Way too many us-centric questions, in my opinion. I mean, anything I would be answering for a sizable subset of those questions might as well be a random choice because I don't have the slightest...
Way too many us-centric questions, in my opinion. I mean, anything I would be answering for a sizable subset of those questions might as well be a random choice because I don't have the slightest of a clue (or at least an interest) on almost anything related to those.
Yeah, that's fair. As mentioned in the description, you can skip anything you don't feel like you have the context for. But given we and most of our friends / family live in the US, we were asking...
Yeah, that's fair. As mentioned in the description, you can skip anything you don't feel like you have the context for. But given we and most of our friends / family live in the US, we were asking the questions that have been top of mind for us.
I had fun with it in any case, and given how interconnected the world is (or perhaps the anglosphere) I didn't find the scope of the survey to be excessively narrow to the US. Thanks for sharing!
I had fun with it in any case, and given how interconnected the world is (or perhaps the anglosphere) I didn't find the scope of the survey to be excessively narrow to the US.
Honestly I think the issue is less that there are too many US-centric questions (in absolute numbers there weren't that many) and more that there were absolutely zero questions specific to any...
Honestly I think the issue is less that there are too many US-centric questions (in absolute numbers there weren't that many) and more that there were absolutely zero questions specific to any other part of the world. Even with an American creator, for whom I set the bar pretty low when it comes to knowledge of European politics, surely the lowest hanging fruit like "will any more countries leave/join the EU" (or even "will the EU still exist" if we wanna get spicy) would've been doable on a quiz like this. Or even questions about countries that the US geopolitically has interest in, like "will the PRC have invaded and/or taken over Taiwan?" or "Who is in control of Iran?" I get that it's short and just for fun, but if you can include a question about whether Stripe will go public and then even have a follow up about its market cap, you can include even one question related to non-US politics.
commentary, and some of my predictions I appreciate the comprehensive inclusion of world population going to 0 billions, but if we have fewer than say, 1b we're probably not going to have the...
commentary, and some of my predictions
I appreciate the comprehensive inclusion of world population going to 0 billions, but if we have fewer than say, 1b we're probably not going to have the Internet anymore.
US states will grow to 52 to include 2 more, Puerto Rico and Guam, with discussions around the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands territories. Canada will not be a State and indeed isn't as much of a trading partner either.
Space tourism prices will vary wildly depending on how far into space and if Bea wants excursions like space walk while there vs "just" luxury dinner and video package.
This is kind of a side tangent, but I had such a depressing thought on my bike ride along the coast today. I saw a bunch of whale spout and though "We effectively live amongst marine dinosaurs"....
This is kind of a side tangent, but I had such a depressing thought on my bike ride along the coast today. I saw a bunch of whale spout and though "We effectively live amongst marine dinosaurs". Whales are larger than any land based dino that ever lived. Hell, Blue Whales are the largest living thing ever. And we're living through their probable extinction - especially with what we're currently doing in terms of regulating in the US.
By 2041 we might live in a world without most species of whale. We might lose our living dinosaurs. Considering how many people dream about seeing dinosaurs in real life, it's so sad we are collectively like "yeah, naw, fuck the things we do have". I'm hopeful that we've hit rock bottom, but it feels like a healthy number of people are still pushing us further down.
On the otherhand, they're nearing extinction in the century when humans are finally able to take DNA samples and preserve them. If we don't go extinct ourselves, there's a good chance our...
On the otherhand, they're nearing extinction in the century when humans are finally able to take DNA samples and preserve them. If we don't go extinct ourselves, there's a good chance our descendants can bring them back. Think of them as going into a Pokéball temporarily while we sort out our own issues.
Are you planning to publish the results of this? I'd be interested to see what the general population (or at least, Tildes and your other friends) think is going to happen in the next 16 years.
Are you planning to publish the results of this? I'd be interested to see what the general population (or at least, Tildes and your other friends) think is going to happen in the next 16 years.
That's an interesting question! On the one hand, it's sort of fun to sit on it like a time capsule and do a big reveal when it's due. On the other hand, the times where this survey is most...
That's an interesting question! On the one hand, it's sort of fun to sit on it like a time capsule and do a big reveal when it's due. On the other hand, the times where this survey is most interesting is today and in 16 years, so it's sort of a shame to not show anything for so long. I'll think about it!
(Or, if I misunderstood your question, I'm definitely planning on sharing everything in 16 years)
Are there specific questions you're most interested in seeing preliminary stats on now?
We recently welcomed a new baby and have been discussing whether she'll ever learn to drive. I love bets with long time horizons, so we put together a survey so friends and family could pick a side. We kept thinking of fun questions to ask, so it grew into the survey I've linked above, which we're opening to the public.
