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Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - April 6-7
This thread is posted Monday/Wednesday/Friday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.
If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.
Maybe not so much news, or maybe slow news: Perun, an otherwise unremarkable gaming youtuber, is using his day job expertise for a very unique take on Ukraine. He's apparently an Australian civil servant involved with arms procurement and long-term defense expenditure planning. He has videos on the following topics. I'll try to give a bit of a tldr, as the whole series is a 4h commitment.
(in chronological order)
Why Russia's numerical advantage (boots and dollars) doesn't come through for them in Ukraine: Nukes, navies and prestige projects are expensive, as is the skeleton army of officers and mothballed tanks that are supposed to be used with conscription.
Russia is indeed sending their best troops, as evidenced by them losing disproportionally their most expensive assets, like the highly modernized tank variants. There is no "just you wait until the Spetsnaz arrive". The Spetsnaz are already here, they tried to take Hostomel.
Lessons from the Drone war. Much cheaper than a proper air force, of course, and much easier to produce domestically.
Will ATGMs be a mass-extinction event for Tanks? Well, maybe not, but they're quite a good counter and power balancer for minor nations. Like drones, minor powers can build them domestically. Also, both of those are very cheap for what they provide. However, tanks will probably still have a place in modern armies.
Reservists and Irregulars as a super cheap and quite effective force in a defensive war. Also a discussion of how important it is to properly plan for such situations. The "here's 50,000 AKs and ammo, grab what you need and make some Molotovs" is maybe not the best use of resources, if you have the foresight to figure out something better ahead of time. But damn if the TDF isn't effective.
If the 4h commitment scares you off, just give it a quick look in one of the topics. Perun seems to value your time and will generally give you his own cliff notes summary ahead of time. Pleasant style, that bit.
Or purchase a bunch from a neighboring state, then proceed to eradicate occupying troops, and then name service dogs after the model title. :P
There's a few takes that there's no way in hell I'm going to be able to find now that summarize Russia's offensive quite well, as far as I'm concerned. Here's my Cliff notes:
When your position of power rests on the shoulders of "a competent army is perfectly capable to take over the state", you seek to diminish the power of your armed forces to the point where it can no longer be a reasonable threat to your seat.
When your position of power also rests on the shoulders of "letting corrupt politicians get rich off the backs of the civil projects they're supposed to oversee is easier than providing decent living conditions for the entire country", what you end up with is military personnel profitting from money that was meant for improvement of the armed forces (which you don't really want to be strong, remember: all you need is posturing), which in turns ends up ruining your armed forces' ability to take part in a military conflict effectively.
There is such terrible communication (not) happening between separate parts of the Russian military theater that during the initial assault several groups of military personnel straight up rushed into Ukrainian territory, solo and unprotected, and got completely obliterated. (One case I remember is a Rosgvardia / Russian National Guard car driving full speed on Ukrainian roads, only to be blown up by a rocket charge from the front. This was filmed on a webcam overlooking the road. The commentators'd expressed their surprise at what the hell was a single Rosgvardia unarmored vehicle doing well beyond the front line.)
While there were competent and experienced units deployed in Ukraine, there were also a lot of not-techically-conscripts – boy, no older than 20 – there, forced to participate and facing severe punishment if they'd refused. They had no combat experience: Russian armed forces rarely prepare you for actual combat, despite all the bullshit about "The West™ wants us dead!!!1" on the airwaves throughout 2010s. They had no rights to resist off of, either: Russia is not a country where the rule of law and human rights are concepts taken too seriously.
Some of the analysts had suggested that Russia using its highly-advanced supersonic missiles is only part posturing: partly, and perhaps more importantly, it may have been an indicator of lacking other effective offensive systems. So while they may be using their best weapons, it may be out of necessity or as a spectacularly-poor attempt to intimidate an opponent fighting a defensive war. (I suppose it helped that it was picked up and sucked on by oh so many Russian propaganda channels. The current Russian government requires its people to believe that Russia is strong and just.)
