Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - March 16-17

We are entering the fourth week of the war.

This will just be a quick link dump as I’m going through some personal things which are eating all of my time. I’ll edit in if there’s anything else important I see popping up.

Prime ministers of Poland, Czechia and Slovakia meeting in Kyiv: https://www.gov.pl/web/primeminister/prime-ministers-visit-to-kyiv

Russian troops opened fire on people standing in line for bread:
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504058145701781505

Further signaling of the Z symbol via latinisation of the Russian з letter: https://mobile.twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1503941344519147521

Lots of discussion on Ovsyannikova: https://mobile.twitter.com/SophiaFreuden/status/1503540543967608832

UK intel on Russian troops and movements: https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/1503871848341196802

Italian kids welcoming Ukrainian refugees in school: https://mobile.twitter.com/benphillips76/status/1503311358699442178

Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague Karim Khan arrived in Ukraine:
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504093699642429445

Article: NATO discusses new security reality for Europe. NATO officials meeting in Brussels (including Biden): https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/210915/nato-discusses-new-security-reality-in-europe

Statement from Navalny: https://mobile.twitter.com/navalny/status/1503800859863531529 - full article: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/16/this-will-lead-to-our-country-s-collapse

Interesting webgame for our times

Putin lashes out at the Russian 'fifth column’, calling them "scum and traitors."

I am convinced such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to respond to any challenges.

It's a naked call for violence against anti-war and anti-Putin activists in Russia. The video is here.

Exclusive: Secret CIA training program in Ukraine helped Kyiv prepare for Russian invasion

At least some of the fierce resistance by Ukrainian forces has its roots in a now shuttered covert CIA training program run from Ukraine’s eastern frontlines, former intelligence officials tell Yahoo News. The initiative was described to Yahoo News by over half a dozen former officials, all of whom requested anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence matters.

As part of the Ukraine-based training program, CIA paramilitaries taught their Ukrainian counterparts sniper techniques; how to operate U.S.-supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles and other equipment; how to evade digital tracking the Russians used to pinpoint the location of Ukrainian troops, which had left them vulnerable to attacks by artillery; how to use covert communications tools; and how to remain undetected in the war zone while also drawing out Russian and insurgent forces from their positions, among other skills, according to former officials.

Zelensky addresses the U.S. congress

A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs

A rapid Russian advance into the strategic southern town of 35,000 people, a gateway to a Ukrainian nuclear power station and pathway to attack Odessa from the back, would have showcased the Russian military’s abilities and severed Ukraine’s key communications lines.

Instead, the two-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians. Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.

Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 vehicles—tanks, armored personnel carriers, multiple-rocket launchers, trucks—as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter’s remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armor were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday.

Russian forces retreated more than 40 miles to the southeast, where other Ukrainian units have continued pounding them. Some dispersed in nearby forests, where local officials said 10 soldiers have been captured.

Ukrainian officers estimated that some 100 Russian troops died in Voznesensk, including those whose bodies were taken by retreating Russian troops or burned inside carbonized vehicles. As of Tuesday, 11 dead Russian soldiers were in the railway car turned morgue, with search parties looking for other bodies in nearby forests. Villagers buried some others.

“Sometimes, I wish I could put these bodies on a plane and drop them all onto Moscow, so they realize what is happening here,” said Mr. Sokurenko, the funeral director, as he put Tuesday’s fifth Russian cadaver on blue-plastic sheeting inside his van marked “Cargo 200”—Soviet military slang for killed in action. A Ukrainian military explosives specialist accompanied him, because some bodies had been booby trapped.

It's a long read with lots more details, and photos (none very graphic), but the above serves as a decent summary.

Statement by Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson on Synchronisation of the Continental European Electricity Grid with Ukraine and Moldova

Today, the electricity grids of Ukraine and Moldova have been successfully synchronised with the Continental European Grid. This will help Ukraine to keep their electricity system stable, homes warm and lights on during these dark times. It is also a historic milestone for the EU-Ukraine relationship – in this area, Ukraine is now part of Europe.

This project has shown extraordinary cooperation and determination from everyone involved. I want to thank the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO E) for doing a year's work in two weeks to make this happen. I want to thank the French Presidency of the Council and Member States for their support to this project that is not without risks. And I want to thank our Ukrainian partners – Minister Galushchenko and Ukrenergo in particular – for their heroic efforts in keeping the Ukrainian energy systems working in the middle of a terrible war.

