13 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - October 6

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

30 comments

  1. [3]
    cmccabe
    Link
    I have seen a number of Tweet-reports saying that the surrender hotline Ukraine has set up is so busy that Russian soldiers are complaining that they can’t get through. Anybody seen reliable...

    I have seen a number of Tweet-reports saying that the surrender hotline Ukraine has set up is so busy that Russian soldiers are complaining that they can’t get through. Anybody seen reliable sources on this? Or any general statistics on volume of surrenders?

    In related news, there have been reports that Ukraine is no longer short of ammunition because of how much has been left behind by rapidly fleeing Russian troops.

    Obviously, even assuming these reports are true, it’s not yet time to get hopes up that the war is coming to an end. But the wind currently appears to be at Ukraine’s back.

    5 votes
    1. [2]
      cfabbro
      Link Parent
      Related: Ukraine’s New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons (WSJ)

      there have been reports that Ukraine is no longer short of ammunition because of how much has been left behind by rapidly fleeing Russian troops

      Related:

      Ukraine’s New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons (WSJ)

      Captured and abandoned Russian tanks, howitzers and fighting vehicles—quickly scrubbed of their Z tactical markers and repainted with Ukrainian crosses—are being turned against their former owners as Ukraine’s military advances in the eastern part of the country.

      Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region a month ago ended up putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Kyiv’s hands, military officials say, as the Russian army left behind its heavy weapons and warehouses of supplies in a disorganized retreat.

      Some Russian pieces of equipment were ready for immediate use, while others are being repaired to return to the front. Tanks, vehicles and guns too damaged to salvage are being cannibalized for spare parts. Crucially, Russia has also left behind large quantities of Soviet-standard artillery shells that had nearly run out in Ukraine.

      This haul is helping power Ukrainian forces as they retake parts of the eastern Donetsk region, including the town of Lyman, and push further east into nearby Luhansk. Kyiv has regained more than 4,000 square miles of land in the east over the past month, in addition to advances in the south.

      One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.

      “We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

      7 votes
      1. cfabbro
        Link Parent
        Also related: UK intelligence: More than half of Ukraine's tank fleet consists of captured Russian vehicles (Kyiv Independent)

        Also related:

        UK intelligence: More than half of Ukraine's tank fleet consists of captured Russian vehicles (Kyiv Independent)

        Since Feb. 24, Ukraine's Armed Forces have captured at least 440 Russian main battle tanks and 650 other armored vehicles, which make up "over half of Ukraine's currently fielded tank fleet," the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Oct. 7.

        "The failure of Russian crews to destroy intact equipment before withdrawing or surrendering highlights their poor state of training and low levels of battle discipline," reads the report.

        According to the U.K Defense Ministry, as "increasingly demoralized" Russian troops are under "severe strain" in several areas, Russia will likely keep losing its heavy weaponry.

        3 votes
  2. [2]
    cfabbro
    Link
    Missiles strike Ukraine cities with central Kyiv hit (BBC Live Reporting page with many updates, videos, photos, and related news) Some of the most pertinent info:

    Missiles strike Ukraine cities with central Kyiv hit
    (BBC Live Reporting page with many updates, videos, photos, and related news)

    Some of the most pertinent info:

    Summary

    • Russia has carried out missile strikes on cities across Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv, in what appears to be the most widespread set of attacks since the early weeks of the war
    • Missiles have hit central Kyiv, as the capital is targeted for the first time in months - police say 10 people have been killed across the country
    • Ukraine's air force spokesman says Russia has fired 83 missiles at targets in Ukraine, with many of them shot down
    • Vladimir Putin confirms the strikes, saying further "terrorism" against Russia will be met with a similar response
    • He is referring to a large explosion on Saturday that badly damaged the only bridge linking Russia with occupied Crimea - a key route for military supplies for the war
    • Kyiv has not acknowledged any role but Moscow has blamed its intelligence services
    • Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Zelensky says the G7 is to hold an emergency meeting and that he will deliver an address

    Sites of reported missile strikes across Ukraine

    5 votes
    1. vektor
      Link Parent
      I'd have to check again, but the translation I saw of this suggested he meant the response will be "similar to the terrorism committed by Ukraine against Russia", so he's pretty much said the...

