15 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - June 3

This thread is posted Monday/Wednesday/Friday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

15 comments

  1. [4]
    Adys
    (edited )
    Link
    Day 100 of the war. Felt appropriate to comment. It appears I'm going to lose my bet on the Russian coup. Scenario 3: "Russia recovers somehow". I'm surprised how well Russia recovered from its...

    Day 100 of the war. Felt appropriate to comment.

    It appears I'm going to lose my bet on the Russian coup. Scenario 3: "Russia recovers somehow".
    I'm surprised how well Russia recovered from its economical wounds; this played a huge factor. I am also surprised how well propaganda is working on the common Russian people right now - you'd think they'd be more cynical.

    This doesn't mean a coup will not happen, but it's gone from "heading that way" to "heading away from it".

    Quick personal update:
    I've started learning Russian; not being able to speak it had become an obvious gap in my toolbox. Technically I already have 2 years of it under my belt, from high school, but all I really remembered from that is how to read it. In the past ~2-3 weeks I've fully immersed myself in Russian and it's paying off big time: I'm starting to be able to follow fairly fast-paced discussions. I was aiming for conversational level within 1 year, but at the current pace it looks like I'll be able to pull it off within a quarter of that.

    And yes, I still want to learn Ukrainian. As I learn more Russian, my ability to understand Ukrainian increases, though at a much slower pace. It's a lot more difficult though because I can't as easily immerse myself in the language, so I decided to leave it for later.

    @Deimos if you switch these topics to weekly, it'd be nice to have them every Thursday, as that's the day the war started.

    PS: here is some heartwarming news from my country: https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/232885/grateful-ukrainian-refugees-to-help-clean-up-cinquantenaire-park

    9 votes
    1. unknown user
      Link Parent
      Everything I've read so far suggests that the economy is propped up, and very much not in recovery. This applies both to the ruble (which has stabilized to levels even better than post-Crimea),...

      I'm surprised how well Russia recovered from its economical wounds

      Everything I've read so far suggests that the economy is propped up, and very much not in recovery. This applies both to the ruble (which has stabilized to levels even better than post-Crimea), and to the economy in general. The government is trying to bandage over intense structural damage that becomes more and more apparent day by day.

      Having no economic education or insight, I can only speculate that what perceived damage Russian economy had suffered at the very start of the war was exaggerated, and that things are getting worse over time. The sudden withdrawal of a lot of USD and EUR in cash, coupled with the brain drain, were two great (and conjunct) events, but not meteoric in consequence. Which is to say: it wouldn't be fair to consider one massive splash a starting point from which all further deterioration is measured. Instead, I would suggest that it'd kickstarted the long progress of unravelling, and it would indeed take time for the economy to collapse.

      I am also surprised how well propaganda is working on the common Russian people right now - you'd think they'd be more cynical.

      They are cynical. They've also been spoon-fed the state-sponsored bullshit at a time where there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of sudden shifts in one's daily life. All that, after having no interest in looking at things critically for a very long time. Which isn't to say Russia would have been more democratic if only had BBC produced more content for the market. It's to say that existential stress does funny things to people's psyche, especially those to whom it's clear they can't really leave.

      Russians are a nation of survivors. Enduring centuries of bullshit from their governments does that to a people. This may look like laziness or complacency to the Western, politically-engaged observer. To me, it looks more like the psyche of a broken, abused nation that has not had time to heal in any meaningful way yet.

      I could be wrong. I guess I just don't want to imagine the entire nation being embodied by a psychopath with an AK-74 in a Soviet-era helmet who came into Ukraine to loot, torture, maim, rape, and murder.

      11 votes
    2. Deimos
      Link Parent
      Done, it will post once a week on Thursdays now.

      @Deimos if you switch these topics to weekly, it'd be nice to have them every Thursday, as that's the day the war started.

      Done, it will post once a week on Thursdays now.

      9 votes
  2. cfabbro
    Link
    Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says (Newsweek)

    Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says (Newsweek)

    Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.

    The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.

    The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.

    "Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

    All three officials—one from the office of the Director of National Intelligence, one a retired Air Force senior officer, and one from the Defense Intelligence Agency—caution that the Russian leader's isolation makes it more difficult for U.S. intelligence to precisely assess Putin's status and health.

    "One source of our best intelligence, which is contact with outsiders, largely dried up as a result of the Ukraine war," says the DIA senior official. "Putin has had few meetings with foreign leaders," the official says, cutting off the insights that can sometimes be gained in face-to-face encounters. "Putin's isolation has thus increased levels of speculation."