The EU will continue to support Ukraine in the energy sector, by ensuring the reverse flows of gas to the country and the delivery of energy supplies that are badly needed. We are also looking forward to the time when we can continue our excellent cooperation on the green transition and market reforms.

Forgive me if this is old news, but I find it disturbing:

Apparantly Russian family members of some Ukrainians don't believe there is a war. (Forgive the source, People, the NYT article was paywalled, but the facts seem to be the same).

I don't know why I find this especially disturbing or surprising, as we see much the same circumstance in the US over so many issues these days. I guess that, one, I thought that Russians were more savvy about propaganda than the US (and maybe they are, neither article gives any indication about how widespread this is), and two, given this a 20th century ground war with tanks and columns and what not it would be so much harder to deny the truth of it.

From @christogrozev (of Bellingcat)

Three independent sources report that the deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia (a unit of RU's interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin's security service.

The reason for the detention is unclear: per one source he was detained by FSB's military counter-intelligence department over "leaks of military info that led to loss of life", while two others say it was "wasteful squandering of fuel", ahem.

While it's hard to guess what exactly the purge/reshuffling at the top of the siloviks will result in, one thing is clear: it's doubtless that Putin recognizes the deep s**t this operation is in. I.e. it's so bad that he changes horses in midstream - a big no-no during war.

Russia didn’t default on its debt. Here is Matt Levine’s commentary:

At some point yesterday some compliance person at JPMorgan Chase & Co. got a question from an operations person. “Hey,” said the operations person. “You know the account that we hold for the Russian government? The one that is subject to harsh sanctions in the U.S. and much of the rest of the world? They just asked us to make a $117 million payment out of that account. What should we do? By the way this is an interest payment on Russia’s dollar-denominated sovereign debt, and if we hold up the money Russia will have defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918. Let me know!”

And the compliance person sat down to read the text of the sanctions and conferred with some in-house lawyers hahahaha no I’m kidding obviously a very senior person at JPMorgan called a very senior person at the U.S. Treasury and said “can we pay this?” and Treasury said “yes” and so JPMorgan did. (Also probably this discussion happened well before yesterday’s payment request, which has been scheduled for some time.) The big banks are in many ways quasi-regulatory bodies, extensions of the U.S. government, particularly when it comes to sanctions. JPMorgan did not sit down and make an independent business decision, or a legal decision, about whether to pass along Russia’s interest payment. Treasury gets to decide that sort of thing.

The point is that Treasury said yes.

[…]

It would actually be a bit strange if U.S. sanctions did prevent Russia from making payments in dollars to foreign bondholders? […] The goal is to prevent Russia from using its dollars to buy stuff, in order to put economic pressure on Russia. If Russia makes interest payments, on the other hand:

• It will have fewer dollars, and
• It won’t get any new stuff.

This is just a transfer of cash from Russia to (American, European, etc.) bondholders. Seems like something the U.S. would want to encourage.

[…]

On the other hand I am not entirely sure why Russia made the payment; Russia has imposed capital controls to preserve dollars, and earlier this month Vladimir Putin signed a decree saying that “Russia and Russian companies will be allowed to pay foreign creditors in rubles on securities including those denominated in other currencies.” Given its limited stock of dollars and its antagonism to Western investors, and the fact that it is shut out of capital markets anyway, it is not at all clear why it would want to pay those dollars to those investors. But apparently it does, and the U.S. will let it.

Proposed neutrality plan apparently nearing agreement.

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

Summary:

– Russia ceases fire and withdraws
– Ukrainian "neutrality" without Nato
– Kyiv keeps its army but can't host foreign bases
– Russian gets legal status in Ukraine

Deepfakes enter the information war:
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zelenskyy-experts-war-manipulation-ukraine-russia

New $800M aid package for Ukraine details

The new $800 million assistance package includes:

• 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
• 2,000 Javelin, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• 100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• 100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns, and 400 shotguns;
• Over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds;
• 25,000 sets of body armor; and
• 25,000 helmets.

