The United States on Saturday downed a suspected Chinese spy balloon off the Carolina coast after it traversed sensitive military sites across North America and became the latest flashpoint in tensions between Washington and Beijing.
An operation was underway in U.S. territorial waters in the Atlantic Ocean to recover debris from the balloon, which had been flying at about 60,000 feet and was estimated to be about the size of three school buses. The balloon was downed by Air Force fighter aircraft, according to two officials who were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.
...
Television footage showed a small explosion, followed by the balloon descending toward the water. U.S. military jets were seen flying in the vicinity and ships were deployed in the water to mount the recovery operation.
Officials were aiming to time the operation so they could recover as much of the debris as possible before it sinks into the ocean. The Pentagon had previously estimated that any debris field would be substantial.
A Chinese spy balloon has been flying over the United States for a couple of days, U.S. officials said on Thursday, in what would be a brazen act just days ahead of a planned trip to Beijing by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Fighter jets were mobilized, but military leaders advised President Joe Biden against shooting the balloon out of the sky for fear debris could pose a safety threat, advice Biden accepted, U.S. officials said.
The United States took "custody" of the balloon when it entered U.S. airspace and had observed it with piloted U.S. military aircraft, one of the officials told reporters on condition of anonymity.
Spy balloons have flown over the United States several times in recent years, but this balloon appeared to be lingering longer than in previous instances, one of the U.S. officials said.
High-altitude object shot down over Alaska, US says https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64605447 Part II. Since Biden’s delayed (?) decision to take down the original balloon was so...
This is a weird story. If it truly is a spy balloon, I see no reason not to shut it down. If it is intentional, then what message would China be sending? If it is not, how could Beijing blunder in...
This is a weird story. If it truly is a spy balloon, I see no reason not to shut it down. If it is intentional, then what message would China be sending? If it is not, how could Beijing blunder in such a public and embarrassing way? If it is not a weather balloon, what is it that give pause before shooting it?
I saw a point on Reddit that sort of made sense: The best move is to do nothing, because everything is data: How long it takes to find it The aircraft used to get to it How long said aircraft took...
I saw a point on Reddit that sort of made sense:
The best move is to do nothing, because everything is data:
How long it takes to find it
The aircraft used to get to it
How long said aircraft took to get to it
The approach direction of the aircraft, especially relative to the location of the balloon.
Obviously something needs to be done about it, but but caution and, I'd wager, not making this exercise a particularly useful learning moment for China are probably key goals of any response from military strategists.
They already have spy satellites and presumably intel regarding base locations. As for the others, this doesn't tell them how long it took to find it — only how long it took to acknowledge it. And...
They already have spy satellites and presumably intel regarding base locations. As for the others, this doesn't tell them how long it took to find it — only how long it took to acknowledge it. And the US only acknowledged it after it started to get spotted by members of the public (to my understanding). As for the aircraft points, surely we could use a weapon that is already 'known' and therefore not giving them information they don't already have.
I understand the overarching point that everything is data, but so it whatever they're collecting by drifting (maneuvering) over the US. I think on balance, based on what is known publicly, the US has more to gain by shooting it down than by letting it float. But they haven't, so I assume there is something not known publicly.
Speculation on it is pointless. The intelligence community in the US has some of the most intelligent, specialized, and well trained people in the fields of intelligence/counter-intelligence the...
Speculation on it is pointless. The intelligence community in the US has some of the most intelligent, specialized, and well trained people in the fields of intelligence/counter-intelligence the world has ever known. We don't have access to the information they have, because by the very nature of that data it cannot be made public. Even if we did, we don't have the expertise and context that the people making these decisions have.
Any stab at, what, from an intelligence standpoint we should do/should have done about it has as much credence as us (laypeople) arguing about what kind of metal a nuclear reactor should use.
There are arguments to let it float, there are arguments to try to capture it, there are arguments to try to shoot it down. Many of those arguments are perfectly valid from what we know. There's a lot we don't know though.
Maybe it was the right decision, maybe it wasn't, but we don't have the context or expertise to say whether it was or wasn't. This is frustrating to a lot of people but it's kind of the nature of the beast.
My guess is that it's quite literally a trial balloon. China is testing the waters (or upper atmosphere, in this case) to see if the rest of the world even notices the balloons, how long it takes...
My guess is that it's quite literally a trial balloon. China is testing the waters (or upper atmosphere, in this case) to see if the rest of the world even notices the balloons, how long it takes them if they do, and how they respond.
The Biden administration acknowledged that this is not the first time this has happened, and that it happened under previous administrations. So we have been aware of previous balloons, and I...
