Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - July 7

"Responding to Boris Johnson's resignation, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says Britain is "full square" behind Ukraine and the country knows it."
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1545054155294724104

Checking in from Germany, because I haven't reported on the local happenings in a while. I'll cite german sources, you can use deepl if you want to read the details. I can cross-check its translations upon request.

Zelensky fires UA ambassador to germany Melnyk - he's been a very vocal critic of the german government, courting conservative news outlets with a less-than-stellar reputation. His behavior has been undiplomatic at times. Here's my take on some of that from April However, the actual cause seems to be that he's had a unusual opinion of Stepan Bandera, including some historical revisionism and support for Bandera in there.

The probably much bigger item in German news is the looming energy crisis. I've given a few opinions on the topic (The battle for german hearts and minds is important imo, also Russia isn't too happy with us, having just cut gas deliveries.) (Quick history of the last few decades of german energy policy as it relates to fossils vs renewables vs nuclear) But that's all old news. The more recent development is that since Russia has cut their gas deliveries down, we're looking at the very real possibility of not having enough gas for the winter. Germany's manufacturing industry, firstly, is highly reliant on gas. Both the chemical and metalworking branches are very vulnerable there. Then, lots of domestic heating is done using gas furnaces. Thirdly, of course, gas fueled power plants. The result is that if this gets bad, it gets real bad. The government has already announced that in case of shortfalls, industry are the first to be cut off. Which of course averts the humanitarian crisis, but gets us a very thorough economic one instead. Fuck, I really don't want to be Habeck right now, having to manage this mess. Meanwhile he's saying we have to prepare for the worst. Habeck calls it a "stress test the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time". In the meantime, Scholz announced we're firing up additional coal plants to save gas, while emphasizing the current unprecedented pace at shifting from fossils to renewables.

Interesting, maybe in particular for the Canadians here: There's a turbine component of the Nord Stream I pipeline that was undergoing maintenance in Canada - Canada was then unwilling to give it back to Russia, what with the now imposed sanctions. The current state of affairs seems to be that Canada is willing to give it to Germany instead, and we'll have to get our own hands dirty. Fair enough. Important info: Russia says it's fulfilling all contractual obligations, and it's not using gas deliveries to pressure Germany. The reduced deliveries are due to supposed technical issues.

Edit: Nord Stream 1 is now completely offline for routine maintenance. There's a general concern going about that this could be a welcome excuse to completely stop gas deliveries. Basically, if Russia wanted to stop deliveries while maintaining plausible deniability for as long as possible, artificially extending maintenance is the way to go.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 7 (Institute for the Study of War)

Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain their combat capabilities, confirming ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have initiated an operational pause.[1] Konashenkov did not specify the intended length of Russian forces’ operational pause. As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces have not ceased active hostilities during this operational pause and are unlikely to do so.[2] Russian forces still conducted limited ground offensives and air, artillery, and missile strikes across all axes on July 7.[3] Russian forces will likely continue to confine themselves to small-scale offensive actions as they rebuild forces and set conditions for a more significant offensive in the coming weeks or months.

[...]

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 8

When the Russian military command has determined that it has adequately prepared for a renewed major offensive operation, it will likely resume larger-scale ground offensives with more troops and a greater determination than it is currently showing. The transition out of the operational pause may be gradual and difficult to discern at once, just as the transition into it appeared gradual. Skillful campaign design aims to achieve precisely such an effect in order to persuade the enemy that no pause is contemplated or underway, or that it will be too short to be of benefit to the enemy, and thereby convince the enemy that it does not have the opportunity to seize the initiative and go over to a counter-offensive of its own. Russian campaign design, inadequate as it has generally been, is nevertheless good enough to manifest this basic principle of operational art.

White House says Iran is preparing to supply Russia with weapons-capable drones
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/iran-russia-weapons-capable-drones/index.html

Ukraine's allies, including Lithuania and Poland, have begun crowdfunding campaigns to purchase new Bayraktar drones for the Ukrainian military, and the US has provided Ukraine with small, kamikaze drones called Switchblades. The US has also been weighing whether to provide Ukraine with larger drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles.

But Russia, the US now believes, has apparently turned to Iran to help replenish its drone stockpiles. It is unclear how sophisticated or effective those drones will be, however.

…

Newly declassified US intelligence indicates that Iran is expected to supply Russia with "hundreds" of drones -- including weapons-capable drones -- for use in the war in Ukraine, with Iran preparing to begin training Russian forces on how to operate them as early as late July, according to White House officials.

