15 votes

Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - May 2-3

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Tags: russia, ukraine, recurring, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine

This thread is posted Monday/Wednesday/Friday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

30 comments

  1. [5]
    unknown user
    Link
    For those who might be wondering where I am and how I'm doing: I'm currently in Tbilisi, the capital of the state of Georgia. I've been to Moscow, to Minsk (capital of Belarus), Istanbul (Turkey),...

    For those who might be wondering where I am and how I'm doing:

    I'm currently in Tbilisi, the capital of the state of Georgia. I've been to Moscow, to Minsk (capital of Belarus), Istanbul (Turkey), and ended up here thanks to the gracious support of Adys and Gaywallet. (He was the second friend I'd mentioned way back in the threads. Wasn't sure whether I should – privacy and all – but I hope they'd rather hear their support be publicly affirmed. Gaywallet was instrumental to me being able to get out of Russia in the first place.)

    Long story short, I'm on an extended vacation here. Still waiting for that work visa to go through, which may take months. Hoping for less, but doesn't seem likely currently. As soon as it's done, I'm moving again, hopefully to something more permanent.

    Currently recuperating from a long and tedious journey. I have everything I need here, so barring a local disaster I will be fine.

    Tbilisi is a beautiful fuckin' city. Mountains, old narrow streets, massive modern squares, green parks... If y'all up for a visit somewhere, visit Georgia. If y'all visiting Tbilisi, PM me: let's hang out.

    20 votes
    1. kfwyre
      Link Parent
      I'm very happy for you! I can't imagine how stressful this has been. Hopefully your visa goes through quickly. Also, @Adys and @Gaywallet (I miss them) are incredible.

      I'm very happy for you! I can't imagine how stressful this has been. Hopefully your visa goes through quickly.

      Also, @Adys and @Gaywallet (I miss them) are incredible.

      8 votes
    2. 3_3_2_LA
      Link Parent
      My dad has spent extensive time in Tbilisi and has very fond memories! We're still in contact with some of the locals -- they're very warm and amicable :) Hoping for the best for you!

      My dad has spent extensive time in Tbilisi and has very fond memories! We're still in contact with some of the locals -- they're very warm and amicable :)
      Hoping for the best for you!

      2 votes
    3. [2]
      Parliament
      Link Parent
      Out of curiosity, where do you have citizenship?

      Out of curiosity, where do you have citizenship?

      1 vote
      1. unknown user
        Link Parent
        Russia still. I'd rather have a Russian passport right now than go stateless: being a citizen of a recognized state brings less hassle to my life, which is what I need at the moment.

        Russia still. I'd rather have a Russian passport right now than go stateless: being a citizen of a recognized state brings less hassle to my life, which is what I need at the moment.

        4 votes
  2. [11]
    skybrian
    Link
    Mass flight of tech workers turns Russian IT into another casualty of war (Washington Post) [...] [..]

    Mass flight of tech workers turns Russian IT into another casualty of war (Washington Post)

    The Russian Association for Electronic Communications told the lower house of Russia’s parliament last month that 50,000 to 70,000 tech workers have fled the country, with 100,000 more expected to leave over the next month — for a total of about 10 percent of the sector’s workforce. Ok Russians, a new nonprofit group helping emigres, used a sampling of data from neighboring nations and social media surveys to estimate that nearly 300,000 Russians overall had left since the war began.

    [...]

    Desperate to stem the tide, the Russian government passed an unprecedented incentive package offering IT firms tax breaks and reduced regulation. IT workers, meanwhile, are being promised subsidized housing, salary bumps, and no income tax for the next three years. Notably, the decree signed by Putin also grants IT workers an exemption from conscription into military service, something many young Russians have sought to avoid by fleeing the country.

    Mikhail Mizhinsky, who runs Relocode, a London-based company helping tech firms relocate, said his Russian clients have surged to more than 200 since the war, a 20-fold increase. The largest are looking to move 1,000 employees. Most are relocating 100 to 200 staffers.

    [..]