      Vladimir Putin confirms the strikes, saying further "terrorism" against Russia will be met with a similar response

      I'd have to check again, but the translation I saw of this suggested he meant the response will be "similar to the terrorism committed by Ukraine against Russia", so he's pretty much said the quiet part out loud and admitted they're basically responding to what he calls terrorism with their own terrorism.

      Again: That's easily messed up nuance of the details of the translation here. I wouldn't really trust any non-russian source on this to get this right, unless they explicitly call out this interpretation. Anyone know Russian and can track the original quote down?

      2 votes
  3. skybrian
    Link
    Kremlin, shifting blame for war failures, axes military commanders (Washington Post) [...]

    Kremlin, shifting blame for war failures, axes military commanders (Washington Post)

    Far from bestowing glory on Russia’s military brass, the war in Ukraine is proving toxic for top commanders, with at least eight generals fired, reassigned or otherwise sidelined [...] Western governments have said that at least 10 others were killed in battle [...]

    [...]

    After a long string of failures and few significant victories, the knives now seem to be out for Russian generals, amid criticism from prominent Russian military correspondents, state television propagandists and even members of the normally obedient parliament.

    Two Russian lawmakers — chairman of the defense committee Andrey Kartapolov and anti-corruption committee member Vasily Piskarev — are holding closed-door meetings in the lower house of the parliament, the State Duma, to review the “situation with the supply of the Russian army.”

    4 votes
  4. [9]
    asterisk
    Link
    Itʼs a good morning! Why? Because Crimean Bridge is on fire

    Itʼs a good morning! Why? Because Crimean Bridge is on fire

    3 votes
    1. [2]
      cmccabe
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Ukraine’s Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council posted this on his Facebook account (I’m posting from Reddit because I’m not Facebook savvy):...

      Ukraine’s Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council posted this on his Facebook account (I’m posting from Reddit because I’m not Facebook savvy):
      https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xymg81/secretary_of_the_national_defense_danylov_posted/

      Why is Marylin Monroe in the video? Oct 7 was Vladimir Putin’s birthday.

      Edit: actually here’s a Twitter link, if you prefer: https://twitter.com/OleksiyDanilov/status/1578636142055870464

      3 votes
      1. asterisk
        Link Parent
        I dunno, maybe Danilov likes her.

        Why is Marylin Monroe in the video?

        I dunno, maybe Danilov likes her.

    2. [6]
      cfabbro
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Related articles with a few more details and some speculation: BBC The Guardian

      Related articles with a few more details and some speculation:

      BBC

      "Today at 06:07 on the road part of the Crimean bridge from the side of the Taman Peninsula, a truck was blown up, which caused the ignition of seven fuel tanks of a railway train heading towards the Crimean peninsula," Russian state agency RIA Novosti quotes the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC) as saying.

      An adviser to the head of Crimea, quoted by RIA Novosti, said work was under way to extinguish the fire.

      One explosives expert told the BBC said the fire was probably not caused by a missile.

      "The lack of obvious blast / fragmentation damage on the road surface suggests that an air-delivered weapon was not used," he said

      He said it was possible that "a well-planned attack from below may have been the cause".

      The Guardian

      The explosion, which witnesses said could be heard kilometres away, took place before 6am on Saturday while a train was crossing the bridge.

      It was not immediately clear what caused it, however Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, appeared to suggest Kyiv’s responsibility, tweeting: “Crimea, the bridge, the beginning. Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything belonging to the Russian occupation must be expelled.”

      Damage to the road section of the bridge showed the carriageway appeared to have been cleanly severed with no obvious sign of a missile strike in the first images to emerge, leading some to suggest the attack on the bridge might have been a spectacular act of of sabotage.

