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Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - June 16
This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.
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Week 16 of the war.
I have tried to follow from a more… removed position than before but sometimes I dig into one thing and reality comes back crashing down. Mariupol's been in the news quite a bit lately. I'd like to invite those with a strong stomach to browse the Telegram channel of Mariupol. It's non-official, but the people speaking in it are UA government officials: https://t.me/andriyshTime
Just be warned, some of the images in there are very graphic.
I'll share some of the more disturbing latest messages from the mayor.
(There is more, but please browse by yourself. I feel sick.)
Meanwhile, you need not go further than Twitter and find Dmitry Medvedev's account (
@MedvedevRussiaE
) to see how gross Russia is, exemplified. How did they ever get a seat at the table?They were invited. That's the cruel part.
Medvedev was hailed as the progressive president. He was supposed to put Russia on the map of technological capitals of the world.
When asked how did Medveded turn out this way today, Toomas Ilves, the former president of Estonia, responded: "He kept drinking".
U.S. probing how American electronics wound up in Russian military gear (WaPo)
I think we know why Russians are stealing washing machines now, huh.
Aside from your regular looting, that is.
Russia frees captive medic who filmed Mariupol’s horror (AP)
And for more info on the videos she gave to AP, see their previous article about it:
Captive medic’s bodycam shows firsthand horror of Mariupol
No nukes? Ukraine-Russian war will shape world’s arsenals
Macron, Scholz and Draghi have arrived in Kyiv (Reuters)
I wonder what comes of it.
Folks in my feeds gave flak to Macron for talking to Putin still, and to Scholz for bullshitting Ukraine about the promised and underdelivered military equipment. Haven't even heard Draghi's name between those two.
I'm all for Ukraine talking with European politicians, but I'm not sure these political stunts are the way to go. The criticisms levied again these heads of state are clear and actionable. Short of seeing Zelensky face to face to tell him "We're working on it, it will be here shortly" as a form of extreme reassurance, I'm not sure what conversations could happen in Kyiv that would make any difference.
Probably lots that we'll not hear much about, e.g. regarding possible future arms shipments. Also, as reported, lots of conversations about EU membership. The leaders of the three largest economies of the EU just expressed their support for the UA application into EU. That is a big deal. As far as I can tell, this is the main result of this visit. The EU commission will make their recommendation for UA's case today. This visit was a big deal in that it, insofar as it was even necessary, forces the hand of the commission.
As for Macron and Scholz still talking to Putin; I'm not sure about Macron, but Scholz has made clear that he doesn't consider peace where Ukraine cedes territory to be acceptable. It's fair if you think calling Putin with those expectations and expecting acceptable peace to pop out is a waste of time. But it's also not that much time in the grand scheme of things and might lay the groundwork for future peace talks that arrive at acceptable terms, you never know. The only way we get an acceptable peace here is if Russia agrees to it. If Russia doesn't agree even after being thrown out of Ukraine, the only way out is through Moscow, which... well, call it Operation Unthinkable. It's neither acceptable nor realistic.
As for overpromised and underdelivered military equipment by Germany, I beg to differ. German arms companies have overpromised, but the government has been very careful not to. They've gotten shit for shooting down unrealistic proposals by industry. Also, some cancellations of foreign deliveries of german-made equipment have been misattributed to German export controls. Doesn't mean I'm happy with what Germany is sending, but that's mostly a result of what we can send (atrociously inefficient and criminally underbudgeted defense spending by Merkel's govts) and the speed at which we do send what we can (you can blame the current govt for that, yes.).
As, @vektor mentioned there still are things to be gained from these sorts of face to face meetings, even if they are mostly just symbolic. But even pure symbolism is still a powerful thing, and the effects of rejecting even symbolic visits are also seriously worth considering too. Zelenksyy rejecting a meeting from of a European head of state (or their representatives) looks terrible for both sides unless there is very legitimate grounds to do so, since it’s insulting to that politician, their country, and so potentially reduces overall support for Ukraine there, leading to more division when unity and cooperation is what’s needed most. Just look what happened when Zelenskyy rejected Steinmeier‘s visit a few months ago, which was still a bit of a blunder since it pissed off a lot of Germans, even ones who fully supported Ukraine and understood that Kyiv had cause to dislike him due to his previous support of Nord Stream 2.