Honestly, the hypersonic missile was completely unremarkable. I suspect it was a propaganda victory in Russia, but it's not like it's a maneuvering hypersonic missile, which is when they get really scary. As it is, it's basically an SRBM, which we have seen aplenty in this conflict.
I'll note that Perun, given his perspective, will give you an entirely different viewpoint. He's an arms procurement guy, so he'll tell you all about how they're spending money in the wrong places. He's steering well clear of things like tactics and corruption, which he knows no more about than any of us. What you end up with is a narrow, but quite in depth view of the conflict from one angle. Which is to say, without being at odds with your views, he'll come up with substantially different (and not mutually exclusive) conclusions than you.
That was absolutely fantastic. Thank you for the link.
I'll accept past-tense remarks like this at the soonest in...
1 hour. Go watch the rest before you form an opinion.
(/s)
I watch on 2x :) and i still have one video to go!
German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians in Bucha
BND being useful for once. Wow. This is good news for when we actually want to prosecute these atrocities.
In the fight against Putin, Senate unanimously approves measure that once helped beat Hitler
p.s. This is big news, IMO, and also somewhat ironic considering the USSR was a major benefactor of the original Lend-Lease program. For those unaware of WWII Lend-Lease: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease
I understand the historical symbolism but not the practical significance. Isn't the US already shipping billions in weapons to Ukraine for free?
Is this basically Congress giving the Biden administration a blank check, or are there limits? Is there a financial difference because it's structured as a loan rather than an expense?
Historically at least, pretty much. Lend-Lease basically marked the shift from "yeah, sure, Britain can buy our stuff, but they gotta pick it up here and pay in cash" to "we'll figure out the payment situation after the war".
In first, Japan condemns Russia for 'war crime' in Ukraine
Russia's Bucha horrors are pushing India, Turkey, other studiously neutral countries to the brink of condemnation
[...]
Breaking ranks with EU, Hungary says ready to pay for Russian gas in roubles
Also worth mentioning is the probably slightly related news posted by @AugustusFerdinand:
EU triggers mechanism to strip Hungary of billions worth of budget funds
Pope kisses Ukrainian flag, condemns 'the massacre of Bucha'
Seven-in-Ten Americans Now See Russia as an Enemy (Pew Research Center)
In view of everything else, this almost doesn't feel like headline-worthy news.
I've spent much of my life under the clear impression that Russia is The Enemy in the United States. (If you know me, you know I pay close attention to the US media. That's how I know.) It's been further elaborated upon to me, from the perspectives of national security and everyday behavior.
So, for me, seeing the number spike from "nearly half of Americans" to "more than two third of Americans" is almost insignificant.
The trope of an Evil Russian™ is everywhere in the American media. If the Russian in question is not evil, they must speak with a thick accent so as to be distinct from Americans. (Even if the Russian is also an American, even by birth.) Damn near everywhere is a mockery of the Russian language, where Cyrillic and Latin have engaged in extramarital coke-fueled orgy to produce a script that's revolting to both sides. If there isn't an AK-47, an Adidas sports suit, or the word "сука" either spoken or written, you might never have guessed someone with roots in Russia may be involved.
And now there's a real, genuine atrocity to fuel the terrible stereotypes.
The US has butchered the image of a Russian person, and now real Russians are making sure to live up to the horrid stupidity and the simple-minded egoism because a 70-year-old thug wanted to go out with a bang.
Apparently folks around the world are cancelling presentations of classical Russian music. I think they should wait, at least for a moment, until the final dirge of the Russian culture has sounded. The apex of the wailing violin string is drawing near indeed.
Deleted. Reason:
https://tildes.net/~news/10xb/megathread_for_news_updates_discussion_of_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_april_6_7#comment-77rn
I can’t agree with this in any nation. There is a class of citizens, call it the participatory class, or perhaps the enfranchised class, who probably deserve responsibility. In the U.S. today, this is probably the wealthiest 2/3 of college educated folks plus a number of techbros and other business hustlers. I don’t know who it is in Russia or Germany of yore.