      Video footage being shared on Russian Telegram channels appeared to show a truck at the centre of the explosion but it was not clear whether the truck itself exploded or was caught in the blast.

      As in previous attacks in Crimea, official Russian sources were vague about the cause of the blast with the news service Tass saying a fuel tanker was involved. “According to preliminary data, a fuel tank [railroad] car has been on fire at one of the sections of the Crimean bridge, shipping arches aren’t damaged, said Oleg Kryuchkov, an adviser to the Russian occupation head of the Crimea.

      Another Moscow-appointed official said: “A cistern carriage is burning with fuel on one of the bridge sections. Shipping arches aren’t affected. Too early to talk about reasons and consequences. Work is under way to put out the fire.”

      However, video footage taken from the road span appeared to show fires burning fiercely in several railway trucks along the length of the train, with the train stationary on the bridge.

      Purported video footage from the moment of the explosion also seemed to strongly suggest a deliberate attack with high explosives.

      Commenting on the attack in a thread on Twitter, analysts and retired Australian general Mick Ryan said: “First dropping a bridge span like this would take a lot of ‘bang’ (explosives) and good demolition design. As a sapper, we plan these kind of things all the time. The hardest bridges to drop are reinforced concrete like this.

      “The amount of explosive required would be more than a few SF personnel could carry. A few trucks, or missiles / bombs would do the trick, if aimed at the right points of the bridge span.

      “Either way, it presents the Russians with a significant problem. It doesn’t stop resupply to Crimea (there are boats and the route through Melitopol), but it makes holding Melitopol even more important for the Russians.”

      2 votes
      1. [5]
        Adys
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Via Twitter Oleksiy Sorokin (Twitter) A truck bombing makes sense though it gives me chills that, if it was the truck, this is essentially a suicide bombing. A really well coordinated one. War is...

        Russian Investigative Committee says three people died in Crimea bridge explosion - the truck driver and a couple in the car which was overtaking the truck. The truck driver is registered in Krasnodar Territory. His apartment is being searched. Source: RIA

        Via Twitter

        Russian officials say a truck packed with explosives, the Russian owner already identified, detonated on the bridge near tanker train which caused a chain reaction.
        As of now, Ukraine didn’t provide an official response. Only memes.

        Oleksiy Sorokin (Twitter)

        A truck bombing makes sense though it gives me chills that, if it was the truck, this is essentially a suicide bombing. A really well coordinated one. War is a hell of a thing.

        4 votes
        1. [3]
          cfabbro
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          I'm not a demolition experts, so my opinion is basically just pure speculation... but I don't know if I buy the truck bomb explanation, and instead think the explosives expert interviewed by the...

          I'm not a demolition experts, so my opinion is basically just pure speculation... but I don't know if I buy the truck bomb explanation, and instead think the explosives expert interviewed by the BBC is correct in saying an attack from underneath the bridge platform may have caused it. The truck was probably just at the wrong place at the wrong time, and the train was just a target of opportunity.

          The reason I think that is If you look at the close up photo of the collapsed sections, you can clearly see that the tarmac is only superficially fire damaged, but the support structures under them look to have significantly more damage done to them.

          This video, allegedly from the moment of the explosion, also makes it look to me like the explosion initially happens in front of the truck, which is driving full speed ahead at the time. And if you were going to set off a bomb in your own truck you would likely be stationary on a spot you knew where it could do the most damage... not set it off while still barreling down the bridge at full speed. There is also a bunch of glowing particles raining down after the explosion, which reminds me of the magnesium rain often seen after setting off thermite.

          1. [2]
            vektor
            Link Parent
            I'm not demolitions expert either, but I think if they had access to the lower parts of the bridge, the rail bridge wouldn't have those tall, skinny columns anymore. I'm not sure how much energy...