    "We need to be mindful of the influence of wishful thinking," cautions the retired Air Force leader. "We learned—or didn't learn—that lesson the hard way with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein."

    "A nuclear-armed Russia is still a nuclear-armed Russia, whether Putin is strong or weak, in or out, and not wanting to provoke him or his potential successor into thinking we are hell bent on their destruction is an important part of continued strategic stability," says the DNI official.

    The DIA leader argues that in some ways, "Putin being sick or dying is good for the world, not just because of the future of Russia or ending the Ukraine war, but in diminishing the mad man threat of nuclear war.

    "A weakened Putin—an obviously declining leader, not one at the top of his game—has less influence over his advisors and subordinates, say, if he orders the use of nukes."

    As the official explains it, a strong Putin could bully his way through, overcoming objections from ministers and commanders. But a damaged Putin (and here the official mentions Donald Trump as a similar example), "one who might not be in control of all of his faculties, just doesn't have that kind of sway."

    "Putin is definitely sick ... whether he's going to die soon is mere speculation," the DIA official says. "Still, we shouldn't rest assured. We shouldn't answer our own mail, if you will, believing only the intelligence that affirms our own desired outcome. He's still dangerous, and chaos does lie ahead if he does die. We need to focus on that. Be ready."

    5 votes
  3. cmccabe
    Link
    What If Ukraine Wins? | Victory in the War Would Not End the Conflict With Russia https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-06-06/what-if-ukraine-wins

    What If Ukraine Wins? | Victory in the War Would Not End the Conflict With Russia
    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-06-06/what-if-ukraine-wins

    The goal of Ukrainian and Western strategy must be sustainable security for Ukraine. Kyiv’s partners have rightly refused to compromise on Ukrainian sovereignty and independence. But they also must think through “the day after” Ukraine wins. Rather than quixotic expectations of Russia bowing to a Ukrainian victory or simply exiting the international stage, sustainable security for Ukraine will demand painstaking effort and carefully calibrated increases in political, financial, and military investment. This is true even—or perhaps especially—if Ukraine wins. When the U.S. diplomat George Kennan, pondering the sources of Soviet conduct, stared into the future in 1947, he did not think in years. He thought in decades. To persevere and prevail in Ukraine, today’s Western leaders must do so, as well. As Tolstoy put it, “the strongest of all warriors are these two—time and patience.”

    5 votes
  4. skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine signs deal with Westinghouse to end Russian nuclear fuel needs [...] Presumably this is planning for what happens after the war is over?

    Ukraine signs deal with Westinghouse to end Russian nuclear fuel needs

    The agreement also increases the number of new nuclear units Westinghouse will build to nine from an earlier five, and the company will establish an engineering centre in the country.

    [...]

    Nuclear power covers around a half of all Ukrainian electricity needs and the energy minister said that in future Ukraine could also be a supplier of electricity to western Europe.

    Presumably this is planning for what happens after the war is over?

    4 votes
  5. skybrian
    Link
    The Fight to Survive Russia’s Onslaught in Eastern Ukraine (The New Yorker) [...] [...] [...] [...]

    The Fight to Survive Russia’s Onslaught in Eastern Ukraine (The New Yorker)

    I spent several days in the Donbas recently, where a number of officers and enlisted soldiers told me that Ukrainian infantry rarely see the enemy. Rather, battles are often fought at distances of ten miles or more. The war has become, as one soldier told me, a game of “artillery Ping-Pong.”

    [...]

    One of the soldiers switched to English to describe the fighting: “Let me put it like this: very fucking awful.” He went on, “We want to shoot the enemy, but we don’t see him. An infantryman has nothing to do in an artillery war other than dig—and run.”

    [...]

    In some fighting zones in the Donbas, Russian commanders have sent in fresh troops every day to replace those on the front. “One soldier advances two metres, and then another comes to push farther,” Tarnavsky said. In areas where battles have been the most intense, Russia has had, by his count, a five-to-one manpower advantage. Tarnavsky also estimated that Russia has an advantage of up to seven-to-one in artillery batteries and a similarly large stockpile of munitions. As a result, Russian forces can rely on wave after wave of indiscriminate fire from large-calibre artillery, along with missile and air strikes, to soften Ukraine’s defenses, inflicting large casualties before they advance.

    I heard multiple stories of Russia’s disproportionate reliance on heavy weaponry. A ten-member Ukrainian reconnaissance unit was spotted during a mission and then fired upon by three Tochka-U ballistic missiles, a munition hefty enough to take out a bridge or an entire command post. Tarnavsky told me of individual Ukrainian artillery systems targeted by Iskander missiles, which cost an estimated five million dollars a shot. “That’s a very expensive pleasure,” he said. “You have to be very rich, or very desperate.”

