Daily megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - March 3

Good afternoon Tildes. It is day 8.

I am too tired for detailed updates about the situation in the country. The main noteworthy thing is that Kherson has fallen to Russian control since last night. I have prepared some interesting articles.

But first: Something you can do to help

You have all seen the donation drives and protest calls I'm sure. I don't need to go on about those.

Something concrete you can do to help, today and in the coming weeks, is to be on the lookout for Russian propaganda.
Anything that diverts attention away from Ukraine. Anything that redirects blame. That is "just asking questions".
Legitimate or not, such discourse benefits Putin greatly, as the greatest threat to Russia right now is the world's unity over the issue and thus its support for Ukraine.

I also ask you to make sure your Russian friends and acquaintances are okay. Most of them want nothing to do with this war. Some of them do, and it's highly unlikely to be their fault beyond an unhealthy propaganda diet. Do not try to change their mind; if you want to send them something, send them this video of a read of a conversation between a dead young Russian soldier and his mother. Send them Zelenskyy's speech to Russia from a week ago. This letter, a POV from Russian academia. But please be kind.

This war is against Putin. Not Russia.

News:

• Refugee count tops 1 million; Russians besiege Ukraine ports (AP)
• ICC prosecutor launches Ukraine war crimes investigation (AP)
• Neutral Finland, Sweden warm to idea of NATO membership (AP)
• Moscow police detain children for laying flowers at Ukrainian embassy
• The US has delayed a planned ICBM test to avoid escalations (Reuters)
• 80% of finns see Russia as a threat (up from 15% last year) (Article in Finnish)

Noteworthy:

• How Western governments are getting military gear into Ukraine (The Economist)
• Avast has released a free decryptor for a Russian ransomware spreading in Ukraine
• A $1 million USD bounty has been put on Putin's arrest by a Russian entrepreneur (Reminder: Russia is heading towards a coup)
• Factorio developers support Ukraine

Belgium:

• 70+ belgian citizens signed up to Ukraine's foreign legion. 12 leaving today.
• Belgian PM: 'Russian people are not the adversary'

Personal update - Although the sister is still stuck in Kyiv (which is now surrounded…), I have good news: One of my SO's friends who was stuck in Kherson just made it out of the country. We're finding a bed for her and she's hosting her next week.

Effective immediately, International Longshore and Warehouse Union dockworkers will not load or unload any Russian cargo coming into or going out of all 29 U.S. West Coast ports.

Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/europe/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-fire-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

Zaporizhzhia is Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant

As part of the knock-on effects, Georgia, Moldova Formally Apply For EU Membership Amid Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

According to this Twitter thread, maybe Russia couldn't even pay for things with gold?

There is just absolutely no way Russia could sell more than 5-10% of its gold reserves within like a month. If Russia was starting to sell, prices would plummet, as there is simply very little market depth (important!) in the gold market. Nobody wants to catch a falling knife and a central bank with major gold reserves selling would mean much more supply then there is demand, so brokers would stop quoting gold. Gold only has value, if “gold whales” (=central banks) aren’t selling it.

But can you still repo the gold? Well, that depends if you find someone who loans you money against your collateral, that is someone who is unaffected by sanctions and loans you against collateral you couldn’t sell in a liquid market and which sits in a vault in Moscow.

[...]

Gold won’t help you here. Some argue gold has something like a placebo effect. “Yes, you can’t sell it, but since people aren’t rational they actually trust a [central bank] if it has gold, and since trust is of upmost importance to a CB, gold has a role on a CB balance sheet.”

(Via Matt Levine.)

Russian firms rush to open Chinese bank accounts

"Over the past few days, 200-300 companies have approached us, wanting to open new accounts," the person, who works at the Moscow branch of a Chinese state bank and has direct knowledge of its operations, told Reuters.

[…]

China has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanctions, calling them ineffective and insisting it will maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with Russia.