The Biden administration acknowledged that this is not the first time this has happened, and that it happened under previous administrations. So we have been aware of previous balloons, and I would wager China knows that we knew. Hence there would be no reason for this trial now, at such a precarious moment for China (reopening after covid). Conversely, if they did not know we knew, this could be the US letting them know now. However, the administration only acknowledged the balloon after it was spotted by civilians. So it doesn't seem like the US wanted to acknowledge this.
Just because they have sent out others before this one doesn't mean they still aren't testing the waters more with this latest one. They now know how the American and European public have...
Just because they have sent out others before this one doesn't mean they still aren't testing the waters more with this latest one. They now know how the American and European public have responded to the knowledge of their existence. And while the US government may have already known about them and not acted on the previous ones, now that the US public has been made aware of them, it's no coincidence that the US government has finally shot one down for the first time. And the political pressure increasing on China to stop launching more is probably next.
It should be also noted that China has a history of doing similar boundary pushing test projects elsewhere, e.g. in the South China Sea with their artificial islands. And I suspect they will probably keep coming up with new and innovative ways to keep doing it too.
I have nothing new to add other than to point out the best headline so far in this media frenzy: Red Zeppelin.
The balloon has been popped.
US downs Chinese balloon over ocean, moves to recover debris
https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-china-antony-blinken-51e49202f2a0a50541cde059934c4cfb
...
This smells like fearmongering.
Even the wind is communist now!
Skybrian also posted about this in the US politics thread.
High-altitude object shot down over Alaska, US says
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64605447
Part II. Since Biden’s delayed (?) decision to take down the original balloon was so politicized, maybe we’re going to see a lot more of this?
Damn doesn't say what aircraft was used. Maybe the F-22 will finally get some use and get it's second air-to-air kill.
Another found: https://www.dw.com/en/us-says-another-chinese-balloon-spotted-near-latin-america/a-64609474
This is a weird story. If it truly is a spy balloon, I see no reason not to shut it down. If it is intentional, then what message would China be sending? If it is not, how could Beijing blunder in such a public and embarrassing way? If it is not a weather balloon, what is it that give pause before shooting it?
I saw a point on Reddit that sort of made sense:
The best move is to do nothing, because everything is data:
Obviously something needs to be done about it, but but caution and, I'd wager, not making this exercise a particularly useful learning moment for China are probably key goals of any response from military strategists.
Also maybe they are gleaning data from it. Listening to what it’s sending out, seeing how it moves, etc.
They already have spy satellites and presumably intel regarding base locations. As for the others, this doesn't tell them how long it took to find it — only how long it took to acknowledge it. And the US only acknowledged it after it started to get spotted by members of the public (to my understanding). As for the aircraft points, surely we could use a weapon that is already 'known' and therefore not giving them information they don't already have.
I understand the overarching point that everything is data, but so it whatever they're collecting by drifting (maneuvering) over the US. I think on balance, based on what is known publicly, the US has more to gain by shooting it down than by letting it float. But they haven't, so I assume there is something not known publicly.
Speculation on it is pointless. The intelligence community in the US has some of the most intelligent, specialized, and well trained people in the fields of intelligence/counter-intelligence the world has ever known. We don't have access to the information they have, because by the very nature of that data it cannot be made public. Even if we did, we don't have the expertise and context that the people making these decisions have.
Any stab at, what, from an intelligence standpoint we should do/should have done about it has as much credence as us (laypeople) arguing about what kind of metal a nuclear reactor should use.
There are arguments to let it float, there are arguments to try to capture it, there are arguments to try to shoot it down. Many of those arguments are perfectly valid from what we know. There's a lot we don't know though.
Maybe it was the right decision, maybe it wasn't, but we don't have the context or expertise to say whether it was or wasn't. This is frustrating to a lot of people but it's kind of the nature of the beast.
My guess is that it's quite literally a trial balloon. China is testing the waters (or upper atmosphere, in this case) to see if the rest of the world even notices the balloons, how long it takes them if they do, and how they respond.
The Biden administration acknowledged that this is not the first time this has happened, and that it happened under previous administrations. So we have been aware of previous balloons, and I would wager China knows that we knew. Hence there would be no reason for this trial now, at such a precarious moment for China (reopening after covid). Conversely, if they did not know we knew, this could be the US letting them know now. However, the administration only acknowledged the balloon after it was spotted by civilians. So it doesn't seem like the US wanted to acknowledge this.
Just because they have sent out others before this one doesn't mean they still aren't testing the waters more with this latest one. They now know how the American and European public have responded to the knowledge of their existence. And while the US government may have already known about them and not acted on the previous ones, now that the US public has been made aware of them, it's no coincidence that the US government has finally shot one down for the first time. And the political pressure increasing on China to stop launching more is probably next.
It should be also noted that China has a history of doing similar boundary pushing test projects elsewhere, e.g. in the South China Sea with their artificial islands. And I suspect they will probably keep coming up with new and innovative ways to keep doing it too.