    A person close to Yandex who spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions said the company was studying the creation of new or expanded offices in Armenia, Georgia, and Turkey, where “many” of its engineers have recently moved.

    The company has also been trying to figure out ways to overcome logistical challenges — including paying relocated staff, given that Western sanctions have largely cut Russian bank cards off from the international financial system. In March, Yandex gave a one-time cash bonus for employee retention, and has started offering its staff psychological counseling.

    7 votes
    1. [10]
      unknown user
      Link Parent
      I mentioned in one of my comments in these threads that the government is now launching an IT education program with massive discounts for the education, including paying for the entire course...

      I mentioned in one of my comments in these threads that the government is now launching an IT education program with massive discounts for the education, including paying for the entire course from the state's pocket. There programs go anywhere from backend management, testing, UI design and so on, with the aim to (obviously) plug at least one of the many holes in this ship with a new cadre of IT workers.

      5 votes
      1. [4]
        vektor
        Link Parent
        Do you think IT is particularly affected, what with it being a highly internationalized profession? I could imagine that IT folks have good english skills and with them being online almost by...

        Do you think IT is particularly affected, what with it being a highly internationalized profession? I could imagine that IT folks have good english skills and with them being online almost by definition, they are bound to get a perspective from beyond the propaganda curtain.

        Or do you think it's a general thing in Russia these days?

        Or maybe it's mostly IT who can expect to readily find employment abroad...

        1 vote
        1. [3]
          unknown user
          Link Parent
          Sorry, affected by what?

          Sorry, affected by what?

          1. [2]
            vektor
            Link Parent
            The exodus of professionals out of Russia.

            The exodus of professionals out of Russia.

            1 vote
            1. unknown user
              Link Parent
              Most of the people who left, left at the very start of the war. Can't tell you how many of them had an idea to leave Russia for political reasons, and how many fled because of the seeming...

              Most of the people who left, left at the very start of the war. Can't tell you how many of them had an idea to leave Russia for political reasons, and how many fled because of the seeming impending doom of living there.

              That said, many people leave (or, "relocate", as is the term right now) with an intention to stay abroad permanently, or at least years down the line. Folks with kids reportedly find it difficult to put their kids in a kindergarten, for example. The rent market in Tbilisi is damn near closed off, not just because of the sharply-increased prices (2× and up), but also because most apartments have been rented out to people who need a place to stay while they're looking to purchase a place here permanently.

              Given how strong the push has been to build up an IT professional base in Russia? I'd wager the government fears a massive hole in their infrastructure. A state does not pay for the entirety of someone's education if it isn't desperate to have that professional as soon as possible. (Just a reminder: some courses only have 25%, 50%, and 75% of their cost subsidized by the government. These vary based on the applicant, not the program itself.)

              I have no clear data to show that many high-paying professionals outside of IT are leaving Russia as well. I'd wager they don't want to: they have a stable business here that might even survive the staggering collapse of the economy that even the government can no longer afford to be quiet about. Uprooting takes more effort the more roots you have. I had a bare minimum. These folks have a lot.

              Nothing that I know would tell me that the job market is collapsing in Russia. Doesn't mean it's gonna be fun for anyone involved.

              4 votes
      2. [5]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        Between this and avoiding conscription, it seems like a lot of young Russians will be learning to code? (But that still doesn't mean they'll stay.)

        Between this and avoiding conscription, it seems like a lot of young Russians will be learning to code? (But that still doesn't mean they'll stay.)

        1 vote
        1. [3]
          unknown user
          Link Parent
          That's the goal. Also older Russians: the conditions of the government subsidy state that pensioners can also get some of the biggest discounts on their education costs. The conscription thing is...

          That's the goal. Also older Russians: the conditions of the government subsidy state that pensioners can also get some of the biggest discounts on their education costs. The conscription thing is meant to attract young men, sure, but Russia is clearly beyond the point where they'd want to be picky about who attends the courses.

          Also responding to @EgoEimi: Russia doesn't have a lot of positive work ideas, like "work-life balance", to make IT seem that much more appealing for most people. If they learn to code and find employment in Russia, a lot of the time it's going to be an unpleasant yet necessary job for them. It might pay well, but without an infrastructure of taking care of oneself during and after work (which barely exists in Russia outside of Moscow), it's going to drain them much like working a cashier at a local supermarket would.