It's short, fun, and totally informal. Thanks for looking!
There's a little more context about the project on my blog: https://xavd.id/blog/post/predicting-the-future/
Oh it's you! :D
Well ping me in 16 years and also, congratulations!
A haiku by chocobean
It's me indeed! And will do, already looking forward to it. 😁
Asking for an email at the end got me to thinking if Gmail will still be around in 16 years! I decided to give my bespoke, personal email that I can move around as needed instead.
Fun little project. Thanks for sharing!
I think gmail being gone would be a bold prediction in and of itself. But using a domain you own seems like better and better practice for resiliency anyway.
But yes, thank you and you're welcome!
What a cool (and slightly scary) quiz. Thanks for making it!!
I hope I'm not right about some of them.
I hear that! there are a bunch of question we left off because, while interesting, we thought they'd be too sad. Things like "are there still polar bears" 😔
The Kakapo's are having their best year ever in 2026! If derpy little ground parrots are making it, I'm sure a charismatic apex predator like polar bears will still be here. The Great Barrier Reef, the Amazon forests, likewise, will need more help as well, but it'll still be there in 2041.
Way too many us-centric questions, in my opinion. I mean, anything I would be answering for a sizable subset of those questions might as well be a random choice because I don't have the slightest of a clue (or at least an interest) on almost anything related to those.
Yeah, that's fair. As mentioned in the description, you can skip anything you don't feel like you have the context for. But given we and most of our friends / family live in the US, we were asking the questions that have been top of mind for us.
Either way, thanks for checking it out!
I had fun with it in any case, and given how interconnected the world is (or perhaps the anglosphere) I didn't find the scope of the survey to be excessively narrow to the US.
Thanks for sharing!
I started doing the survey then I came across so many US questions I noped out. The internet isn’t just America but eh.
Yeah, me too, I was really put off by it
I like tildes but like early reddit, it’s extremely US centric. Oh well.
Honestly I think the issue is less that there are too many US-centric questions (in absolute numbers there weren't that many) and more that there were absolutely zero questions specific to any other part of the world. Even with an American creator, for whom I set the bar pretty low when it comes to knowledge of European politics, surely the lowest hanging fruit like "will any more countries leave/join the EU" (or even "will the EU still exist" if we wanna get spicy) would've been doable on a quiz like this. Or even questions about countries that the US geopolitically has interest in, like "will the PRC have invaded and/or taken over Taiwan?" or "Who is in control of Iran?" I get that it's short and just for fun, but if you can include a question about whether Stripe will go public and then even have a follow up about its market cap, you can include even one question related to non-US politics.
commentary, and some of my predictions
I appreciate the comprehensive inclusion of world population going to 0 billions, but if we have fewer than say, 1b we're probably not going to have the Internet anymore.
US states will grow to 52 to include 2 more, Puerto Rico and Guam, with discussions around the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands territories. Canada will not be a State and indeed isn't as much of a trading partner either.
Space tourism prices will vary wildly depending on how far into space and if Bea wants excursions like space walk while there vs "just" luxury dinner and video package.
This is kind of a side tangent, but I had such a depressing thought on my bike ride along the coast today. I saw a bunch of whale spout and though "We effectively live amongst marine dinosaurs". Whales are larger than any land based dino that ever lived. Hell, Blue Whales are the largest living thing ever. And we're living through their probable extinction - especially with what we're currently doing in terms of regulating in the US.
By 2041 we might live in a world without most species of whale. We might lose our living dinosaurs. Considering how many people dream about seeing dinosaurs in real life, it's so sad we are collectively like "yeah, naw, fuck the things we do have". I'm hopeful that we've hit rock bottom, but it feels like a healthy number of people are still pushing us further down.
Anyway, I realize that's quite depressing in an otherwise very fun thread... So here is a video of whales breaching!
On the otherhand, they're nearing extinction in the century when humans are finally able to take DNA samples and preserve them. If we don't go extinct ourselves, there's a good chance our descendants can bring them back. Think of them as going into a Pokéball temporarily while we sort out our own issues.
I love the optimism and I'll keep my fingers crossed for those pokeballs :)
Are you planning to publish the results of this? I'd be interested to see what the general population (or at least, Tildes and your other friends) think is going to happen in the next 16 years.
That's an interesting question! On the one hand, it's sort of fun to sit on it like a time capsule and do a big reveal when it's due. On the other hand, the times where this survey is most interesting is today and in 16 years, so it's sort of a shame to not show anything for so long. I'll think about it!
(Or, if I misunderstood your question, I'm definitely planning on sharing everything in 16 years)
Are there specific questions you're most interested in seeing preliminary stats on now?