Nations are rarely homogeneous, and usually to the extent they are, it’s usually the result of heavy handed subjugation.
I met a Russian on the street the other day. No fan of putin, bit fearful for his safety to admit his nationality. Totally decent guy. Surely he bears no responsibility?
I think the issue here is people from well-established democracies looking at Russians and saying what they would say to their own fellow citizen: "Participate in the political process! It's your country too!".
What these same people don't understand is: Russia is not a democracy. After the glimmer of hope that was the turn of the millenium, it has been slowly turning into an autocratic state. Here, participation in the political process is only possible at a low level, and even then it bears significant risks. People are regularly beaten and tortured in the police stations for disobeying the "party line".
It's one thing to go out to protest in, say, Berlin. Unless the protest starts off or turn violent, you're unlikely to ever go to jail, let alone be brutally beaten by the pro-government savages in the law enforcement. You can afford to not only stage protests but also invoke your influence as a citizen of your city, region, and the state in order to affect policies.
In Russia, the best you get is 2 minutes in the news and the higher-ups not giving you a look until you've crossed the line of disagreeing with the regime.
(If all this sounds like dystopian fiction and you feel like there's no way this could be true in the 2020s, welcome to the club of the well-off. Also, stay the hell away from political discussions involving autocracies.)
I'd love to exercise my political rights. First, I must have them.
Particularly in a dictatorship, I don't believe this sort of "collective responsibility" is a thing. Russians have about the same duty to oppose their government as we do, and about equal power to do so - usually almost nil.
What opportunities individuals have to support or oppose government policies needs to be judged on a case-by-case basis.
There's a parallel to be made to climate change. How much are we collectively responsible for our actions, etc.
I don't think any of this is particularly meaningful. The questions that need answers are much more specific: What are the steps to take to end this war? And in ending it: what are the priorities? (eg. is it more important that it ends fast, that it doesn't cause environmental damage, economical damage, inside/outside ukraine, that we preserve ukraine as a country, minimize casualties, etc…)
Debating how just sanctions are against the Common Russian People is imo meaningless. I don't think it matters at all to "get justice" on anybody right now. So it's more the matter of: which sanctions are going to help achieve the aforementioned goals.
Yeah, that's a fair point. It is a rather meaningless philosophical/ethical debate to be having amidst events such as these, which have far more important and immediate issues that need to be addressed first, and real-world consequences for all involved (including Russian citizens). Sorry for dragging us down this path, @ThatFanficGuy, especially if I made you feel in any way attacked or vilified by anything I said. That was not my intent. I apologize.
No need to apologize. It's all pretty heated right now.
It's important to read the survey questions to see what respondents are reacting to. In this case, there are three questions:
So, although the first question is ambiguous, the survey seems to be asking about your knowledge of American and Russian foreign policy and the Russian government. It's also about Russia's relationship with the US, not other countries.
A different survey would be needed to get at what stereotypes Americans have of Russian people.
UN assembly suspends Russia from top human rights body
Video of an empassioned speech by Guy Verhofstadt (Belgian MEP) at the European Council, about the ineffectiveness of the EU's Russian sanctions.
@Adys, thoughts? I had never heard of Mr. Verhofstadt before, but consider me impressed.
I'd quite like to see a package of sanctions targetting Putin's inner circle directly.
I'm struggling to think how it might affect them – likely because I'm not seeing the effect of freezing foreign assets – but I would like to see their names out in public and their faces in the media. Might as well see who enables the Satan's work.
Was a good speech indeed. There is frustration in the bubble that our sanctions are frustratingly not having enough effect and we’re trying to figure out how to do more.
More Russians Consider Costs of War in Ukraine as Casualties Mount
Hard to quote highlights from this article, since it's essentially just a series of personal accounts of various people inside Russia, many of whom have suffered the loss of their family members who were soldiers. But IMO it's an interesting article, worth reading, since it's the first glimpse inside Russia I have seen that shows some of the effects of this war on the people there, and shares their opinions on the situation.