16 votes

“I have become convinced that Kremlin has made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter.” (Dec 21, 2021)

Posted by Adys
Tags: russia, ukraine, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, author.dmitri alperovitch
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
@Dmitri Alperovitch:
In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵

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Title
Dmitri Alperovitch on Twitter: "In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵 / Twitter"
Authors
Dmitri Alperovitch
Word count
37 words

6 comments

  2. [3]
    smoontjes
    (edited )
    Link
    He has really hit the nail on the head with his analysis, damn. Except for stopping development of Nord Stream 2, there are indeed no sanctions on fossil fuels (yet) ETA: Case in point -...

    Energy prices are skyrocketing. Europe is wholly dependent on Russia’s gas and even the US is currently importing Russia’s crude oil. There is little chance there will be economic sanctions on fossil fuels as a result

    He has really hit the nail on the head with his analysis, damn. Except for stopping development of Nord Stream 2, there are indeed no sanctions on fossil fuels (yet)

    ETA: Case in point - https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/shell-buys-russian-oil-at-bargain-price-2ZljvO2HQlmPm5d5aAgG

    3 votes
    1. [2]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      No sanctions, but Shell’s purchase is an exception to what most buyers are doing. The bottom of that article shows the bigger picture:

      No sanctions, but Shell’s purchase is an exception to what most buyers are doing. The bottom of that article shows the bigger picture:

      The U.S. and its allies left energy out of the sanctions imposed on Moscow in response to the invasion. However, refiners went further, shunning Russian crude as they struggled to get funding and ships to export Russian oil.

      Self-sanctioning has taken a chunk out of global supplies, pushing prices for international benchmark Brent up to $113.80 a barrel. Traders say it is causing a backup in Russia’s energy supply chain, prompting refiners to cut back production.

      6 votes
  3. [2]
    Adys
    Link
    Insightful twitter thread from someone who was pretty bang on. (Lots of people predicted this but this is a higher quality analysis than most I’ve seen)

    Insightful twitter thread from someone who was pretty bang on. (Lots of people predicted this but this is a higher quality analysis than most I’ve seen)

    1 vote
    1. Cycloneblaze
      Link Parent
      I see you too listen to Risky Business?

      I see you too listen to Risky Business?