    [...]

    Still, Ukraine’s military doesn’t lack soldiers; mass mobilization efforts and an influx of volunteers have doubled the ranks of the armed forces since February. The more pressing shortfalls, Tarnavskiy told me, are of experience and skill. “A lot of regular military personnel have been killed,” he said. “They are replaced by doctors and mechanics. We have manpower, but much of this core”—those with combat experience who could lead and motivate new recruits—“is either dead or wounded.”

    [...]

    One afternoon, I visited a battery from the 55th Artillery Brigade that, for the last three weeks, has employed a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer. Two soldiers from the unit had gone to a U.S. training ground in Germany for instruction and then come back to teach the others. The dark-green howitzer was positioned on a stretch of grass near the edge of the forest, a giant cannon with its roughly seventeen-foot barrel pointed at the horizon. Howitzers can strike targets twenty-five miles away, and are far more accurate than many of Ukraine’s preëxisting, Soviet-era artillery systems. “We used to have to shoot ten times,” Oleg, a sergeant and senior gunner in the unit, told me. “Now we take one shot to correct our fire and on the second hit the target.”

    4 votes
  6. unknown user
    Link
    Russia unexpectedly poor at cyberwar, say European military heads, by The Straits Times (The entire article is only twice as long as the excerpt.)

    Russia unexpectedly poor at cyberwar, say European military heads, by The Straits Times

    "Among cybersecurity experts we were pretty sure that there would be a cyber Pearl Harbour based on past experience of Russian behaviour and capabilities," said General Karol Molenda, head of Poland's National Cyber Security Centre.

    But Ukraine was prepared and "withstood attacks from Russia", Gen Molenda told a meeting of the International Cybersecurity Forum (FIC) held in the northern France city of Lille.

    This showed, he added, that you can prepare for cyber conflict against Russia, which he said was "good at offensive capabilities but not so good at defence".

    He cited multiple cyber attacks which had hit the country, the work mainly of independent hackers.

    (The entire article is only twice as long as the excerpt.)

    4 votes
  7. skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine’s volunteer ‘Kraken’ unit takes the fight to the Russians (Washington Post) […]

    Ukraine’s volunteer ‘Kraken’ unit takes the fight to the Russians (Washington Post)

    The Kraken unit was formed by Azov Battalion veterans on the day Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, a military spokesman said. That makes the Krakens something like a kid brother to the older Azov unit, whose fighters achieved world renown status last month for their epic last stand inside Azovstal, a sprawling steel complex in the port city of Mariupol.

    […]

    Their commander is Konstantin V. Nemichev, a political and military figure in Kharkiv. The son of a schoolteacher and an electrician, Nemichev, 26, launched a political career in the right-wing National Corps party before he graduated from college, including an unsuccessful bid last year to become Kharkiv’s mayor. He drew heavily on the support of rowdy young soccer fans, many of whom now serve in his unit.

    Now that the Azov Battalion has been decimated, the Krakens stand to become Ukraine’s most famous band of volunteers — and arguably most controversial, like their Azov brethren. Critics said both have drawn fighters from ultranationalist and far-right groups, an allegation their soldiers reject as Russian propaganda. Although the commanders have acknowledged that far-right soldiers might be among their ranks, they said they are outnumbered by a more diverse group dedicated to defending Ukraine.

    The Kraken unit operates somewhat in a gray zone — a force that answers to the Defense Ministry but is not part of Ukraine’s armed forces. Soldiers in Ruska Lozova say the unit has about 1,800 soldiers. The military spokesman declined to say how many serve in the unit.

    The Kraken unit — which in recent weeks has helped take back villages north of Kharkiv — filled its ranks with “gym rats,” bouncers and “ultras,” the professional soccer fans who sometimes showed their love for Kharkiv’s Metalist team with riotous behavior. Many also hung out at the same sports bar, a place called the Wall, that was bombed, allegedly by Russian separatists, in 2014. Eleven patrons were injured.

    But their unit also draws veterans from the regular army, battle-tested paramilitary fighters from Donbas and other volunteers who range in age from 25 to 60.

    3 votes
  8. skybrian
    Link
    Russia strikes Kyiv for first time in weeks, battle rages in eastern Ukraine (Reuters) […] […]

    Russia strikes Kyiv for first time in weeks, battle rages in eastern Ukraine (Reuters)

    Dark smoke could be seen from many miles away after the attack on two outlying districts of Kyiv. Ukraine said the strike hit a rail car repair works; Moscow said it had destroyed tanks sent by Eastern European countries to Ukraine.

