We are officially one week away from the Oscar's and all the precursors (being the award shows that happen before the Oscar's) have come and gone. Here's where I think the Oscar's will go on March 10th.

Picture: Oppenheimer

It's a done deal.

Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

After unexpectedly winning the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay it immediately became the front-runner in the category besting previous front-runners The Holdovers and Barbie (which got switched over to Adapted anyway). Having picked up the BAFTA in the same category, it's locked.

Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Also having won the BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay, beating out Poor Things and Oppenheimer (which BAFTA loved) this is also pretty clearly the favorite to win here. Two weak winners in a row for this category imo.

Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

This seemed obvious for a long time, but now that he's swept all the awards it's a done deal..

Lead Actress: Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

This is actually a tight race between her and Emma Stone in Poor Things. They both won the Globe and Stone won the BAFTA while Gladstone won SAG. Gladstone wasn't even nominated at BAFTA (despite the jury being there to nominate minorities) which complicated the race. However, with SAG having gone after BAFTA I think that'll have more influence and give Gladstone more momentum. Also, most of the time when SAG gives Best Ensemble to the eventual Picture winner they tend to go 4/4 in the acting categories.

Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

He swept like Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress: D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Also swept.

Original Score: Oppenheimer

Original Song: What Was I Made For? from Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Makeup & Hairstyling: Maestro

Costume Design: Barbie

Poor Things won BAFTA, however BAFTA as a whole did not like Barbie very much. And there's too much iconography attached to the film in this category that I think the Oscar's will go for it over Poor Things.

Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects: The Creator

After the branch snubbed both Oppenheimer and Poor Things, it muddled the winner in this category. People initially thought Guardians of the Galaxy 3 would be the winner. But there's pretty severe anti-superhero bias in the category. The Creator won at the VFX guild, it's flashy, it looks good, and it's somewhat of a "serious" movie.

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This isn't as clear as a race as I thought it would have been. Globes and BAFTA went with Boy and the Heron in this category while Critic's Choice and PGA went with Spider-Verse. The Oscar's usually goes populist in this category (eg they went with Toy Story 4 when Globes and BAFTA went in a more artsy direction). So I'm sticking with Spider-Man here.

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

This would give Wes Anderson his first Oscar win, if the Academy doesn't blue ball him.

Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

Documentary Short: The ABC's of Book Banning

Nominations are coming out on Tuesday. Here's my final predictions on what gets in:

Picture

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Maestro
7. Anatomy of a Fall
8. Past Lives
9. The Zone of Interest
10. American Fiction

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Maestro
5. May December

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. American Fiction
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actor

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone - Poor Things
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro
5. Margot Robbie - Barbie

Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Sandra Huller - The Zone of Interest
4. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
5. Florence Pugh - Oppenheimer

Film Editing

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barbie
5. The Holdovers

Sound

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Ferrari

Cinematography

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. The Zone of Interest

Costume Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. Napoleon

Production Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. Poor Things
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Golda

Original Score

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Original Song

1. I'm Just Ken from Barbie
2. What Was I Made For? from Barbie
3. Dance the Night from Barbie
4. Road to Freedom from Rustin
5. Quiet Eyes from Past Lives

VFX

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. The Creator
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
5. Poor Things

Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
5. Nimona

Documentary

1. American Symphony
2. 20 Days in Mariupol
3. Four Daughters
4. Beyond Utopia
5. The Eternal Memory

International Film

1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of Snow
3. Fallen Leaves
4. The Taste of Things
5. Perfect Days

Golden Globe noms will be coming out next week. They recently changed a rule that each category now has six nominees instead of five (boo!). These are the only categories listed on Goldderby so that's all I'm gonna be predicting (Original Score and Original Song are the two categories not listed). Here's where I think the nominations will land:

Motion Picture - Drama

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. All of Us Strangers
5. Anatomy of a Fall
6. Past Lives

Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Poor Things
4. American Fiction
5. The Color Purple
6. May December

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Greta Gerwig - Barbie
5. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
6. Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Screenplay

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Poor Things
6. American Fiction

Lead Actor - Drama

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Andrew Scott - All of Us Strangers
5. Adam Driver - Ferrari
6. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Lead Actress - Drama

1. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Cailee Spaeny - Priscilla
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro
5. Annette Bening - Nyad
6. Greta Lee - Past Lives

Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
3. Timothee Chalamet - Wonka
4. Nicolas Cage - Dream Scenario
5. Matt Damon - Air
6. Peter Dinklage - She Came To Me

Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
3. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
4. Natalie Portman - May December
5. Julia Louis Dreyfus - You Hurt My Feelings
6. Jennifer Lawrence - No Hard Feelings

Supporting Actor - Any Motion Picture:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
4. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Charles Melton - May December
6. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Julianne Moore - May December
4. Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
5. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
6. America Ferrera - Barbie

I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think the current Oscar race stands:

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Anatomy of a Fall

Director:

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. May-December

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May-December
4. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Annette Bening - Nyad

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May-December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Cinematography:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. The Zone of Interest

Film Editing:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Holdovers
5. The Killer

Sound:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One

Original Score:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Zone of Interest
4. The Killer
5. Past Lives

Original Song:

1. "Dance the Night" from Barbie
2. "Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
3. "More of Us" from Wish
4. "Gonna be You" from 80 For Brady
5. Original Song from Wonka

Production Design:

1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Wonka

Costume Design:

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wonka
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Hair and Make-up:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Guaridans of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Renfield
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Animated Feature:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. How Do You Live?
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
4. Wish
5. Nimona

For those of you who are new I usually post awards predictions from time to time. Some people seem to like it, at least when it was just a handful of active users.

Anyways these are predictions I currently have for “the guilds” meaning industry awards that are not the Oscar’s. Segmented by different unions. They usually are more populist than the Academy, due to many members being from the TV and commercial world. Whenever there’s an artsy contender that they avoid, the Academy nominates it anyway (Drive My Car, Triangle of Sadness, Phantom Thread being some recent examples that come to mind).

Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA):

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1

Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA):

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Greta Gerwig - Barbie

Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA):

Original:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. May/December
5. Air

Adapted:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Killer

Screen Actor’s Guild Awards (SAG):

Ensemble:

1. The Holdovers
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Color Purple

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Colman Domingo - Rustin
5. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Zendaya - Challengers
5. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. John Magaro - Past Lives
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple

American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE):

Comedic Editing:

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Next Goal Wins
4. Poor Things
5. No Hard Feelings

Dramatic Editing:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. The Killer

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. Past Lives
6. Barbie
7. The Zone of Interest
8. May/December
9. Saltburn
10. The Killer

Director:

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. May/December
4. Saltburn
5. Drive Away Dolls

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Annette Bening - Nyad
5. Zendaya - Challengers

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Magaro - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn