Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - March 18-20

Arnold Schwarzenegger made a very respectful, compassionate and powerfully worded message to the Russian people. Hopefully everyone in position to communicate with Russians will help them see it. This video is also very important for those outside of Russia to watch because it is a strong reminder that nobody wins when we let politics and ideologies separate us by fear.
https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

Russian cosmonauts board ISS wearing colours of Ukraine flag

Trio appeared to get changed shortly before arrival at space station and one said every crew could choose their own suit

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19 (Institute for the Study of War)

They are calling a culminating point, which is a bit of military jargon meaning that they don't think the Russians will succeed in advancing significantly further. (Other than they do think they will take Mariupol eventually.)

Stalemate will likely be very violent and bloody, especially if it protracts. Stalemate is not armistice or ceasefire. It is a condition in war in which each side conducts offensive operations that do not fundamentally alter the situation. Those operations can be very damaging and cause enormous casualties. The World War I battles of the Somme, Verdun, and Passchendaele were all fought in conditions of stalemate and did not break the stalemate. If the war in Ukraine settles into a stalemate condition Russian forces will continue to bomb and bombard Ukrainian cities, devastating them and killing civilians, even as Ukrainian forces impose losses on Russian attackers and conduct counter-attacks of their own. The Russians could hope to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting under such circumstances by demonstrating Kyiv’s inability to expel Russian forces or stop their attacks even if the Russians are demonstrably unable to take Ukraine’s cities. Ukraine’s defeat of the initial Russian campaign may therefore set conditions for a devastating protraction of the conflict and a dangerous new period testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West. Continued and expanded Western support to Ukraine will be vital to seeing Ukraine through that new period.

Very cool interactive map of some of the open source intelligence so far.

Russian government accounts are using a Twitter loophole to spread disinformation

Twitter has recognised the disinformation possibilities of state-affiliated media, putting warning labels on their content and not recommending or amplifying them.

However, these rules do not apply to government-controlled accounts not labelled as media, such as foreign embassies.

As a result, these accounts are flooding the platform with propaganda. This is a critical gap in Twitter’s moderation practices, and one that has received little attention.

Article also includes detailed analysis, and recommendations for twitter and other social media companies, as well as their users.

Elon Musk’s Starlink is keeping Ukrainians online when traditional Internet fails (Washington Post)

Ukraine has already received thousands of antennas from Musk’s companies and European allies, which has proved “very effective,” Fedorov [Ukraine's minister of digital transformation] said in an interview with The Washington Post Friday.

“The quality of the link is excellent,” Fedorov said through a translator, using a Starlink connection from an undisclosed location. “We are using thousands, in the area of thousands, of terminals with new shipments arriving every other day.”

[...]

The Starlink technology is being used by civilians in areas under attack that have lost Internet service, and by government officials. Starlink terminals have also been provided to help the country’s tech companies stay online when the war has forced them to relocate. The Times of London reports that a Ukrainian unit is using Starlink to connect its drones attacking Russian forces.

[...]

Still, experts said that even a big Starlink network probably wouldn’t be enough power to keep an entire country online and operating at full-speed. But the terminals can serve as a reliable backup as Internet services falter. Fedorov said he and his staff are having discussions with other European leaders and companies about additional satellite and cellular technologies that could help keep Ukrainians online in the event of greater Internet outages.

[...]

“Every day there are outages, but generally service comes back,” said Doug Madory, director of Internet analysis for Kentik, which monitors global data flows.

[...]

Experts have warned that the devices could give away Ukrainians’ locations to Russian attackers, but that hasn’t been an issue so far, Fedorov said. The devices have usually been used in “densely populated areas where there would be a lot of civilians anyway.”

On Twitter, a military truck guy explains why he thinks all the Russian trucks will have broken down in 6-8 weeks.

Pentagon briefing for Day 23 seems to be "stalemate continues." Here's the retweet. I don't know if the original is posted anywhere.

Twitter thread w/ assessment of the current status of the war from Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Why McDonald's, Burger King, and Papa John's can't just close all their stores in Russia

Rather than owning and operating their own stores in Russia, many fast-food chains franchise out their brand to other third-party operators.

This means that they enter into a long-term agreement that permits a third party to use their brand. While they will give franchisees guidance and support to ensure the quality meets their own criteria, once they enter into this agreement, they won't have full control over these locations.

McDonald's was the first major US fast-food chain to pull out of Russia on March 8, and other big chains quickly followed suit. However, some of the 100 franchise-operated Russian locations are still open, McDonald's confirmed to Ria Novosti.

Papa John's has faced a similar problem of a franchisee that doesn't want to close. Christopher Wynne, an American from Colorado, owns a company that operates 190 Papa John's locations in Russia, The New York Times reported.

[...]

The president of Burger King's parent company Restaurant Brands International was similarly upfront about the limitations of a franchise agreement in a letter to employees this week.

"Would we like to suspend all Burger King operations immediately in Russia? Yes. Are we able to enforce a suspension of operations today? No," he said, wrote, explaining that a "complicated legal process" prevents it from forcing franchisees to halt business.