            I'm not demolitions expert either, but I think if they had access to the lower parts of the bridge, the rail bridge wouldn't have those tall, skinny columns anymore. I'm not sure how much energy it takes to knock one of those out, but surely less than the forces we've seen at work here.

            1. cfabbro
              (edited )
              Link Parent
              Those "tall, skinny columns" are reinforced concrete, and likely would have required a significant amount of explosives to even moderately damage the surface of, let alone take out completely. As...

              Those "tall, skinny columns" are reinforced concrete, and likely would have required a significant amount of explosives to even moderately damage the surface of, let alone take out completely. As the other expert interviewed by The Guardian said, reinforced concrete bridges are the hardest for sappers to take down, unless they attack the "right points of the bridge span" (e.g. the weaker connection points between the support pillars and the platforms, or the midpoint of the spans themselves). So if it was just a small SF team on a boat that set some charges, the weak points of the rail bridge would have been almost impossible to get to, especially undetected, given how high it is. However, unlike the rail bridge, the passenger side is significantly lower, within easy reach of the water, and it would have been far easier to get to the weak points.

              1 vote
        2. skybrian
          Link Parent
          I wonder if maybe the truck driver didn't know what was in back and it was set off remotely. Is that a thing?

          I wonder if maybe the truck driver didn't know what was in back and it was set off remotely. Is that a thing?

  5. [4]
    cmccabe
    Link
    Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons...

    Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons
    https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10

    And in today’s episode of “Whose Side Are You On Anyway?”…

    3 votes
    1. [3]
      arghdos
      Link Parent
      You may know better than I, but I would assume Starlink in Ukraine was about as effective as Starlink in Iran, which is to say, not very.

      You may know better than I, but I would assume Starlink in Ukraine was about as effective as Starlink in Iran, which is to say, not very.

      1. cmccabe
        Link Parent
        I will try to do a better job of finding articles focused on the value of Starlink to Ukraine’s military, but until then I’ll just say that have seen many reports that it has been extremely...

        I will try to do a better job of finding articles focused on the value of Starlink to Ukraine’s military, but until then I’ll just say that have seen many reports that it has been extremely valuable to the military.

        Here’s one summary:

        The United States, European Union and other NATO countries have donated billions of dollars in military equipment to Ukraine since the war began in late February. But Musk’s Starlink — based on a cluster of table-sized satellites flying as low as 130 miles above Ukraine and beaming down high-speed internet access — has become an unexpected lifeline to the country, both on the battlefield and in the war for public opinion.

        Ukrainian drones have relied on Starlink to drop bombs on Russian forward positions. People in besieged cities near the Russian border have stayed in touch with loved ones via the encrypted satellites. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the country’s president, has regularly updated his millions of social media followers on the back of Musk’s network, as well as holding Zoom calls with global politicians from U.S. President Joe Biden to French leader Emmanuel Macron.

        The Ukrainian troops who held out in the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol were able to maintain contact with their commanders and even Zelenskyy — and conduct live video interviews with journalists — because they had a Starlink system in the besieged factory.

        All told, Starlink — and Ukraine’s use of the satellite network, both for its military and civilians — has thwarted Russia’s efforts to cut the Eastern European country off from the outside world, giving Kyiv a much-needed victory against Moscow in a conflict that shows no sign of ending.

        “The strategic impact is, it totally destroyed [Vladimir] Putin’s information campaign,” said Brig. Gen. Steve Butow, director of the space portfolio at the Defense Innovation Unit, the Pentagon’s Silicon Valley tech outpost. “He never, to this day, has been able to silence Zelenskyy.”

        4 votes
      2. skybrian
        Link Parent
        I've read news reports of Ukraine military using it. Most recently: How Ukrainians, targeting by drone, attacked Russian artillery in Kherson (Washington Post)

        I've read news reports of Ukraine military using it. Most recently:

        How Ukrainians, targeting by drone, attacked Russian artillery in Kherson (Washington Post)

        With the help of a Starlink satellite internet system, they worked from 8 a.m. until sunset. Around 2:45 p.m., they launched the drone for its penultimate flight of the day. Within minutes, it spotted smoke on the horizon, near where they identified the enemy artillery battery for the 128th brigade.

