Daily megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - March 2

Russia has been amping up the aggression since last night. Lots of air raids. More bombings, with more of them targeting civilian structures. Here are some articles for today.

• Voice message reveals Russian military unit’s catastrophic losses in Ukraine
• In the smouldering ruins of a children’s clothes shop, signs of Russian desperation emerge
  • A good Twitter thread about misinformation and fake news
• At least 2000 Ukrainian civilians dead in the war so far
• EU bans export of machinery to Belarus in new sanctions over Ukraine invasion

Tweets:

• ⚡️Russian parliament proposes imprisonment for spreading “fake news” about the war. Writing about Russia’s war against Ukraine can lead to up to 15 years in prison.
• Poll: 86% of Ukrainians want Ukraine to be part of the European Union, while 76% believe that Ukraine should be a NATO member
• Shares of Sberbank (RU bank) and Gazprom on the London Stock Exchange are now worth nothing at all.
• Emmanuel Macron is addressing France at 20:00 GMT+1 about Ukraine. (Honestly his tweet is stressing me out. It's got a very "We need to talk when you get home" SMS vibe to it.)

PS: I will use this new thread to remind people that "What about Iraq and Afghanistan" is one of Putin's key justifications for invading Ukraine. I ask everybody, especially the Americans here, to keep this in mind and wait until after the war to ask that perfectly valid question. The world is united in support of Ukraine and splintering that serves exactly one asshole right now, nobody else. I pointed this out here on Tildes earlier, and I had to call out a few more of these instances in the past 24 hours elsewhere. Be patient and please don't make this about your country. Do not signal boost Putin, and make sure to call out anybody who does so.

Matt Levine wrote Monday about the economic sanctions against Russia and the philosophy of money:

I think that 15 years ago it was easier to think that money was an objective fact. Money is a kind of stuff, you might have thought, stuff with some predictable value that you can exchange for goods and services, and you can acquire a quantity of it and then you own that money and can use it however you like to buy things.

[…]

As of Friday Russia had about $630 billion of foreign currency reserves, a large cushion designed to allow it to withstand economic sanctions and prop up the value of the ruble. But “foreign currency reserves” are not an objective fact; they are mostly a series of entries on lists maintained by foreign-currency issuers and intermediaries (central banks, correspondent banks, sovereign bond issuers, brokerages).[1] If those people cross you off the list, or put an asterisk next to your entry freezing your funds, then you can’t use those funds anymore.

[…]

There is a lot to dislike, or at least to be uncomfortable with, in this situation. There are the Bitcoiners’ complaints: Financial transactions are a private matter, letting authorities interfere with them is bad for freedom, dictators (or democracies) can arbitrarily cut off money to people they dislike, etc. But there are also more specific complaints about “weaponizing the dollar”: The U.S.-dollar-based international financial system, and the international financial system broadly, is an extremely valuable engine for global prosperity because people basically trust it to be reliable and neutral and rules-based; they trust that a dollar in a bank is usable and fungible, that the dollar system protects property rights.[2] “Money is a social construct,” sure, in the back of everyone’s mind, but it is a well-constructed construct, one that works. Making the Russian central bank’s money disappear undermines that valuable trust. This is arguably bad for the dollar’s long-run dominance: Russia will develop its own ways around SWIFT, China will push other countries to adopt its digital yuan, everyone will use Bitcoin, etc. But it is also arguably bad for global prosperity: Trustworthy rules-based trade works better and produces more value than arbitrary uncertain trade.

But what I want to suggest is that this weekend’s actions are evidence that the basic structure is good. What I want to suggest is that society is good, that it is good for people (and countries) to exist in a web of relationships in which their counterparties can judge their actions and punish bad actions. If money is socially constructed and property is contingent then money is a continuing, dynamic, ever-at-risk reward for prosocial behavior.

[…]

The judgment of society can, in all sorts of ways, be bad. Pervasive social credit systems seem dystopian, and you would not really want the U.S. government making day-to-day decisions about who deserves to keep their bank accounts. But another idea is that money can insulate you from the obligations of society, and that is also bad. You get a claim on goods and services by being part of society, and having a big number next to your name on a list does not relieve you of your obligations. If you do something so outrageous that society as a whole decides you are a pariah, then money is a way for society to express that.

Interview with Grigory Yudin, the Russian sociologist beaten unconscious last week at an anti-war rally.

But already there’s a factor that introduces dissonance into the picture — it’s obvious that the blitzkrieg failed. It’s becoming harder and harder to pretend that all of this is happening somewhere far away and will soon be over — on the contrary, it’s already an obviously significant military conflict. Lots of people on the Russian side have already been killed or wounded, with many more to come. Russians have many relatives in Ukraine, and, according to numerous reports, the Russian air force has begun using cluster bombs, which means a lot of civilian deaths.

All of that is going to disturb the picture, and people will be forced to take a clear position. It will become impossible to bury yourself in everyday tasks. Plus, the reality we’re all used to is going to be destroyed by the consequences of economic collapse. Which is why I think that a rise in critical attitudes across different segments of society is likely.

But we’re not the only ones who have figured this out — and we should expect actions in the near future that seek to nip any kind of generalized protest in the bud.

...