In addition to the weapons listed above, previous United States assistance committed to Ukraine includes:

• Over 600 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
• Approximately 2,600 Javelin anti-armor systems;
• Five Mi-17 helicopters;
• Three patrol boats;
• Four counter-artillery and counter-unmanned aerial system tracking radars;
• Four counter-mortar radar systems;
• 200 grenade launchers and ammunition;
• 200 shotguns and 200 machine guns;
• Nearly 40 million rounds of small arms ammunition and over 1 million grenade, mortar, and artillery rounds;
• 70 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs) and other vehicles;
• Secure communications, electronic warfare detection systems, body armor, helmets, and other tactical gear;
• Military medical equipment to support treatment and combat evacuation;
• Explosive ordnance disposal and demining equipment; and
• Satellite imagery and analysis capability.

In addition to the U.S.-produced short-range air defense systems the Ukrainians have been using to great effect, the United States has also identified and is helping the Ukrainians acquire additional, longer-range systems on which Ukraine’s forces are already trained, as well as additional munitions for those systems.

A good article from five days ago by a Russian journalist in the Mykolaiv area. Touches on a lot of things, but includes a bunch of testimonials from Ukrainian civilians and their struggle to live. Warning: while there are no graphic images, some of the textual depictions are quite graphic.

A Private Company Has Evacuated 6,500 People From Ukraine

Global Guardian, a private security firm, has evacuated more than 6,500 people from Ukraine over the past month, according to Dale Buckner, a former Green Beret who owns the firm. Buckner said Global Guardian completed 12 missions on Sunday and another nine on Monday. He said evacuations may be hitting their peak as the Russian invasion of Ukraine extends to its third week.

“You could literally sense the corporate headquarters went from thinking, ‘We won’t have to address our local national employee base’…to, ‘Oh God, this is real and the Russians are coming’,” he said. “People that thought they were going to stay in places like Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, and Odessa are now realizing they don’t have a choice. They need to get out of the way because the reality has hit that they’re going to get cut off.”

“There are lots of people left who never thought they would have to leave,” he said. “Now we’re just focusing on local national employees of Western corporations that, frankly, I don't think were prepared to move, and others who decided, ‘Nope, I’m not leaving,’ have now realized that was a bad decision.”

The first step in an evacuation is analyzing whether Global Guardian teams stationed around Eastern Europe, including in Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, can reach the evacuees, Buckner said. If not, he said, they may ask people to get themselves to a location where they can be picked up. After some communication about logistics, including how many seats are needed, how much luggage each person can bring, and whether any pets are traveling, evacuees are sent a meeting time and place.

Global Guardian employees will drive as far as they can until they hit a curfew and stop to sleep for a couple hours. Then the drive continues to the border with Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, or Romania. Evacuees walk across the border to be processed, and other Global Guardian employees pick them up on the other side of the border to bring them to a major city, where they can find a hotel and figure out next steps.

Buckner said the company is also evacuating individual people and families who find the firm online and need help getting out.

The cost is determined by both the size of the vehicle and the length of the trip, Buckner said. For example, getting out of Kyiv takes between one and two days, depending on which border crossing you go to. Doing that trip with a 50-person van costs about $18,000, Buckner said.

Any bus or van that isn’t hired is tasked to drive around and find people who have made it to western Ukraine by themselves, and give them a free ride to the border crossing of their choice, Buckner said.

Sixteen Days in Ukraine: The first generation born after Ukraine won independence documents the beginning of the Russian invasion. (New York Magazine)

This is a long series of anecdotes telling the stories of many young Ukrainians in the first days of the war. It's not graphic (at least so far - I haven't finished), but the cumulative impact of it is quite powerful.

"Putin Needs an Off-Ramp." The Atlantic.

Across the West there is a sense that Vladimir Putin not only must be stopped from colonizing Ukraine but should be punished for his barbarism as well. It is a question of natural justice. But Western leaders also face a second imperative. The frightening reality is that we are closer to nuclear war than at any time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. And in some ways, the risk of the current crisis spiraling out of control is even greater than that faced by John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. Unlike in 1962, a hot war is already raging over territory that one side considers important to its national interest, and the other knows is necessary to its national survival. The war, in other words, has become a zero-sum conflict, even though on no reasonable basis can Putin’s belief in Ukraine as a threat to Russia’s security be seen as valid.

[...]

The question for Western leaders is how to ensure Putin is defeated while nevertheless providing him with a route out of the crisis and avoiding any missteps that could lead to a wider conflagration [e.g., nuclear war]. The path along the cliff edge is precarious.