        3 votes
  6. [4]
    skybrian
    Link
    A more strategic Russian retreat signals long fight ahead in Kherson (Washington Post) Based on a visit to the front lines in Kherson: [...]

    A more strategic Russian retreat signals long fight ahead in Kherson (Washington Post)

    Based on a visit to the front lines in Kherson:

    Kyiv’s military here has pushed the Russians back by dozens of miles in some spots after struggling to advance for months. But after Ukraine’s remarkably successful counteroffensive in the northeast Kharkiv region, soldiers stationed near the southern front cautioned that the situation remains tense. Kherson is too important, politically and militarily, for the Russians to retreat as messily as in Kharkiv, they said.

    “This is not Kharkiv,” Kostenko said. “There, they left all of their ammunition and vehicles and fled. Here, we don’t even have many trophies. They just retreated from the fight, took everything with them to their new position and are digging in anew.”

    [...]

    The slice of occupied land is connected to the rest of Russian-controlled territory by two main crossings over the Dnieper — the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson, which is badly damaged, and the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, which is about 45 miles to the east and remains passable.

    Russian forces risk getting cut off in Kherson — surrounded by Ukrainian forces on three sides and the river on the fourth — if the Ukrainians manage to advance close enough to the river to make it impassable.

    “If the Ukrainian military is able to get artillery within range of the main bridges and river crossings, then the Russian position in general may become untenable,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at Virginia-based research group CNA.

    2 votes
    1. [3]
      vektor
      Link Parent
      TBF, there's not really a way to make the dam impassable using artillery. At least not a way that Ukraine would be willing to take in this case. If my map-reading skills and knowledge about civil...

      “If the Ukrainian military is able to get artillery within range of the main bridges and river crossings, then the Russian position in general may become untenable,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at Virginia-based research group CNA.

      TBF, there's not really a way to make the dam impassable using artillery. At least not a way that Ukraine would be willing to take in this case. If my map-reading skills and knowledge about civil engineering aren't horseshit, then bombarding the dam will either leave it still passable or at risk of completely collapsing. Complete collapse would flood one of Ukraine's bigger cities with a massive amount of water. It would also drain the entire reservoir from Kakhovka to Zaporizhzhia. Environmental and humanitarian disaster aside, it would change the face of the battlefield to such a degree that I'd doubt the currently winning side would want to risk that at all. Suddenly that area between the Donbas and Kherson where there's no fighting going on is the most inhospitable warzone you can imagine.

      Having said that, Ukraine is currently advancing along the lake from the north, so actually taking the dam isn't unreasonable in the near term. Then Russia's situation on the west bank is getting seriously threatened; all it takes is a few lucky HIMARS strikes on the bridge, and they'll be swimming back home. This time leaving their equipment behind.

      4 votes
      1. [2]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        I don’t know what they meant, but I’m wondering if nearby artillery would make the approach very dangerous to cross, rather than taking out the dam entirely?

        I don’t know what they meant, but I’m wondering if nearby artillery would make the approach very dangerous to cross, rather than taking out the dam entirely?

        1. vektor
          Link Parent
          Ohh, you can absolutely make it miserable to cross: They don't really have many options of where to go, so put a few drones in the air and pepper anything that moves with artillery, absolutely....

          Ohh, you can absolutely make it miserable to cross: They don't really have many options of where to go, so put a few drones in the air and pepper anything that moves with artillery, absolutely. But that's still a far cry from the complete denial that blowing up a bridge would be.

          The way I see this going is Ukraine will probably want to secure both sides of the dam before they completely clear the west bank. Once the river is the dividing line between Russian and Ukrainian forces, forcing a crossing is going to be.... ahh, we've seen how well that works. If Ukraine could secure a bridgehead on the east bank before Russia knows what's up, that's a giant advantage.

