9 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - February 16

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

14 comments

  1. [2]
    cfabbro
    Link
    President Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine (RollingStone)

    President Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine (RollingStone)

    President Joe Biden arrived in Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv on Monday in an early morning surprise visit to underscore American support for President Volodymyr Zelensky and his war efforts against Russia. Shrouded in secrecy, and coming days before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, the trip marks the first time Biden has traveled to Ukraine as president.

    “One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” Biden said.

    Armed with billions of dollars’ worth of weapons from Western countries, and in desperate need for more, Ukraine has fought the Russians to a bloody standstill. Despite American sanctions and the devastating battlefield losses of people and equipment, Moscow continues its assault on Ukrainian defenses.

    Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, told reporters that the White House alerted Russian officials to Biden’s trip to Kyiv several hours before he arrived for “deconfliction purposes.”

    Multiple government agencies and officials in the U.S. and Ukraine did not immediately respond to Rolling Stone’s inquiries about Biden’s trip. A senior White House official and a U.S. government official with knowledge of the trip confirmed the visit on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

    Despite claims from the White House for Biden having “no plans” to cross into Ukraine during his trip to Poland, plans to cross the Polish-Ukraine border began more than a month ago, after Biden told staffers he wanted a public display to show solidarity between the United States and embattled Ukraine as it enters its second year of war. Politically, this trip “needed to happen,” a senior White House official tells Rolling Stone. Over the past year, First Lady Jill Biden, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and others in the U.S. government have made the trip to the war-torn country while the president himself had not — until now.

    On Monday, however, Biden strolled the streets of downtown Kyiv, with Zelensky at his side, and announced additional weapons deliveries.

    “When Putin launched his invasion nearly one year ago, he thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided. He thought he could outlast us. But he was dead wrong,” Biden said in a statement.

    Biden was presented with an array of plans for this Ukraine trip, says the senior White House official with direct knowledge of the matter. The official was not authorized to speak on the record. One idea called for a meeting between Biden and Zelensky at an undisclosed location at the Polish-Ukrainian border. Another sought to hold the meeting in Lviv, a Western Ukrainian city that has been hit by Russian airstrikes several times since the war began but remains relatively safe when compared to the heavy fighting on the Eastern front.

    Given the obvious fact that Ukraine is an active battlefield, both the Secret Service and the Defense Department had security objections to some of the plans presented. The Secret Service did not respond to Rolling Stone’s requests for comment, and the Defense Department referred questions to the White House.

    The senior White House official says the concerns stemmed from the “unpredictability of the environment and the reduced security footprint required to support the movement of the president.”

    Ultimately, Biden selected Kyiv, a city that stands as a symbolic gesture of Ukraine’s resolve after Russian forces tried and failed to capture the capital city early in the war last year.

    6 votes
  2. cfabbro
    (edited )
    Link
    Slightly overshadowed by Biden's visit to Ukraine, but still important: Japan to give Ukraine $5.5B, host online G-7 plus Zelenskyy (AP)

    Slightly overshadowed by Biden's visit to Ukraine, but still important:

    Japan to give Ukraine $5.5B, host online G-7 plus Zelenskyy (AP)

    Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday announced a new $5.5 billion financial aid for Ukraine and will mark the first anniversary of the war by hosting an online Group of Seven summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Kishida, speaking at a global forum in Tokyo organized by a Japanese think tank, said Ukraine still suffers under the Russian invasion and its people need help to rebuild their daily lives and infrastructure that’s been badly damaged by Russian attacks.

    As this year’s president of G-7, Kishida said he will host an online summit to be joined by Zelenskyy on Friday to mark the first anniversary of the Russian invasion. It will be the first time for Kishida to host a G-7 summit.

    Japan has joined the United States and European nations in sanctioning Russia over its invasion and providing humanitarian and economic support for Ukraine. Japan was quick to react because it fears a possible impact of the war in East Asia, where China’s military has grown increasingly assertive and has escalated tensions around self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

    In his speech, Kishida acknowledged he made a decisive move because of “strong concern that Ukraine may be tomorrow’s East Asia.”

    He said Russia’s invasion is a challenge for the entire rules-based international order that brings an end to the post-Cold War era. “That’s why I decided to resolutely respond to (Russia) with sanctions.”