          Russia may get the numbers, but that does not mean they're getting anywhere near Silicon Valley or New York when it comes to the quality of the work being done. I also imagine the work not being properly supervised, what with the managers of these new workers having very little idea about the real-life consequences of the requirements they put on the workers.

          Russia thinks the numbers are what matters: so long as they can bullshit their way towards looking like a competent state, they need nothing else, including said competence. This will bite them in the ass in the long run... assuming there isn't a new government unassociated with Putin and his cronies.

          5 votes
          1. [2]
            NoblePath
            Link Parent
            Speculation: lousy working conditions in sensitive areas makes the system vulnerable to spies paying for access.

            Speculation: lousy working conditions in sensitive areas makes the system vulnerable to spies paying for access.

            1. unknown user
              Link Parent
              My guess would be that they pay people working in companies that matter quite well, and supply them with much, if not all, of the things they need. It's the rest of the people (those working in...

              My guess would be that they pay people working in companies that matter quite well, and supply them with much, if not all, of the things they need. It's the rest of the people (those working in areas that don't matter, like infrastructure and health care and education...) who suffer as a result.

              It's not unlike the CEO pay gap in the US, except it's not CEOs that get massively overpaid: it's the people who work adjacent to the government's true priorities. So, Gazprom higher-up managers and execs get paid a whole bunch. The FSB. Freelance hackers they hire. Hell, the military complex was also supplied with massive cash: it's just that a lot of it got stolen by the very generals overseeing the transfers, in a typical Russian fashion.

              Plus, I imagine they vet people that work on Putin's plans, like the troll factory in Saint Petersburg.

              With that in mind, Russia is not nearly as mighty as it portrays itself to be. There are definitely going to be holes in the system ripe for exploitation. The stories that come out of this over the next 5-10 years could be very interesting indeed.

              2 votes
        2. EgoEimi
          Link Parent
          I wonder if these kinds of incentives produce good talent, or if it'll just produce a mediocre and uncompetitive workforce.

          I wonder if these kinds of incentives produce good talent, or if it'll just produce a mediocre and uncompetitive workforce.

          2 votes
  3. cfabbro
    Link
    CIA instructs Russians on how to share secrets with the spy agency (WaPo)

    CIA instructs Russians on how to share secrets with the spy agency (WaPo)

    With the war in Ukraine in its third month, the CIA is taking a new approach to its core job of recruiting spies and soliciting secrets.

    On Monday, the CIA published instructions for how Russians can covertly volunteer information using an encrypted conduit to the agency’s website. The hope is to attract intelligence — and potentially gain more access to official Russian secrets — from disaffected people who have been trying to contact the CIA since the war began, officials said.

    To ensure the would-be informants are not caught by Russian state security, the CIA spelled out detailed Russian-language instructions in three social media posts on how to use the Tor Internet browser, which lets users move online anonymously, as well as virtual private networks, or VPNs. The steps will open a dedicated channel to the CIA that is more secure than navigating to the agency using an ordinary Web browser or Internet connection.

    “Do not use your home or office computer to get in touch with us,” the agency cautions in its step-by-step guide. To circumvent online monitors, Russians should use a VPN that is not based in Russia, China or other countries considered “unfriendly” to the United States. Free VPNs are generally inferior to paid services, the CIA advises, encouraging its contacts to spring for a premium version.

    “Concerned Russians are trying to engage CIA, and we wanted to provide a way to safely contact us,” said a CIA official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence issues.

    The CIA is accustomed to disaffected citizens or government employees volunteering information, sometimes when they show up at U.S. embassies. “Walk-ins,” whether physical or digital, are scrutinized and vetted, and officials often try to determine what access they might have to secrets other than the ones they come bearing, according to former intelligence officials familiar with the process.

    The new instructions are aimed at “those who feel compelled to reach us because of the Russian government’s unjust war,” a CIA spokesperson said in an email. “Our global mission demands that individuals can contact us securely from anywhere.”