[…]

"Companies will be switching to yuan-rouble business but in any case things will become two, three or four times more expensive for Russians because the exchange rate between the yuan and rouble is also changing," said Konstantin Popov, a Russian entrepreneur in Shanghai.

Russian oil isn't sanctioned, but nobody wants to touch it anyway

An estimated 4.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil is "missing from the market because Western buyers are refusing to buy it," JPMorgan head of global commodities Natasha Kaneva told Alison Kosik on CNN Business Markets Now Wednesday.

[...]

Oil has spiked more than 20% since just before Russia invaded Ukraine. US crude surged as high as $116.57 a barrel Thursday morning — the highest level since September 2008 — before backing off. Brent, the world benchmark, nearly hit $120 a barrel before heading lower.

[...]

One of the biggest problems is that refiners are refusing to buy Russian oil. Lipow said refiners in the United States, Finland, Sweden and elsewhere are shying away from Russian barrels.

The same situation is playing out with energy trading companies. For example, Lipow said one such company offered a cargo of Russian crude oil for sale — at a huge discount of $18.60 below Brent, instead of the slight discount typically offered before the invasion. There have been no buyers.

At the same time, many banks are declining to provide the financing typically involved in buying oil. Lipow said banks including Credit Suisse, Societe Generale, ING, Rabobank and Bank of China are refusing to extend credit to anyone wanting to finance the purchase of Russian oil.

Some tankers are even refusing to load anything at all at Russian ports or carry Russian oil. The United Kingdom, Canada and other countries have banned Russian tankers.

Through a mountain pass, Poles frantically rebuild a rail link to Ukraine to help refugees

Over the past three days, Polish volunteers working along with the national railways department have restored them as the country frantically seeks new humanitarian corridors to facilitate the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are now waiting in days-long lines at Poland’s borders.

[…]

The refurbished tracks run through the Carpathians, an arc of wooded hills dotted with ski resorts that runs from Poland through Ukraine to Romania. Many fleeing Ukrainians have chosen to travel through the mountains to the border, seeing it as a safer option than going through the cities and towns along main roads that might come under attack.

• Russian MoD rolled out their education plan today.

the federal government distributed teaching guidelines to schools across the country explaining why Russia’s “operation” in eastern Ukraine “is not a war.” The training materials claim that "Russia’s armed forces are not conducting air or artillery strikes at Ukraine’s cities, and there is no threat to the civilian population."

• European intelligence official claiming Russian intelligence has drafted plans for public executions in Ukraine after cities are captured.

Russia axed joint experiments on the International Space Station in response to crippling sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine

Related: This other article from last Friday goes into a bit more detail about broader context of international relations on the ISS. Three Russian cosmonauts are scheduled to launch on 15 March (Soyuz MS-21) and I'm very curious how this unfolding situation will affect those plans. If all goes as scheduled, there will be five Russians, four Americans, and one German aboard through the end of the month, with a Russian in command.

🌻 Russian Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky killed by Ukrainians in ‘major demotivator’ for invading army 🌻

🌻 Pro-Putin Chechen general who led 'gay purge' killed in Ukraine 🌻

(Feb 28) Company behind Euro Truck Simulator 2 (game) takes action to support Ukraine, including direct financial donation, and creating Ukraine-related DLC, income from which will be donated to help Ukraine

Negotiators agree to temporary cease-fire in some areas for civilian evacuation

Ukraine and Russia say they have agreed to temporary local cease-fires to create “humanitarian corridors” so civilians can be evacuated and food and medicine can be delivered.

But the cease-fires would not apply everywhere, said Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak — and logistical details will still need to be agreed upon “in the nearest time.”

What people are donating to Ukraine and its refugees: Crypto, ammo, pet food and cash

Apart from these donations, international agencies and individual governments have already rolled out aid plans. The World Health Organization has $3.5 million in emergency funding; the U.S. government is hoping to deploy $6.4 billion in emergency aid to the region; and the European Commission signed off on a $100 million aid package.

How the Weak Can Win – A Primer on Protracted War