What are Switchblade drones, the kamikaze ‘killer’ drones Biden is sending to Ukraine? (Washington Post)

They are single-use weapons — small, unmanned aircraft that are launched from a tube, and that experts say are capable of inflicting significant damage. The drones have blade-like wings that emerge when the device is launched.

I'm wondering about this part:

Their small size and weight make them stand out, Bode said, as does their ability to launch a strike on a target autonomously. While humans are often involved in confirming a strike remotely, she said their operating systems are “technologically capable of doing that on its own, and I think that is the big difference.”

Does this mean they sometimes choose and attack targets without human confirmation? I suppose with everything else going on in this war, few people will worry about this. Hopefully Ukrainian soldiers will use them responsibly. But it seems like an ominous step.

Some background from last August:

Loitering munitions preview the autonomous future of war
(Brookings Institute)

Historically, loitering munitions were used to target things like radars but are increasingly being used to attack humans. And as they make this transition in targeting capability, loitering munitions represent a bridge between today’s precision-guided weapons that rely on greater levels of human control and our future of autonomous weapons with increasingly little human intervention.

[...]

One way to understand loitering munitions is as a kind of airborne mine. Like landmines and naval mines, these anti-radar loitering munitions are an explosive placed into an environment and responsive to a set of characteristics it can detect with onboard sensors. Unlike terrestrial or oceanic mines, which can remain in place for long durations of time, a loitering munition is limited by its flight time, though some loitering munitions can land inert and then be refueled for future flights.

[...]

For countries that cannot afford stealth aircraft, the ability to take out anti-air missile batteries with expendable radar-seeking drones is powerful and likely more affordable. By using loitering munitions to first remove anti-air defenses, Azerbaijan was able to then attack other heavy equipment, like tanks, with relative impunity, showcasing how a modest technological advantage can turn into a major strategic benefit.

[...]

In March of last year, a drone—or what may have been a loitering munition—was used in this way against a human target for what might have been the first time. That month, a convoy of the Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar was attacked by drones that may have included a Kargu-2 autonomous quadcopter and/or loitering munitions, causing significant casualties. Whether or not a robot made the call to actually kill people is hard to definitively say, but the report confirmed the worst fears of human-rights campaigners. “The technology that enables weapons systems to operate without meaningful human control and to target people is here now and is being used without regulation,” the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots observed.

[...]

While loitering munitions can persist in the sky only as long as their limited flight time, the matter of target discrimination is crucial, especially as these machines are designed for targets other than missile batteries and radar. Autonomy in targeting systems, especially in targeting-and-firing systems, comes with significant risk. In much the same way that a pressure-sensitive landmine cannot distinguish between an armed soldier and a farmer, an algorithm that converts sensor data into attack triggers is at risk of harming the wrong target.

Getting back to the Switchblade, here's the Wikipedia article:

75 Switchblades were supplied to U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan in late 2012. Several successful employments had occurred by January 2013. Although the military would not confirm details about its deployment, effectiveness, distribution, or tactical employment, commanders reported that it was "very effective". Shortly after, a joint urgent needs statement was requested by the Army theater commanders for more systems. The number requested was not specified, but was "dramatically more" than the 75 systems initially supplied and exceeded budget limitations. The Switchblade gained notoriety among soldiers using it and insurgents targeted by it. The Army classifies it as a direct fire munition rather than a drone. Soldiers embraced it as a valuable tool, especially to reduce collateral damage. Unlike most other weapons, the Switchblade can wave off or abort a mission if the situation changes after launch, allowing it to engage a secondary target or destroy itself without inflicting casualties or property damage; wave off was used over a dozen times to prevent civilian casualties that could have been caused had a person not been in the decision loop.

Conflict wounds Russian and Ukrainian currencies
(Kyiv Post)

The Russian ruble, which was trading around 80 to the dollar before Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, lost 40 percent of its value in the following days, slumping to an unprecedented level of 150 to the dollar.

It has since clawed back much of that, trading at around 105 rubles to the dollar, seemingly having profited from talks between Moscow and Kyiv to end the conflict.

Despite having been cut off from much of its foreign currency reserves due to Western sanctions, the Russian central bank has nevertheless occasionally sold some to support the ruble.

Together with strict capital controls that require exporters to sell most of their foreign currency to the central bank and limits on consumers accessing their holdings, the measures appear to be working.

[...]

Russian economy expert Janis Kluge at the Berlin-based SWP think tank tweeted recently that the ruble was strengthening thanks to strict capital controls and large oil and gas revenues following the initial sanctions “shock”.

In Ukraine, which is under martial law, the central bank has suspended all currency trading and set a fixed exchange rate of approximately 29 hryvnia to the dollar.

It also banned foreign currency withdrawals and most cross-border payments.

[...]

Finance Minister Sergiy Marchenko recently said on Ukrainian television that the central bank’s measures created “certain conditions under which there is exchange rate stability today”.
He also noted that Ukraine has received support from its international partners including the European Union and World Bank, adding that the International Monetary Fund has approved a $1.4 billion emergency aid programme for Ukraine.

