10 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - August 18

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

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4 comments

  1. [3]
    skybrian
    Link
    U.S. Missiles Sent to Ukraine Aren’t Easily Replaced, Panel Tells Senate (USNI News)

    U.S. Missiles Sent to Ukraine Aren’t Easily Replaced, Panel Tells Senate (USNI News)

    Testifying before the Senate Armed Service Committee, Ellen Lord, who served as the Defense Department’s top acquisition official, said Stingers cannot be replaced “within the next couple of years” because its production line has been shut down. Even simple items, such as diodes, used to regulate voltage for these systems could be difficult to obtain.

    “Even with Javelin, we are probably five years” away from replenishing that stock despite its manufacturing line remaining open, she added.

    David Berteau, chief executive officer of the Professional Services Council, said, “we have yet to see a single contract in place” for the replacement of systems going to Ukraine following Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. Noting the one-third depletion of Stingers and Javelins, he said, “we’re behind.”

    2 votes
    1. [2]
      vektor
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Defense economics 101. Peacetime production is abysmally low for most things. Rightfully so, as it's the economical option. Having a Stinger production line ready means either having to use it...

      Defense economics 101. Peacetime production is abysmally low for most things. Rightfully so, as it's the economical option. Having a Stinger production line ready means either having to use it (and piss money away on missiles you don't need) or not use it (and piss money away on a production line you don't need).

      For the US at least, there's not really an acute problem here: Their stockpiles are deep. They can stomach giving a third of their Stingers away, because it really is the last line of a very deep defense. From cruise missiles against air bases, to F-22s, to Patriot missiles, there's a lot of ways the US military would rather protect their troops from air threats than stingers, and it still has astronomic amounts of those too.

      Personally, I think what we're seeing here is mostly a topic for the experts: Yes, they need to act on this news. Refill stockpiles, ensure production lines are available, maybe replace aging systems with new ones.

      P.S.: I could've sworn I've heard this headline or something like it before. Turns out, it's from late April and I didn't notice. Some of the details about "current events" in the article kinda give it away too.

      Edit: Actually, let me elaborate on the defense economics side a bit more. Remember all these Abrams tanks that the army doesn't want but congress orders anyway? Turns out, that's not exclusively corruption and the MIC being the MIC. The reason this makes sense is to keep the production line alive. You stop ordering them, the manufacturer closes up shop. What happens next is really bad in case you need more tanks: Very quickly both the infrastructure (physical and logistic) and the expertise will evaporate. America couldn't build a Saturn V rocket nowadays because that expertise is long gone. If congress stops ordering tanks, the US will not be able to sell tanks to allies, will not be able to meaningfully upgrade their fleet, maintenance will be more difficult and replacements will be impossible. I imagine a tank factory is relatively specialized and you can't really repurpose that workforce or facility all too well. Compare a missile production line: There's plenty of different missiles the US operates and I can easily see that the Stinger production line produces some other kind of missile nowadays. I suppose what I'm getting at is that there's a reason some production lines will be kept alive by pissing money away, while others will be abandoned.

      5 votes
      1. skybrian
        Link Parent
        Yeah, it seems like some kind of dual-use factory would make sense as a way of being prepared? Do a short production run every now and then to make sure it still can be done, and most of the time,...

        Yeah, it seems like some kind of dual-use factory would make sense as a way of being prepared? Do a short production run every now and then to make sure it still can be done, and most of the time, make something else.

        I didn't notice the date on the article either. I wonder how many more missiles they've used by now?

        1 vote