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Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - June 3
This thread is posted Monday/Wednesday/Friday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.
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Day 100 of the war. Felt appropriate to comment.
It appears I'm going to lose my bet on the Russian coup. Scenario 3: "Russia recovers somehow".
I'm surprised how well Russia recovered from its economical wounds; this played a huge factor. I am also surprised how well propaganda is working on the common Russian people right now - you'd think they'd be more cynical.
This doesn't mean a coup will not happen, but it's gone from "heading that way" to "heading away from it".
Quick personal update:
I've started learning Russian; not being able to speak it had become an obvious gap in my toolbox. Technically I already have 2 years of it under my belt, from high school, but all I really remembered from that is how to read it. In the past ~2-3 weeks I've fully immersed myself in Russian and it's paying off big time: I'm starting to be able to follow fairly fast-paced discussions. I was aiming for conversational level within 1 year, but at the current pace it looks like I'll be able to pull it off within a quarter of that.
And yes, I still want to learn Ukrainian. As I learn more Russian, my ability to understand Ukrainian increases, though at a much slower pace. It's a lot more difficult though because I can't as easily immerse myself in the language, so I decided to leave it for later.
@Deimos if you switch these topics to weekly, it'd be nice to have them every Thursday, as that's the day the war started.
PS: here is some heartwarming news from my country: https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/232885/grateful-ukrainian-refugees-to-help-clean-up-cinquantenaire-park
Everything I've read so far suggests that the economy is propped up, and very much not in recovery. This applies both to the ruble (which has stabilized to levels even better than post-Crimea), and to the economy in general. The government is trying to bandage over intense structural damage that becomes more and more apparent day by day.
Having no economic education or insight, I can only speculate that what perceived damage Russian economy had suffered at the very start of the war was exaggerated, and that things are getting worse over time. The sudden withdrawal of a lot of USD and EUR in cash, coupled with the brain drain, were two great (and conjunct) events, but not meteoric in consequence. Which is to say: it wouldn't be fair to consider one massive splash a starting point from which all further deterioration is measured. Instead, I would suggest that it'd kickstarted the long progress of unravelling, and it would indeed take time for the economy to collapse.
They are cynical. They've also been spoon-fed the state-sponsored bullshit at a time where there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of sudden shifts in one's daily life. All that, after having no interest in looking at things critically for a very long time. Which isn't to say Russia would have been more democratic if only had BBC produced more content for the market. It's to say that existential stress does funny things to people's psyche, especially those to whom it's clear they can't really leave.
Russians are a nation of survivors. Enduring centuries of bullshit from their governments does that to a people. This may look like laziness or complacency to the Western, politically-engaged observer. To me, it looks more like the psyche of a broken, abused nation that has not had time to heal in any meaningful way yet.
I could be wrong. I guess I just don't want to imagine the entire nation being embodied by a psychopath with an AK-74 in a Soviet-era helmet who came into Ukraine to loot, torture, maim, rape, and murder.
Done, it will post once a week on Thursdays now.
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Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says (Newsweek)
What If Ukraine Wins? | Victory in the War Would Not End the Conflict With Russia
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-06-06/what-if-ukraine-wins
Ukraine signs deal with Westinghouse to end Russian nuclear fuel needs
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Presumably this is planning for what happens after the war is over?
The Fight to Survive Russia’s Onslaught in Eastern Ukraine (The New Yorker)
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Russia unexpectedly poor at cyberwar, say European military heads, by The Straits Times
(The entire article is only twice as long as the excerpt.)
Ukraine’s volunteer ‘Kraken’ unit takes the fight to the Russians (Washington Post)
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Russia strikes Kyiv for first time in weeks, battle rages in eastern Ukraine (Reuters)
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Top general details plan to train Ukrainians on rocket artillery (Washington Post)
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So it's alleged that Putin has terminal cancer and has survived an assassination attempt. If these rumours are credible, this has put a whole new angle on why he went to war in the first place.
I'm concerned that Ukraine is going to lose this conflict sooner or later. Russia already controls 20% of the country and their intensified offensives are actually starting to make real progress.
I'm no expert but to me it seems like quite slow progress. The Russians have been trying to take Severodonetsk for weeks now. If they do eventually succeed, it doesn't seem like it's going to be a big breakthrough, any more than taking Mariupol was?
The military experts talk about offensives "culminating" when the attacking army can no longer take any more ground. It doesn't seem like Russians are going to be able to move forward much?
Meanwhile, heavy losses on both sides.
Oil Tankers Make Rare Mid-Atlantic Switch of Russian Crude Cargo - Bloomberg (Archive)
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