    “It is a signal that they are being overwhelmed by people trying to contact U.S. intelligence in ways that are less than secure,” said John Sipher, a former CIA officer who served for nearly 30 years, including in Russia. “In this day and age, I think it is appropriate to offer means for initial contact that are safer than walking into an embassy or approaching an American on the street.”

    6 votes
  5. skybrian
    Link
    Ukrainian Military Says Russian Patrol Boats Hit in Black Sea Drone Strikes [...]

    Ukrainian Military Says Russian Patrol Boats Hit in Black Sea Drone Strikes

    Video published by the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, shows a drone software interface with coordinates that correspond to a location south of Zmiinyi Island, known internationally as Snake Island, in the Black Sea. The drone is seen hovering over and striking two boats, which the Ukrainian defense forces said were Russian Raptor-class patrol boats. The Bayraktar drone is seen in a clip cut between the two strikes.

    [...]

    The condition of the crew and the boats was unknown.

    3 votes
  6. [8]
    cfabbro
    Link
    Pro-Kremlin Publishing House Catches Fire in Moscow, Videos Show (Newsweek)

    Pro-Kremlin Publishing House Catches Fire in Moscow, Videos Show (Newsweek)

    A large fire broke out at the warehouse of a pro-Kremlin publishing house near Moscow in the early hours of Tuesday morning, videos show.

    At around midnight in the Bogorodsk urban district of the Moscow region, the warehouse of the pro-Kremlin "Prosveshchenie" publishing house, where printed materials were stored, burst into flames, Belarusian news outlet Nexta reported.

    The press service of the Russian Emergencies Ministry told Russia's state-run news agency TASS that by roughly 3 a.m. local time, the area of the blaze was at almost 34,000 square meters.

    Responding to news of the blaze, Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, said on his Telegram channel that shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion on February 24, the publisher's management ordered staff to minimize the mention of Kyiv and Ukraine in school textbooks.

    3 votes
    1. [6]
      cfabbro
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Multiple Dead After Mysterious Explosion at Russian Ammunition Plant (Newsweek)

      Multiple Dead After Mysterious Explosion at Russian Ammunition Plant (Newsweek)

      Amid the country's ongoing military conflict in Ukraine, an ammunition plant near the Ural Mountains in Russia suffered a massive explosion which resulted in fatalities.

      The FKP Perm Powder Plant, which produces gunpowder and is located in the city of Perm, reportedly endured an explosion at approximately 8 p.m. local time, according to local authorities. The resulting fire eventually killed two workers and injured others. The incident has so far been pinned on "a product" that "caught fire."

      "According to the information received, on 05/01/2022, at about 20:00, a product caught fire at the production site N 12 of the Plastmassa production facility at the Perm Powder Plant FKP," the Russian State Labor Inspectorate for the Perm Territory said in a statement. "As a result of the incident, 3 employees were injured, 1 of them died on the spot, 2 were taken to the hospital. Subsequently, another 1 worker died in the hospital."

      The Inspectorate added that it is continuing to investigate the cause of the blast. Another news outlet, Visegrad 24, raised that notion of sabotage while sharing a video of the factory fire.

      3 votes
      1. [5]
        vektor
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Ok, what the hell is going on? We're seeing a lot of these kinds of reports right now. I mean, I wouldn't expect the public to know, but just in case: Do we have any info on who's behind this?...

        Ok, what the hell is going on? We're seeing a lot of these kinds of reports right now.

        I mean, I wouldn't expect the public to know, but just in case: Do we have any info on who's behind this? Foreign intelligence? Ukrainian, maybe? Russian political activists? Regular old accidents blown out of proportion?

        2 votes
        1. [2]
          cfabbro
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          I don't think anyone really knows, and if they do they're unlikely to admit to it, or it might be a little from column A and a little from B... but I don't think this is just regular accidents...

          I don't think anyone really knows, and if they do they're unlikely to admit to it, or it might be a little from column A and a little from B... but I don't think this is just regular accidents blown out of proportion, considering the "value" of the targets.

