12
votes
Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - February 23
This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.
If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.
Washington Post reports that India, many African countries, and others are, if not sympathetic to Russia, highly distrustful of the U.S. Notably, trade between Russia and India has increased 400% since the start of the war.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/global-south-russia-war-divided/
Thanks NoblePath; great article. There was another very good article about India's position on this war in the NYT a few weeks back. Like the WP article you posted, it highlights the major geopolitical instabilities (which some obviously see as opportunities) behind the war. It also addresses the growing narrative of rising authoritarianism across the globe, focusing here on Modi's strengthening grip on India, which he is achieving partly by exploiting the sentiments of Hindu nationalism. I don't know a lot about modern day Indian politics so it was a very enlightening read for me. The other big theme of the article was that hesitancy about taking sides against Russia is a result of many decades of an unreliable and abusive relationship between the US and many countries in the world.
Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World (NYT, paywall)
alt source (no paywall)
Honestly the Modi angle on this is way overstated. There is a broad consensus across parties in India on foreign policy and Jaishankar is acknowledged across the board as one of the most capable and consequential foreign ministers the country has ever had. The Congress Party recently tried to drag him ahead of elections and was immediately slapped for it by even the friendly/liberal media sources.
I do not think India's position in this conflict would be meaningfully different if any of the other large parties was in charge, though if it was the AAP it would probably be less competently managed.
The only meaningful factions who break from the consensus on geopolitics tend to be the Marxist ones, and that's mostly because they're in China's pocket. But even they're not anti-Russia for obvious reasons. If anything, they're more pro-Russia than the BJP is. They hate America more than anyone.
It's also important not to underrate India's dependence on Russian military technology. They have undertaken a broad initiative to "indigenize" their arms production, and a big part of their trade with Russia is reversing the flow of munitions manufacturing (so India net exporting parts and ammo to Russia instead of the other way around) which functionally bootstraps India's manufacturing base. Unfortunately for them, there really isn't anywhere else they can go for cutting edge military tech. China is out for obvious reasons, and the USA is heavy handed about using the arms trade as a lever to strong-arm countries in diplomacy in ways Indians really do not like.
We tend to hold India to pretty ridiculous double standards about this stuff too. We'll sell to the Saudis or Pakistan without a second thought, but every little episode of political unrest in India seems to invite congressional review and outsized public condemnation. These sorts of antics have made even liberal Indians suspicious of the US as an ally, even if they have very positive opinions of the US as a country.
Yes, I probably oversummarized, but the article did not claim that Indian hesitancy toward taking sides was attributable to Modi or his party. In fact, it heavily looked at Jaishankar who made very reasonable, general arguments about why India is taking the position it is. I felt the article was very good about not portraying India's position in a negative light, but rather explaining how it has arisen due to many of the conditions you described. I think this is very valuable because US news about the Russia/Ukraine war tends to ignore the factors weighing on these decisions and to instead depict neutral countries as somehow corrupt.
Although I am somewhat aware of India's military tech pickle, both in terms of their historical dependency on Russian weapons, the awkward relationship with US weaponry, and their hostile relationship with neighboring China; I was not aware of the movement to increase domestic arms production. I guess that really shouldn't be surprising at all though.
They not only want to enhance domestic production for self-sufficiency reasons, but they aspire to become a major arms supplier similar to Israel and Germany. They are particularly interested in fostering arms deals with countries in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific regions to promote stronger military ties and a broad alliance base against China.
Interesting. Thanks for adding that. I’ll look around to read more.
Russians hunting property in Finland hit a new wall of suspicion
Politico – Charlie Duxbury – 23rd February 2023
One year ago tomorrow, Putin stated, "I have decided to conduct a special military operation", and the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Putin, and military analysts from around the world, thought the war would be over in a few days; but now a year later, the scale of death and destruction is immense and the war doesn't have an obvious end in sight. It is really sobering to think back over this year. Some estimates put Russian military deaths at over 150,000, with similar figures in Ukraine, especially if you add in civilian deaths. And again, no obvious end in sight.
'They wanted children': Ukrainian doctors say they lied to keep kids safe from Russian troops
How the U.S. Adopted a New Intelligence Playbook to Expose Russia’s War Plans
How Ukraine's 'lifeline' railway runs even as Russia bombs it, according to a man fighting to keep the trains on time
A 30 minute video from the ABC: A Year after invasion, Russian propaganda has gone insane to fuel Putin's war | Foreign Correspondent
Accompanying article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-23/russia-information-war-latvia-exiled-media-tv-rain/101956932
The real reason for China's charm offensive over Ukraine and Russia
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64754510
One year into the Russian war in Ukraine, China has released a proposal for ending the war. This BBC article analyzes that proposal and suggests that it is more about testing geopolitical fault lines and attempting to realign the current world order away from the US and toward China than it is about actual peace in Ukraine.
Long piece from The Guardian on Mariupol.
Belarus opposition says it damaged Russian warplane
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64782626
Opposition appears alive and well in Belarus. In this case, a Russian A-50 at an airport near Minsk was damaged by a drone strike. The A-50 is "an airborne command centre used for directing Russian air strikes".
Ukraine, One Year at War: An interactive timeline of the conflict
Discreetly, and at peril, Russian volunteers help Ukrainian refugees (Washington Post)