          But hey, I've been wrong before. Matter of fact, I thought the next attack was going to be into the Melitopol direction, cutting the land bridge to Crimea. Flat land there, relatively hard to defend. You take Melitopol and you massively destabilize the position of Russian forces all the way down to Crimea. You basically completely bypass the obstacle of the lower Dnipro river that way. Though I suppose you can always try to shorten your defensive line first by clearing the west bank, and if you end up at an impasse due to the river, attack from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol and bypass the river. The advantage of taking Melitopol is that you force any redeployments from e.g. Kherson to Kharkiv to go the long way around through Rostov. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces can make that same redeployment much quicker

          2 votes
  7. [5]
    sharpstick
    Link
    Does anyone know of a good source for current maps showing the progression of the various fronts and campaigns in Ukraine. For whatever reason my news readers are not showing many maps to...

    Does anyone know of a good source for current maps showing the progression of the various fronts and campaigns in Ukraine. For whatever reason my news readers are not showing many maps to illustrate what they are reporting.

    2 votes
    1. skybrian
      Link Parent
      @War_Mapper on Twitter posts updates every day or so, including what they changed. Their profile links to a zoomable map but it tends to be a few days out of date. Also, @WarMonitor3 seems like a...

      @War_Mapper on Twitter posts updates every day or so, including what they changed. Their profile links to a zoomable map but it tends to be a few days out of date.

      Also, @WarMonitor3 seems like a good source of updates in general. But a bit too noisy for me.

      But I don’t know who either of them are, which is disconcerting.

  8. skybrian
    Link
    Arguments against the Russians using nuclear weapons: How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end? [...] [...] [...]

    Arguments against the Russians using nuclear weapons:

    How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?

    Insofar as there is some kind of nuclear threat, it is directed not against us, but against the Ukrainians. They have been resisting nuclear blackmail for seven months; and if they can do it, surely we can too. When prominent Russian political figures such as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov talk about nuclear use, they mean in Ukraine. But this is also not how the war is going to end. Kadyrov also claims that he is sending his teenage sons to fight in Ukraine. So that they can be irradiated by Russian nuclear weapons?

    Russia claims to be mobilizing hundreds of thousands of new troops. This is not going at all well, but even so: would Putin really take the political risk of a large-scale mobilization, send the Russian boys to Ukraine, and then detonate nuclear weapons nearby? Morale is a serious problem already. It appears that more than half a million Russian men have fled the country rather than be sent to Ukraine. It would not help the situation if Russians thought that they were being mobilized to a zone where nuclear weapons would be detonated. They will get no appropriate protective gear. Many mobilized soldiers lack the appropriate gear for a conventional war.

    Russia has just declared that parts of eastern and southern Ukraine are Russia. This is of course ridiculous. But would Moscow really use nuclear weapons on lands that it claims are Russian, killing or irradiating the people it claims are Russian citizens, civilians and soldiers alike? It's not impossible. But it's very unlikely.

    [...]

    I also wonder whether Russia would take the risk of bringing nuclear weapons into or even near Ukraine, given Ukraine’s accurate long-range artillery, Russia's leaky logistics, and the ability of the Ukrainians to get hold of weapons systems the Russians have brought into their country. It is hard to overstate the difficulty the Russians have in to keeping hold of their own stuff. Sure, the Russians might use a missile instead; but some of their missiles fall to earth and more are shot down. Russian planes tend to crash and to get shot down, to the point that Russian sorties are rare -- and attract negative attention.

    Assuming that Russia did want to detonate a small nuclear weapon in Ukraine and succeeded in doing so, despite all of this, this would make no decisive military difference. There are no big clusters of Ukrainian soldiers or equipment to hit, since Ukraine fights in a very decentralized way. If there were a detonation, Ukrainians would keep fighting. They have been saying so for months, and there is no reason to doubt them.

