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What recent special elections can tell us about November's US election: They may throw cold water on the idea that 2020 will be another “blue wave”
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- Title
- What Special Elections Can Tell Us About November
- Authors
- Nathaniel Rakich
- Published
- May 20 2020
- Word count
- 868 words
Huh. The results in Wisconsin do give us some good hope, especially given the state only has 8 seats, meaning a large share of the population went to vote in that election and in that share more people decided to elect Democrats.
Cool formatting. Thanks for this! Personally, I doubt that the GOP victory in California represents a national mood, given that the margin swings come out as a essentially wash between the several special elections, with a slight Dem advantage.
Back of the envelope and not to be taken too seriously, representing D as positive and R as negative...
-1 + 0 + 12 - 2 - 10 + 4 + 0 = +3. So if we naively add up all the swings in the elections listed, the outcome is +3 for Dems. I don't think this tells us much, but it's interesting nonetheless.