    […]

    Ukraine said Russia had carried out the strike using long-range air-launched missiles fired from heavy bombers as far away as the Caspian Sea - a weapon far more valuable than the tanks Russia claimed to have hit.

    […]

    After retreating steadily in the city [Sievierodonetsk] in recent days, Ukraine mounted a counter-attack there, which it says took the Russians by surprise. After recapturing a swathe of the city, Ukrainian forces were now in control of half of it and continuing to push the Russians back, said Serhiy Gaidai, governor of the Luhansk region that includes Sievierodonetsk.

    The claims could not be independently verified. Both sides say they have inflicted huge casualties in Sievierodonetsk, a battle that could determine which side carries the momentum into a protracted war of attrition in coming months.

    2 votes
  9. skybrian
    Link
    Top general details plan to train Ukrainians on rocket artillery (Washington Post) […]

    Top general details plan to train Ukrainians on rocket artillery (Washington Post)

    The U.S. military has devised a plan to train a platoon of Ukrainian soldiers at a time on how to use sophisticated multiple-launch rocket artillery, the Pentagon’s top general said Wednesday, raising the likelihood that more of the weapons could be sent to Ukraine.

    The plan is contingent on an initial group of Ukrainian soldiers showing proficiency on it, said Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The transfer of additional rocket artillery to Ukraine from existing U.S. Army or U.S. Marine Corps stocks also would require explicit approval from the Biden administration.

    […]

    The comments came after the Biden administration last month approved the transfer of four M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, commonly known as HIMARS, to Ukraine, and after Britain said it would send three M270 multiple-launch rocket systems, which perform a similar function. The British also will train a platoon at a time under the plan, Milley said, allowing Ukrainian forces to build up their rocket artillery.

    Ukrainian officials have said for days that they need dozens of rocket artillery systems to beat back Russian forces, who continue to make slow gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region after a full-scale invasion launched Feb. 24.

    2 votes
  10. [2]
    Bullmaestro
    Link
    So it's alleged that Putin has terminal cancer and has survived an assassination attempt. If these rumours are credible, this has put a whole new angle on why he went to war in the first place....

    So it's alleged that Putin has terminal cancer and has survived an assassination attempt. If these rumours are credible, this has put a whole new angle on why he went to war in the first place.

    I'm concerned that Ukraine is going to lose this conflict sooner or later. Russia already controls 20% of the country and their intensified offensives are actually starting to make real progress.

    1 vote
    1. skybrian
      Link Parent
      I'm no expert but to me it seems like quite slow progress. The Russians have been trying to take Severodonetsk for weeks now. If they do eventually succeed, it doesn't seem like it's going to be a...

      I'm no expert but to me it seems like quite slow progress. The Russians have been trying to take Severodonetsk for weeks now. If they do eventually succeed, it doesn't seem like it's going to be a big breakthrough, any more than taking Mariupol was?

      The military experts talk about offensives "culminating" when the attacking army can no longer take any more ground. It doesn't seem like Russians are going to be able to move forward much?

      Meanwhile, heavy losses on both sides.

      4 votes
  11. skybrian
    Link
    Oil Tankers Make Rare Mid-Atlantic Switch of Russian Crude Cargo - Bloomberg (Archive) [...]

    Oil Tankers Make Rare Mid-Atlantic Switch of Russian Crude Cargo - Bloomberg (Archive)

    The Aframax tanker Zhen I discharged its cargo into the supertanker Lauren II in waters 300 miles west of the island of Madeira, according to ship-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg. The transfer took place May 26 to 27.

    Moving cargoes onto larger vessels is not unusual, but what is far less common is the location where it happened. Most transfers take place in sheltered waters, where the risks of oil spills are greatly reduced. Russian cargoes have been transferred to bigger ships off Skaw in Denmark, in the western Mediterranean off the Spanish North African town of Ceuta, and even in the North Sea off Rotterdam. This is the first transfer seen on the high seas.

    [...]

    Self-sanctioning of Russian crude by some European refiners is already forcing greater volumes to be moved much longer distances to buyers, particularly in India. As European Union sanctions begin to bite deeper into flows to Europe, we can expect to see more Russian crude being shipped further, with the country seeking new markets for its oil. Mid-ocean cargo transfers may become more common, if buyers and sellers start to try masking the destinations of Russia’s oil exports.

    1 vote