Picture: Anora

This is more of a fluid race than we have been used to this decade so far. Conclave could win here. PGA is the only guild that uses the voting system the Oscar's does, and Anora won there. However, Conclave won SAG Ensemble and is guaranteed a screenplay win and that's all that Spotlight needed to win in a fractured field.

Director: Sean Baker - Anora

Again, director was split at this year's BAFTA and DGA. With Corbet (Brutalist) winning the former and Baker winning the latter. DGA has determined the race most of the time when the category is split like this.

Original Screenplay: Anora written by Sean Baker

It won WGA, and it's closest competition would be A Real Pain which did not receive a Best Picture nomination. Had The Substance won Original Screenplay in BAFTA this would be more in jeopardy.

Adapted Screenplay: Conclave Screenplay by Peter Straughan. Based on the novel by Robert Harris.

Swept.

Lead Actor: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown

I'm going with the SAG four. SAG and BAFTA have alternated these past few years and the Academy went with all the BAFTA winners last year (which is how Stone beat Gladstone). So I'm sticking with this pattern and saying Chalamet beats Brody. (fun fact: Chalamet would be the youngest winner in this category, Adrian Brody currently holds that title for his performance in The Pianist).

Lead Actress: Demi Moore - The Substance

Again, SAG. I think Moore has the narrative unlike Mikey Madison who is her closest competition.

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Swept.

Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

Swept.

Cinematography: The Brutalist

It won the BAFTA. Maria and Nosferatu are the only other films with wins but they're not Picture nominees and the winner in this category is usually a Picture nominee.

Original Score: The Brutalist

Original Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez

Costume Design: Wicked

Production Design: Wicked

Hair and Make-up: The Substance

VFX: Dune: Part Two

Sound: Dune: Part Two

BAFTA and CAS split here, with CAS going with A Complete Unknown. ACU just doesn't make much sense as a Sound winner to me. La La Land couldn't even win a sound award so I'm sticking with the bombastic sound here.

Film Editing: Conclave

Again, not a clear winner here. Conclave won BAFTA and the editors guild will announce winners after the Oscar ceremony. There used to be a correlation in this category with Sound, but since the merging of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing into one category this correlation has gotten weaker. EEAAO won here without a Sound nomination, and Oppenheimer won here despite losing Sound to Zone of Interest.

International Feature: Emilia Perez

Some people seem to think that I'm Still Here will win here due to the controversies surrounding Emilia Perez. It's clear that those controversies did not affect Saldana's chances so I don't see why it would ruin them here.

Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Another split category. The Golden Globes went with Flow while the BAFTA's went with Wallace and Gromit. When the category is this split it goes to the PGA winner (Toy Story 4 won here having only won PGA).

Documentary Feature: No Other Land

I don't know much about this category, but this documentary has drummed up quite a bit of buzz. So I'll go with this.