A war that threatens Europe is not a good time to find out courtesy pageants are more important than on-the-ground support.
It was a German pastor who versed "Then they came for the Jews", so I can't begin to concern myself with how upset the Germans are about it. Ukraine needs all the fucking support it can get, because people are dying.
These sorts of talks potentially lead to more on-the-ground support and faster materiel deliveries, and rejecting them potentially leads to less. So I really don’t understand your point here, or how the “first they came for” reference is relevant to this particular issue.
I absolutely agree. But one of the ways they can get more of that support is by hosting other world leaders and politicians, and showing them the effects of the war, first-hand. That then allows those politicians to see how serious the situation is with their own eyes, how desperate the need is, and meet the people their aid would be assisting, so they can then relate all that and their experiences in Ukraine to their fellow politicians, and constituents.
P.s. These visits also keep Ukraine in the news, which is another major benefit, especially given the stalemate situation that Ukraine has currently found itself in. And people losing interest in this war is the last thing Ukraine needs.
See, I don't believe you. I think it's very clear what my point is. It's why I mentioned pastor Niemöller.
Politicking for the sake of one's image is not helping. You're a head of a Western European state: you have access to some top-notch military intelligence by default. If that isn't enough for you to figure out that shit is on fire and your help, as an economic superior with a stake in the balance of the region, is very much required, you done fucked up.
Equally, if as a head of state you can't do much to rally your own people to support the fight for democracy through which you were elected, there are not enough genuis-grade photographs of handshaking and standing confidently in suits to do anything. If this is the only thing keeping Ukraine in the news, y'all might as well shut up and do nothing, 'cause in that case, Ukraine is done before it's able to shed its last breath.
So let me make my point abundantly clear this time:
What I think these three, and more to their side, need to do is affix their scrotums back to their nethers and make sure the flow of support never stops as long as they're in office. Talking about a sovereign Ukraine is not enough right now, even to the president of it. The attitude of taking things slow and careful needs to die if a lot of innocent and brilliant Ukrainians are to live.
Look, I could understand if you were to say "the battle for Ukrainian morale is more important than that for German hearts and minds, so fuck what the germans think". But you seem to be making the point that the battle for western hearts and minds is completely unimportant, and if you think it's a lost cause we might as well go home.
It's not lost, not even close. But this will be a very long-term news item. How sick are you of covid news right now? That's western constituents in 2 years. We need to be ready for this war to go that long and longer, and keep support up. And everything that keeps this war in the news helps. We (I'm kinda including @cfabbro here) don't make the media effect of this out to be monumental, but nothing the west can do short of nuclear-armed Ukrainian-flagged B-2 bombers is monumental. It's a lot of small things coming together, and yes, one of these small things, annoyingly, is photographs of politicians standing confidently in suits. And no, this isn't the only thing keeping Ukraine in the news. But it's another small thing that helps.
If you think these three do nothing but talk, I'd urge you to look into Russian gas deliveries into Germany. They're dropping to fuck all right now, right during this visit. I'd say that looks like Putin is not very happy with what we're doing here. (I can't speak for Italy and France as I'm not nearly as clued in there)
All of which to say: I don't think it's fair at all to dismiss visits like these as "just talking". And if you reject small change because you demand big change, I don't think that's a good policy.
And I don’t believe that you honestly think these visits or the news articles about them are totally counterproductive for Ukraine, and don’t help them in any way. So how about we both just walk away before either of us says something we will regret. Don’t expect another reply from me.
Business Insider video: Over 20 Million Tons Of Grain Are Stuck In Ukraine. What Does That Mean For The World?
Letters written, tanks in position as battle for Lysychansk looms (Washington Post)
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