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Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - February 16
This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.
If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.
President Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine (RollingStone)
Rail Force One
Slightly overshadowed by Biden's visit to Ukraine, but still important:
Japan to give Ukraine $5.5B, host online G-7 plus Zelenskyy (AP)
Vladimir Putin is to make a speech on February 21st.
Nobody knows exactly what the speech is going to be about. Popular theories suggest these options:
The latter option is being supported by the news all across the country of universities calling up all male students (previously safe from the first wave) in order to "check the documents": i.e. gather information on where and when to find the students.
The next day, February 22nd, there is a concert scheduled, in which Putin is supposed to appear [source in Russian, the Kommersant newspaper]. Students across Moscow universities are being requested to visit the concert in exchange for skipping lectures. Which is, in case you haven't noticed yet, the easiest way to pad the crowd when you know a genuine civic response will not be enough to promote a cause.
A lot of rah-rah is being made about this in the news: in particular, every single pro-Kremlin newspaper'd reported the speech and (later) the concert happening. Vesti 24, one of the largest TV channels in Russia, started a countdown to said speech – which, ordinarily, wouldn't be a big deal: Putin's cult of personality has always been promoted actively by the state-controlled media, but right now it feels like the state really wants everyone in Russia to tune in.
It's worth mentioning that, in the weeks coming up to the anniversary of the war, Russians have been finding it harder and harder to receive modern 10-year passports due to bullshit reasons, such as a "shortage of microchips" [source in Russian] (the source clearly shows that there's no shortage) and "lacking a proper agreement with the FSB" [source in Russian] (meaning a lot of people must be getting vetted).
Russian citizens may still apply for an older, 5-year passport, which does not require microchips. I don't remember what spurred me to make mine as a modern one, all the way back in March 2022, when there was no concern at all about getting one. I suppose I'd just wanted to make the longest-lasting one – in as much as there wasn't a particular requirement from the EU or Belgium to have one with a chip in it.
That being said, depending on the severity of Putin's points tomorrow, this may not matter too much.
I have friends on the police side of the border. I worry about them.
Let's see how it goes.
Putin's speech was a nothingburger of dismay at the West for its "corrupting values" etc. etc. etc.. No changes to the status of the war and no calls of additional mobilization.
One thing of note was that Putin did pledge to start nuclear tests again if the US does the same.
The concert (or, as it's known in Russian, "meeting" – or, tongue-in-cheek, "puting") was a nothingburger as well. A similar kind of concert happened not too long after the start of the war, giving rise to the memes of Putin wearing ultra-expensive clothes made by European designers while his country suffered from sanctions.
Rumor has it that saber-rattling would've been much more apparent were it not for the fact that the nuclear-capable ICBM platform used extensively in Russian propaganda had failed during test launch the day before his speech.
Ukrainian restaurants have adapted to cooking during blackouts, reports Business Insider.
The article talks about a few restaurants in Kyiv, and how different cuisines have adapted to cooking without electricity. Highlights include dinners by candlelight, live music at the venues, mini-barbecues, and edible butter candles.
FYI: for quick mental math, 40 ₴ ≈ 1 € ≈ $1.10
US: Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine
https://apnews.com/article/us-russia-ukraine-crimes-against-humanity-harris-cee87f06cbf3fcdf37e0bb398360c8ee
And in case you haven't gotten enough balloon news recently:
Balloons Shot Down Over Ukraine Point To New Russian Tactics
...
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledges $5.5 billion in additional Ukraine aid
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/02/20/national/japan-ukraine-fresh-aid/
…
This is more than a little scary because it could mark a real turning point in the war and potentially a massive escalation beyond Ukraine.
U.S. Considers Release of Intelligence on China’s Potential Arms Transfer to Russia
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-considers-release-of-intelligence-on-chinas-potential-arms-transfer-to-russia-8e353933 (paywalled)
Full text here, if you don't have WSJ access.
How do you think this could lead to an escalation?
At a very minimum it could turn Ukraine into a proxy war between the US and both Russia and China.
And, albeit more speculation, there are some analyses suggesting that China does not want this war to end soon because it is draining off western (particularly US) weapons, which would give China an advantage if they choose to make a move on Taiwan.
This is obviously speculation, but if China removes any last veneer of impartiality by providing military support to Russia, that risks more fully drawing in more countries to the conflict. It would start by sanctions on China and tensions would ratchet up from there.