Russians 'in Panic Mode' Over Strikes by U.S.-Supplied HIMARS: Ukraine

Dozens of Russian ammunition and fuel depots have been destroyed in recent weeks. The HIMARS have been credited with several such strikes, including the enormous explosion in Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast this week, Ukrainian officials say.

Multiple Russian commanders are reported to have been killed in HIMARS attacks in the past week, according to the Ukrainians.

Ukraine now has eight HIMARS, with the U.S. promising another four in short order. Haidai said the defenders will need scores more to reclaim the land lost to Russian occupation.

[...]

Pro-Russian military Telegram channels have been abuzz with talk of the HIMARS in recent days. Users—including Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence official who commanded pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine in 2014—have lamented Russia's apparent inability to stop the weapons, despite the presence of advanced anti-aircraft systems.

Haidai said the sensitive Russian targets are now near defenseless. "All these S-300s and other missile defense systems have been completely powerless in the face of our newly acquired artillery, unable to prevent multiple strikes on ammunition depots and command centers," he said.

Here's a Twitter thread (unrolled) by a retired Australian general putting this into context:

Despite this, we must not cast the #HIMARS as the wonder weapon that will change the tide of the war. There has been a tendency since the first Industrial Revolution to look for the single technological wonder that will win wars. This is a mirage.

[...]

Military forces are complex entities that need many different capabilities layered in function, range, time & impact, integrated by humans. #HIMARS is just one layer – albeit a vital one – in the overall national and military capacity that #Ukraine needs to win this war.

Inside the Ukrainian resistance (Unherd)

It would be unfair, however, to say the soldiers are just there to drink and beat people up; they also want to make money. Checkpoints are not just places of violence and intimidation, but of extortion as well. An informal tariff — based around different classes of vehicle — has come into effect. To get your car through without the endless queuing will cost $500 or more. A bus costs $2,000, a truck $20,000. Sometimes cars are allowed to leave without paying, and every so often the Russians shell them with BM-21 Grads — just to teach them a lesson for going back into Ukraine.

The Russians have also appropriated a network of petrol stations previously owned by OKKO and Shell. Prices there are now in roubles, which is the only currency they will accept. They’ve even manually set an exchange rate at 1 hryvnia to 1.5 roubles (the normal exchange rate is above 2). All this has come by the order of former Rada Deputy and ex-mayor of Kherson Volodymyr Saldo, who immediately supported Russian occupiers when they arrived and has become the head of the Kherson administration.

The Russians are trying to control all aspects of life, too. If you want to receive your salary into a bank account, you need to open an account in the bank the Russians have set up in the former Raiffeisen Bank building. “I saw huge lines of people there,” says one resident. “The catch, though, is that if you want the account, you also have to get a Russian passport, which people don’t want.”

[...]

All of this combines to diminish pro-Russian feelings across the region. From the first days of the occupation, protestors hurled insults, not flowers, at incoming Russian troops. Now the resistance has morphed into two distinct strands. The first is violent; the second is what they call the “fight for the symbolic environment”. This centres on placing pro-Ukrainian graffiti and leaflets throughout key areas and destroying pro-Russian flags and symbols. In both camps, of course, there is the social ostracisation of collaborators.

[...]

It’s hard to assess just how widespread violent resistance is. Most of the cases remain unpublicised because the Russians don’t want to appear weak or vulnerable and the partisans don’t want to jeopardise their security. In many small towns, there are a lot of cases of youths with knives stabbing drunken soldiers. No one says anything because it’s bad both for the Russians and for the kids.

Canada announces new Russia sanctions targeting disinformation (CBC)

Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly announced new sanctions against Russian agents and organizations Friday, with a focus on those involved in Russian disinformation efforts.

Canada is imposing sanctions on 29 agents and 15 entities owned or controlled by the Russian government involved in spreading Russian propaganda with respect to the war in Ukraine, Global Affairs said in a news release.

Among those sanctioned is Sumbatovich Gasparyan, the head of Russian-funded broadcaster RT's international department.

The government also announced that the import of certain gold products from Russia is now prohibited.

The products including unwrought gold, semi-manufactured gold, gold powder, monetary gold and jewelry made of gold.

The release highlighted other efforts from the Canadian government to counter Kremlin propaganda, including a website focused on countering false claims the Russians has made with respect to the war in Ukraine.

"Canada will continue to use this platform to shed light on how the Russian regime is using lies to justify its illegal, unprovoked and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine," the news release said.

Big Think | How Russia’s war in Ukraine is birthing a new global order | Ian Bremmer
https://youtu.be/wqqUZB4XnLo