If the Russian leadership acknowledges all of these events, that is, if they admit that this is a war and not some warm and fuzzy mission to liberate [Ukraine], then martial law will go into effect — with consequences to match: general mobilization, wartime economy, liquidation of property. It’s possible that the destruction of the economy will be blamed on “internal Nazi agents,” we may see the return of the death penalty. Naturally, borders will be closed — after all, there’s a war on, we’re in a state of exception.

Moscow claims its troops have taken Kherson as blast heard near Kyiv station

Kherson is the first Ukrainian city to fall to the Russian invaders.

Russia cancelled Black Sea passage bid of four warships: Turkey

Russia has cancelled a bid to send four of its warships through Turkish waters into the Black Sea at Turkey’s request, according to the Turkish government.

A NATO member and neighbour of Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea, Turkey has good ties with both and adopted a cautious rhetoric on the crisis following the Russian forces’ invasion last week.

On Monday, Ankara said its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits have been closed under a 1936 pact since the early days of the violence in Ukraine.

Under the Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the straits that connect the Mediterranean and Black Sea and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened. The pact exempts vessels returning to their bases.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told national broadcaster Haberturk late on Tuesday that Turkey had asked Russia not to send its ships through before it labelled Moscow’s invasion a “war” on Sunday, legally allowing it to curb passages under the convention.

“Russia has said four of its ships would cross the straits on February 27-28, three of which are not registered to bases in the Black Sea,” Cavusoglu said.

“We told Russia not to send these ships and Russia said the vessels would not cross the straits,” he also said, adding that Turkey informed the states that are party to the pact on the development.

“Nobody should be offended by this, because the Montreux Convention is valid today, yesterday and tomorrow, so we will implement it,” the foreign minister said.

Cavusoglu repeated on Tuesday that Turkey would not join its Western allies in imposing economic sanctions on Russia.

While forging close cooperation with Russia, Turkey has also sold drones to Kyiv and signed a deal to co-produce more, angering Moscow. It also opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya, as well as its 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Wednesday the country was set to receive another shipment of Turkish drones, a move likely to anger Russia.

Convoy still stalled outside Kyiv, but casualties mount in Ukraine as Russia advances (Washington Post)

Ukrainian and U.S. officials continue to describe Russian forces as being bogged down throughout the country. A Russian convoy northwest of Kyiv that stretches for dozens of miles has struggled for days to advance toward the capital, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday. The convoy, which appears to be a mix of supply vehicles and combat power, would be instrumental in any Russian strategy to take over Kyiv; officials say occasional attacks by the Ukrainian military, low morale among Russian troops and botched planning have slowed it down.

“They continue to be deviled by logistical and sustainment issues,” the senior U.S. defense official said about the Russians, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Biden administration. Although the Pentagon has said it expects the Russian military to absorb lessons learned and implement changes that will enable it to fight more effectively, there are few battlefield indications that those adjustments have occurred.

[...]

The United States believes that Russian forces will shift to more artillery fire as they draw nearer to population centers and begin siege tactics in earnest.

[...]

On Wednesday, Ukraine announced that it had received a shipment of Turkish drones, which is what it has used in recent days to damage advancing Russian armored columns. Turkey, which is trying to maintain stable relations with both Russia and Ukraine, did not comment on the shipment.

[...]

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Sky news the Ukrainians have also been “carrying out a very clever plan. We’ve seen footage, we can’t verify, but we’ve seen footage of Ukrainians using UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] to attack petrol train convoys, to go after logistical lines — we’ve seen lines blown up — all the things you and I think of when it comes to resistance.”

The impact, he said, has been significant. “When any army on the move takes longer to do things, your logistical supply chain is stretched. If you’re given enough rations for two days and it takes you six, you’ve suddenly got a problem. And I think what we’ve seen is a lot of those issues are coming to bear,” Wallace told Sky News.

Gazprom, Lukoil and Sberbank are now penny stocks as Russian companies collapse in London

Russian natural-gas giant Gazprom, oil-producer Lukoil and leading bank Sberbank are all penny stocks based on their trading on the London Stock Exchange, as the local market was shut for a third day.

Sberbank SBER, -78.43%, which had assets of over $500 billion at the end of 2021, was trading for 3 cents a share in afternoon action. The European Commission on Wednesday approved the resolution plan for its Croatian and Slovenian arms that will be sold. Its Austrian and Czech operations will be wound down, with depositors compensated up to €100,000.

Lukoil LKOD, -93.23%, Gazprom OGZD, -23.50%, and Rosneft Oil ROSN, -77.71% continued to collapse as the dollar-denominated secondary listings in London remained the one venue where Russia’s top companies could be valued.

Extremists harass minority refugees arriving in Poland from Ukraine, witnesses report

More than 836,000 people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries since Russian forces invaded the eastern European country on Feb. 24, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

At least 453,000 of those refugees have escaped to Poland as of March 2, UNHCR said.

Near the Przemysl train station on Tuesday, where thousands of refugees are passing through, anyone who looked to be African or Arab were being targeted by the extremists in the attack, witnesses reported.

[...]

Online videos seen by ABC News show police in riot gear diffusing the incident, which Würzer said went on for about 20 minutes before police arrived.

Russia’s Jewish oligarchs and their donations come under threat of Western sanctions amid Ukraine war