    Japan has provided loans of more than 70 billion yen ($520 million) to Ukraine in emergency economic assistance. The country has also accepted more than 2,000 displaced Ukrainians and helped them with housing assistance, support for jobs and education.

    6 votes
  3. [4]
    unknown user
    Link
    Vladimir Putin is to make a speech on February 21st. Nobody knows exactly what the speech is going to be about. Popular theories suggest these options: declaring the conflict a "war", in the legal...

    Vladimir Putin is to make a speech on February 21st.

    Nobody knows exactly what the speech is going to be about. Popular theories suggest these options:

    • declaring the conflict a "war", in the legal sense, instead of the "special military operation", thus allowing Putin to fully mobilize the economy and the meat-- I mean, personnel
    • declaring the conflict a "counterterrorist operation", which significantly hampers civil rights of most Russians and expands legal rights of law enforcement officers and the like (say, the NKVD-- I mean, the FSB), essentially instituting a police state
    • calling up the second wave of mobilization

    The latter option is being supported by the news all across the country of universities calling up all male students (previously safe from the first wave) in order to "check the documents": i.e. gather information on where and when to find the students.

    The next day, February 22nd, there is a concert scheduled, in which Putin is supposed to appear [source in Russian, the Kommersant newspaper]. Students across Moscow universities are being requested to visit the concert in exchange for skipping lectures. Which is, in case you haven't noticed yet, the easiest way to pad the crowd when you know a genuine civic response will not be enough to promote a cause.

    A lot of rah-rah is being made about this in the news: in particular, every single pro-Kremlin newspaper'd reported the speech and (later) the concert happening. Vesti 24, one of the largest TV channels in Russia, started a countdown to said speech – which, ordinarily, wouldn't be a big deal: Putin's cult of personality has always been promoted actively by the state-controlled media, but right now it feels like the state really wants everyone in Russia to tune in.

    6 votes
    1. unknown user
      Link Parent
      It's worth mentioning that, in the weeks coming up to the anniversary of the war, Russians have been finding it harder and harder to receive modern 10-year passports due to bullshit reasons, such...

      It's worth mentioning that, in the weeks coming up to the anniversary of the war, Russians have been finding it harder and harder to receive modern 10-year passports due to bullshit reasons, such as a "shortage of microchips" [source in Russian] (the source clearly shows that there's no shortage) and "lacking a proper agreement with the FSB" [source in Russian] (meaning a lot of people must be getting vetted).

      Russian citizens may still apply for an older, 5-year passport, which does not require microchips. I don't remember what spurred me to make mine as a modern one, all the way back in March 2022, when there was no concern at all about getting one. I suppose I'd just wanted to make the longest-lasting one – in as much as there wasn't a particular requirement from the EU or Belgium to have one with a chip in it.

      That being said, depending on the severity of Putin's points tomorrow, this may not matter too much.

      I have friends on the police side of the border. I worry about them.

      Let's see how it goes.

      6 votes
    2. unknown user
      Link Parent
      Putin's speech was a nothingburger of dismay at the West for its "corrupting values" etc. etc. etc.. No changes to the status of the war and no calls of additional mobilization. One thing of note...

      Putin's speech was a nothingburger of dismay at the West for its "corrupting values" etc. etc. etc.. No changes to the status of the war and no calls of additional mobilization.

      One thing of note was that Putin did pledge to start nuclear tests again if the US does the same.

      3 votes
    3. unknown user
      Link Parent
      The concert (or, as it's known in Russian, "meeting" – or, tongue-in-cheek, "puting") was a nothingburger as well. A similar kind of concert happened not too long after the start of the war,...

      The concert (or, as it's known in Russian, "meeting" – or, tongue-in-cheek, "puting") was a nothingburger as well. A similar kind of concert happened not too long after the start of the war, giving rise to the memes of Putin wearing ultra-expensive clothes made by European designers while his country suffered from sanctions.

      Rumor has it that saber-rattling would've been much more apparent were it not for the fact that the nuclear-capable ICBM platform used extensively in Russian propaganda had failed during test launch the day before his speech.

      3 votes
  4. unknown user
    Link
    Ukrainian restaurants have adapted to cooking during blackouts, reports Business Insider. The article talks about a few restaurants in Kyiv, and how different cuisines have adapted to cooking...

