10 votes

What recent special elections can tell us about November's US election: They may throw cold water on the idea that 2020 will be another “blue wave”

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  1. [2]
    Kuromantis
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    Huh. The results in Wisconsin do give us some good hope, especially given the state only has 8 seats, meaning a large share of the population went to vote in that election and in that share more...
    YEAR DATE SEAT PARTISAN LEAN VOTE MARGIN MARGIN SWING
    2019 May 21 Pennsylvania 12th R+35 R+36 R+1
    Sept. 10 North Carolina 3rd R+24 R+24 0
    Sept. 10 North Carolina 9th† R+14 R+2 D+12
    2020 April 28 Maryland 7th D+51 D+49 R+2
    May 12 California 25th* EVEN R+10 R+10
    May 12 Wisconsin 7th* R+18 R+14 D+4
    Average R+6 R+6 0

    Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Note that FiveThirtyEight’s current partisan leans do not yet incorporate the results of the 2018 election.

    *Unofficial results as of May 20.

    †The North Carolina 9th election was technically a do-over election but otherwise had all the characteristics of a special election.

    SOURCES: STATE ELECTION OFFICES


    In four of the six elections, the final result was quite close to the district’s partisan lean. And the other two races pointed in opposite directions. Republicans did 10 points better in the California 25th than we’d expect them to in a neutral political environment, while Democrats did 12 points better than their baseline in the North Carolina 9th do-over election last year. And these results can easily be explained by the strength of the candidates. Both Garcia and Dan McCready, the Democratic candidate in the North Carolina 9th, were moderates, veterans and prolific fundraisers.

    Huh. The results in Wisconsin do give us some good hope, especially given the state only has 8 seats, meaning a large share of the population went to vote in that election and in that share more people decided to elect Democrats.

    3 votes
    1. goodbetterbestbested
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Cool formatting. Thanks for this! Personally, I doubt that the GOP victory in California represents a national mood, given that the margin swings come out as a essentially wash between the several...

      Cool formatting. Thanks for this! Personally, I doubt that the GOP victory in California represents a national mood, given that the margin swings come out as a essentially wash between the several special elections, with a slight Dem advantage.

      Back of the envelope and not to be taken too seriously, representing D as positive and R as negative...

      -1 + 0 + 12 - 2 - 10 + 4 + 0 = +3. So if we naively add up all the swings in the elections listed, the outcome is +3 for Dems. I don't think this tells us much, but it's interesting nonetheless.

      3 votes