          Although one interesting thing that could be related is all the Freedom of Russia Legion graffiti (with their telegram info) popping up all over Russia. And the CIA is apparently pointing Russians who want to get in contact with them to their darknet site too, which might also be related. Not to mention the 2 million Ukrainians who were living in the country before the war, along with all the other disaffected ethnic minorities. Russia has made a lot of enemies over the years, both externally and internally. So I wouldn't be surprised if there are actually several organized sabotage groups already operating in the country who are behind all the recent fires, explosions, bridge collapses, etc.

          6 votes
          1. unknown user
            Link Parent
            I'm really digging the variant of the logo with the single vertical blue stripe and the white L. I know it's supposed to represent the opposition "new Russian" flag without the red (i.e. without...

            I'm really digging the variant of the logo with the single vertical blue stripe and the white L.

            I know it's supposed to represent the opposition "new Russian" flag without the red (i.e. without the blood on our hands), but I really like how it looks.

            3 votes
        2. unknown user
          Link Parent
          Methinks they are no accidents. Beyond that, I don't care who lights the initial spark. As long as government-adjacent infrastructure suffers, I'm game.

          Methinks they are no accidents.

          Beyond that, I don't care who lights the initial spark. As long as government-adjacent infrastructure suffers, I'm game.

          4 votes
        3. skybrian
          Link Parent
          One thing that could be done using public knowledge would be to compare with the base rate before the invasion. I don't know if I would ever read about fires in Russia before, since I wasn't...

          One thing that could be done using public knowledge would be to compare with the base rate before the invasion. I don't know if I would ever read about fires in Russia before, since I wasn't paying attention.

          3 votes
    2. cmccabe
      Link Parent
      Reddit has been filled with reports of these mysterious fires across Russia for the past few weeks. They often just link to Twitter posts, so it's tough to validate them. Anyway, here's a recent...

      Reddit has been filled with reports of these mysterious fires across Russia for the past few weeks. They often just link to Twitter posts, so it's tough to validate them. Anyway, here's a recent map someone made to show where some of the (alleged) fires have occurred:
      https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhe081/special_combustion_operations_inside_russia/

      3 votes
  7. [3]
    cfabbro
    Link
    UEFA bans Russian football clubs from all competitions (CNN)

    UEFA bans Russian football clubs from all competitions (CNN)

    Russian national teams and clubs have been banned from participating in UEFA competitions "until further notice," European's football's governing body announced on Monday.

    Portugal, initially defeated by Russia in a playoff, will replace the country at the Women's Euro 2022 tournament scheduled for July in England, UEFA said.

    Russia will not play their two matches scheduled in April for the European qualification to the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023.

    For the 2022/23 season, Russia will not have any clubs participating in the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, UEFA Europa Conference League, UEFA Women's Champions League or UEFA Youth League.

    Also, UEFA said Russia's bid to host Euro 2028 or Euro 2032 has been ruled ineligible.

    The Russian city of St. Petersburg had already been stripped of the right to host this season's Champions League Final amid a number of sanctions imposed on Russia in March soon after its invasion of Ukraine began.

    Those sanctions included an indefinite ban by FIFA, world football's governing body, from international football and meant that Russia was expelled from the European playoffs for this year's World Cup in Qatar.

    2 votes
    1. [2]
      unknown user
      Link Parent
      Can, in this case, Russia compete as an "unassociated team" like they did in the Olympics? There sure was a lot of rah rah in Russia about that.

      Can, in this case, Russia compete as an "unassociated team" like they did in the Olympics?

      There sure was a lot of rah rah in Russia about that.

      1 vote
      1. cfabbro
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Honestly, I don't know for certain. But based on the wording, I think, unlike Tennis and a few of the other previous Russian athlete bans, this one is a straight up ban on those teams'...

        Honestly, I don't know for certain. But based on the wording, I think, unlike Tennis and a few of the other previous Russian athlete bans, this one is a straight up ban on those teams' participation, not just a ban on them participating under the Russian flag.

        2 votes