    Ukrainian restaurants have adapted to cooking during blackouts, reports Business Insider.

    The article talks about a few restaurants in Kyiv, and how different cuisines have adapted to cooking without electricity. Highlights include dinners by candlelight, live music at the venues, mini-barbecues, and edible butter candles.

    FYI: for quick mental math, 40 ₴ ≈ 1 € ≈ $1.10

    5 votes
  5. cmccabe
    Link
    US: Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine https://apnews.com/article/us-russia-ukraine-crimes-against-humanity-harris-cee87f06cbf3fcdf37e0bb398360c8ee

    US: Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine
    https://apnews.com/article/us-russia-ukraine-crimes-against-humanity-harris-cee87f06cbf3fcdf37e0bb398360c8ee

    The United States has determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Vice President Kamala Harris said Saturday, insisting that “justice must be served” to the perpetratrors.

    Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Harris said that the international community has both a moral and a strategic interest in pursuing those crimes, pointing to a danger of other authoritarian governments taking advantage if international rules are undermined.

    “Russian forces have pursued a widespread and systemic attack against a civilian population — gruesome acts of murder, torture, rape, and deportation,” Harris said. She also cited “execution-style killings, beatings, and electrocution.”

    4 votes
  6. cmccabe
    Link
    And in case you haven't gotten enough balloon news recently: Balloons Shot Down Over Ukraine Point To New Russian Tactics ...

    And in case you haven't gotten enough balloon news recently:

    Balloons Shot Down Over Ukraine Point To New Russian Tactics

    Ukrainian armed forces shot down several balloons with radar reflectors suspended beneath them that were spotted flying over or near the capital Kyiv on Wednesday, according to officials in that country. This appears to be an emerging Russian tactic that could be used to gather intelligence about Ukraine's air defense capabilities, baiting them into wasting precious ammunition and other resources, or otherwise distracting or confusing their operators.

    ...

    Of course, while their underlying technology may be dated, that does not mean these balloons can't be useful to Russia. The Russians, and the Soviets before them, have a long history of using balloons for surveillance and other purposes, which you can read all about in The War Zone's recent deep dive into the subject.

    3 votes
  7. cmccabe
    Link
    Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledges $5.5 billion in additional Ukraine aid https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/02/20/national/japan-ukraine-fresh-aid/ …

    Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledges $5.5 billion in additional Ukraine aid
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/02/20/national/japan-ukraine-fresh-aid/

    “This year, Japan, as G7 president and a nonpermanent member of the U.N. Security Council, will support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression and lead the world’s efforts to uphold a free and open international order based on the rule of law,” Kishida said.

    Kishida also announced he will host a video conference of the G7 leaders with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday, the invasion’s one-year anniversary.

    3 votes
  8. [3]
    cmccabe
    Link
    This is more than a little scary because it could mark a real turning point in the war and potentially a massive escalation beyond Ukraine. U.S. Considers Release of Intelligence on China’s...

    This is more than a little scary because it could mark a real turning point in the war and potentially a massive escalation beyond Ukraine.

    U.S. Considers Release of Intelligence on China’s Potential Arms Transfer to Russia
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-considers-release-of-intelligence-on-chinas-potential-arms-transfer-to-russia-8e353933 (paywalled)

    Full text here, if you don't have WSJ access.

    3 votes
    1. [2]
      unknown user
      Link Parent
      How do you think this could lead to an escalation?

      How do you think this could lead to an escalation?

      1 vote
      1. cmccabe
        Link Parent
        At a very minimum it could turn Ukraine into a proxy war between the US and both Russia and China. And, albeit more speculation, there are some analyses suggesting that China does not want this...

        At a very minimum it could turn Ukraine into a proxy war between the US and both Russia and China.

        And, albeit more speculation, there are some analyses suggesting that China does not want this war to end soon because it is draining off western (particularly US) weapons, which would give China an advantage if they choose to make a move on Taiwan.

        This is obviously speculation, but if China removes any last veneer of impartiality by providing military support to Russia, that risks more fully drawing in more countries to the conflict. It would start by sanctions on China and tensions would ratchet up from there.

        3 votes