Ousmene Mandeng, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics, warned that while the measures may be justified by the extreme circumstances, they carry certain risks.

“The suspension of foreign exchange trading is de facto equivalent to a price freeze and… if prolonged can lead to a black market for foreign exchange and de facto multiple currency” use, he told AFP.

[...]

Ukrainians fleeing the country with hryvnia in their pockets are facing the most direct problems due to lack of convertibility of the currency.

The European Commission’s Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis said recently that the commission was working together with the European Central Bank “to provide some kind of convertibility assistance so that people are able to convert at least certain amounts of their savings in hryvnia into euros”.

Germany agrees gas deal with Qatar to help end dependency on Russia

Bodies Litter The Floors Of Mariupol Hospital As Ukrainian Medics Fight To Save Lives

Bonus: hexbear losing its shit, going all-out for genocidal oligarchy

'Russian soldiers took over my farm’: the battle for food supplies in Ukraine (The Guardian)

Russia mines sea routes from Bosphorus to Odesa, blames Ukraine – media (Kyiv Post)

Andrii Klymenko, editor-in-chief of the BlackSeaNews portal and co-founder of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, reported the news on Facebook, according to Ukrinform.

“The real danger at sea: Russia has mined the recommended routes from the Bosphorus to Odesa and said that these are Ukrainian mines. Another dangerous misinformation by the enemy,” Klymenko said.

The expert clarified that the port of Sochi issued a warning on March 18, addressing ship owners and captains in the region about the threat of ‘Ukrainian Navy mines drifting in the Black Sea’.

In particular, the document signed by Sochi Port Captain Vyacheslav Rumyantsev reads: “According to the hydrographic service of the Black Sea Fleet, moored naval mines of the Ukrainian Navy close to the ports of Odesa, Ochakiv, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi have drifted away amid storm.”

Furthermore, the notice for ‘all shipowners and captains” recommends that they take special precautions when sailing in the southwestern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea due to the possibility of drifting mines setting off.

In Klymenko’s opinion, this warning is aimed at preventing commercial maritime traffic in the Black Sea and requires immediate deployment into the Black Sea of the NATO Permanent Mine and Trawler Group.

He also noted that ‘it is impossible to count the number of mines drifting in the stormy sea on principle as only those who planted them can do so.

Note that Ukrainian mines apparently do exist, though these are land mines:

Ukraine’s venerable Odessa readies for Russia’s brutal push up the Black Sea coast (Washington Post, March 4)

ODESSA, Ukraine — The beach where locals and tourists sunbathe in the summer is now covered in mines. The sand is being shoveled into sacks that can be used as both roadblocks and glass fortification.

Gaze out across the Black Sea in some parts of the city and Russian warships are visible.

[...]

While Ukraine has anti-ship missiles to defend the shore, the country’s naval fleet is considered a particular weak spot in its defense. It lost most of its ships when Russia seized a key base in 2014. The vessels it has now don’t have missiles. The navy has no modern frigates.

I haven't found anything about Ukrainian naval mines, but perhaps they are secret.

From AP Live Updates:

WARSAW, Poland — Officials in Poland say that trucks headed for Belarus are backed up for 40 kilometers (25 miles) while they wait to reach the Koroszczyn border point as a group of protesters is blocking the road there. The protesters are calling for a ban on trade with Russia and its ally Belarus.

The protesters, Ukrainians and Poles, have been blocking access to the crossing – on and off – for some two weeks, to pressure Moscow into ending its war on Ukraine.

The latest round of the “NO Trade with Russia!” protest in eastern Poland began early Saturday.

Some 950 trucks were waiting to cross into Belarus early Sunday, according to spokesman for the local tax office, Michal Derus. The waiting time was 32 hours, he said.

The road leading to the border point has been closed and the police were separating the protesters from the trucks and the drivers, road infrastructure authorities said.

The pressure of truck traffic on the Koroszczyn border point increased after Poland’s largest crossing into Belarus, in Kuznica, was closed in November, following border guard clashes with Middle East migrants who were trying to illegally cross into Poland, European Union member.

Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called on the European Union to halt all land and sea trade with Russia.

Also, a longer story from a Turkish publication has interviews with protesters:

Protesters block Poland-Belarus highway to choke Russia's economy (TRT World)

Maistruk, who is part of Euromaidan, the pro-democracy movement behind the protest, worked for an anti-corruption organisation in Kiev before she was forced to flee the capital. She is one of a handful of people who, she says, have been taking turns camping out near the crossing since last week. In practice, since the protest started last week, the line of trucks headed to Belarus has been moved back about five kilometres from the crossing, where Polish police officers are redirecting traffic.

“When we started to stop the traffic [on the border] police didn’t interfere. They were quite supportive towards the protesters and trying to [ensure] our safety,” Maistruk explains, adding there had been some confrontations between drivers, some of whom she said were Putin supporters, and the protesters.