    There is also the problem of motive. Putin wants us to sympathize with his situation, which is of course a highly suspect move in itself. But is what he says even credible? We say that "Putin is backed to the wall. What will he do?" That is how we get ourselves talking about nuclear weapons: Putin gets us into what we are to supposed to believe is his own psychological space. But this is all just feeling. It is not really a motive.

    If sheer emotion resulting from defeat was going to motivate nuclear use, it would already have happened, and it hasn't. Little can be more humiliating than the Russian defeat at Kyiv, a month into the war. The collapse in Kharkiv region last month was also a shock. As I write, the Ukrainians are making significant gains in regions that Putin just claimed would be Russia forever in a giant televised ceremony; the official Russian response has been to say that their borders are not defined. The Russian reaction to superior force has been to retreat.

    So let us take a harder look at Putin's position. The Russian armed forces are not "backed against a wall" in Ukraine: they are safe if they retreat back to Russia. The "wall" metaphor is also not really helpful in seeing where Putin stands. It is more like the furniture has been moved around him, and he will have to get his bearings again.

    [...]

    Prigozhin and Kadyrov are calling for is an intensification of the war, and mocking the Russian high command in the most aggressive possible tone, but meanwhile they seem to be protecting their own men. That too seems like a trap. By criticizing the way the war is fought, they weaken Putin's informational control; by forcing him to take responsibility even as they will not do so, they expose his position further. They are telling him to win a war that they do not, themselves, seem to be trying to win.

    In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow. If this is indeed the present situation, it will soon seem foolish for everyone involved to have armed forces located in distant Ukraine, or, for that matter, to get them killed there day after day. Then comes a tipping point. Once some people realize that other people are holding back their men, it will seem senseless to expend (or alienate) one's own.

    At a certain moment, this logic applies to the Russian army itself. As Lawrence Freedman has pointed out, if the army wants to have a role in Russian politics or prestige in Russian society, its commanders have an incentive to pull back while they still have units to command. And if Putin himself wants to remain in power, neither a discredited nor a demoralized army is in his interest.

    [...]

    If this is what is coming, Putin will need no excuse to pull out from Ukraine, since he will be doing so for his own political survival. For all of his personal attachment to his odd ideas about Ukraine, I take it that he is more attached to power. If the scenario I describe here unfolds, we don't have to worry about the kinds of things we tend to worry about, like how Putin is feeling about the war, and whether Russians will be upset about losing. During an internal struggle for power in Russia, Putin and other Russians will have other things on their minds, and the war will give way to those more pressing concerns. Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you.

    Of course, all of this remains very hard to predict [...]

    2 votes
  9. cfabbro
    Link
    Dutch investigators arrest man for violating Russia sanctions in microchip deals (NL Times)

    Dutch investigators arrest man for violating Russia sanctions in microchip deals (NL Times)

    Authorities in the Netherlands arrested a 55-year-old man accused of violating sanctions against Russia by supplying computer microchips. The electronic goods could be used for military purposes, the Dutch financial crimes inspectorate, FIOD, said in a statement. He was ordered to be kept in jail on 30 September, but the arrest was only publicly revealed on Friday.

    Investigators believe he was supplying the microchips to companies and other entities in Russia. “These microchips can also be used for the production of weapons,” FIOD said. “It is known that the Russian arms industry is currently struggling with a serious shortage of these microchips.”

    The allegations came to light after a bank tipped off the Financial Intelligence Unit. The man may have intentionally lied when acquiring the microchips, to say that they were being sent on to a different destination than Russia in an attempt to avoid sanctions imposed against that country after the war in Ukraine started.

    The suspect resides in the east of the Netherlands. Authorities seized his private and business bank accounts, as well as his stock of goods, both electronic and otherwise. His financial administration documents were also seized.

    The investigation is now in the hands of the Public Prosecution Service. FIOD worked with the Dutch Customs office and Europol on the case.

    1 vote