Nate Cohn argues that recent polling has shown trends that seem to continue what happened in the 2022 midterms, with Trump overperforming in NY/CA/FL, while underperforming in swing states like...
Nate Cohn argues that recent polling has shown trends that seem to continue what happened in the 2022 midterms, with Trump overperforming in NY/CA/FL, while underperforming in swing states like PA.
As a result, the advantage Trump has in the electoral college as compared to his popular vote seems to be diminishing, as his national vote is proportionally less effective, being used in states where he is nearly guaranteed to lose like CA or NY, or in states where he is almost guaranteed to win like FL.
Cohn estimates that it may have gone down from 3.8 point advantage over the popular vote in 2016 to 0.7.
Nate Cohn argues that recent polling has shown trends that seem to continue what happened in the 2022 midterms, with Trump overperforming in NY/CA/FL, while underperforming in swing states like PA.
As a result, the advantage Trump has in the electoral college as compared to his popular vote seems to be diminishing, as his national vote is proportionally less effective, being used in states where he is nearly guaranteed to lose like CA or NY, or in states where he is almost guaranteed to win like FL.
Cohn estimates that it may have gone down from 3.8 point advantage over the popular vote in 2016 to 0.7.