8 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - March 23

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

14 comments

  1. cmccabe
    Link
    The world according to Xi https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/23/the-world-according-to-xi

    The world according to Xi
    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/23/the-world-according-to-xi

    On Ukraine China has played an awkward hand ruthlessly and well. Its goals are subtle: to ensure Russia is subordinate but not so weak that Mr Putin’s regime implodes; to burnish its own credentials as a peacemaker in the eyes of the emerging world; and, with an eye on Taiwan, to undermine the perceived legitimacy of Western sanctions and military support as a tool of foreign policy. Mr Xi has cynically proposed a “peace plan” for Ukraine that would reward Russian aggression and which he knows Ukraine will not accept. It calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries”, but neglects to mention that Russia occupies more than a sixth of its neighbour.

    the real point of Mr Xi’s foreign policy is to make the world safer for the Chinese Communist Party. Over time, its flaws will be hard to hide. A mesh of expedient bilateral relationships creates contradictions. China has backed Iran but chosen to ignore its ongoing nuclear escalation, which threatens China’s other clients in the region. In Ukraine any durable peace requires the consent of Ukrainians. It should also involve accountability for war crimes and guarantees against another attack. China objects to all three: it does not believe in democracy, human rights or constraining great powers—whether in Ukraine or Taiwan. Countries that face a direct security threat from China, such as India and Japan, will grow even warier (see Asia section). Indeed, wherever a country faces a powerful, aggressive neighbour, the principle that might is right means that it will have more to fear.

    Because China almost always backs ruling elites, however inept or cruel, its approach may eventually outrage ordinary people around the world. Until that moment, open societies will face a struggle over competing visions. One task is to stop Ukraine being pushed into a bogus peace deal, and for Western countries to deepen their defensive alliances, including Nato. The long-run goal is to rebut the charge that global rules serve only Western interests and to expose the poverty of the worldview that China—and Russia—are promoting.

    America’s great insight in 1945 was that it could make itself more secure by binding itself to lasting alliances and common rules. That idealistic vision has been tarnished by decades of contact with reality, including in Iraq. But the Moscow summit reveals a worse alternative: a superpower that seeks influence without winning affection, power without trust and a global vision without universal human rights. Those who believe this will make the world a better place should think again.

    8 votes
  2. cmccabe
    Link
    Putin and Xi Are Making the War in Ukraine a Global Contest https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89364 ...

    Putin and Xi Are Making the War in Ukraine a Global Contest
    https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89364

    Despite all its weaknesses and, often, double standards, the West’s model is built on human rights, democracy, the rule of law, and international rules on trade. The West also puts great store on territorial integrity and sovereignty—otherwise, the global order, fragile as it is, would lapse into a Hobbesian world of chaos and conflict.

    ...

    That is the essence of the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine loses, the West will lose too. Russia, with the help of its erstwhile allies would use the defeat of Ukraine to reassert its influence in Eastern Europe. A defeat would boost authoritarian regimes, led by Beijing to reshape the post–Cold War international order where the United States could lose its predominant position. It is a sobering, pessimistic scenario.

    6 votes
  3. cfabbro
    Link
    Hungarian parliament approves Finland’s bid to join NATO (AP)

    Hungarian parliament approves Finland’s bid to join NATO (AP)

    Hungary’s parliament on Monday approved Finland’s bid to join NATO, putting an end to months of delays and bringing the Nordic country one step closer to becoming a full member of the Western military alliance.

    The measure, passed with 182 votes for and six against, came after Hungary’s government had for months frustrated allies in NATO and the European Union by repeatedly postponing the vote after nearly all other alliance members ratified Finland’s bid.

    While Hungary’s approval was greeted with relief in Helsinki and elsewhere, NATO accession for Sweden remained up in the air as members of Hungary’s governing party insisted they will wait for Stockholm to clear up lingering disagreements before they go to a vote. Finland and Sweden jointly applied for membership following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

    Adding to the uncertainly over Sweden’s bid are Turkey’s own objections amid accusations that Stockholm is too soft on groups that it deems to be terror organizations.

    5 votes
  4. streblo
    Link
    Still Bakhmut - Lawrence Freedman https://samf.substack.com/p/still-bakhmut?sd=pf ... ...

    Still Bakhmut - Lawrence Freedman
    https://samf.substack.com/p/still-bakhmut?sd=pf

    It also raises a question about how long Russia can keep this going. The conventional wisdom is ‘forever’ because this is Vladimir Putin’s war and he is firmly in power. Russia’s economy is ticking over and there are no signs of revolution in the air. The only way to bring this war to a conclusion, therefore, is by means of a successful Ukrainian offensive. This has also been my view for some time.

    Yet my aim with these posts is not to predict, but to look at developments and trends and consider future possibilities that may not come to pass but are worth consideration. In this post I look at the possibility that Russia’s current offensive may fail – likely but not yet certain – and the implications of Putin having no obvious route to victory. It is in the context of this possibility that China’s peace plan needs to be viewed.

    ...

    The earlier Chinese document on a political settlement, which I discussed here, also affirms the core principle of the UN Charter and international law while avoiding the logical conclusion that this requires Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. But also absent is any suggestion that Russia has a right to annex a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. It is this ambiguity, combined with Russia’s growing dependence on China, that gives Beijing an opportunity to try its hand at mediation. It had a recent success in helping to broker an Iran-Saudi rapprochement, although the two parties would have probably got to this point without Chinese help so there is no comparison in terms of the tractability of the problem. Away from conversations with Xi, the Russians have shown no interest in serious negotiations. Nor has Xi yet taken the next step of talking to President Zelensky, despite Zelensky’s efforts to have a conversation. This may just be a statement designed to show where China stands on the war rather than the basis for any serious diplomatic effort. There is therefore no reason to assume that this initiative will get very far. The core positions of the two sides remain far apart.

    And yet. If it is the case that attitudes towards cease-fires and eventual peace settlements depend on the outcomes of the battles for territory currently underway, and if Russia continues to underperform and decides it needs to pause the conflict and even find a way to wind it down, then Putin’s first call will most likely be to Xi. If this is at all possible Ukraine and its Western supporters to start work on how to respond. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has observed, ‘Ukraine will likely regain its territory through a mix of military and diplomatic means. ’ Any diplomatic means is likely to have a role for China.

    ...

    Since the invasion Russia has had two major reappraisals of its strategy. The first came at the end of March 2022, after it had lost the battle for Kyiv and had to withdraw its forces away from northern Ukraine. This led to scaled down aspirations, both politically and militarily. The focus would be on the Donbas. Then six months later, after it had made little headway and its forces had been pushed back from Kharkiv oblast and lost ground in Kherson, there was a second reappraisal. This went in the opposite direction, reflecting pressure from hard-line nationalist critics. Putin doubled-down, raising the stakes politically by annexing four oblasts, mobilising 300,000 extra troops and beginning the campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

    Six months on again none of these measures have advanced Russia’s cause one whit. Ukraine has been badly hurt but its relative military position is improving as more Western supplies come in (albeit not as fast as it would like). Putin’s strategic choices have narrowed. Perhaps he will persevere in a Micawberish sort of way, hoping that something will turn up. The arguments against conceding that this venture has been disastrous remain profound and there is no evidence that his position in the Kremlin is under threat. Yet he and his generals must have some misgivings about the consequences of a successful Ukrainian offensive with so little to show for their own. The best bet is that he will insist that his generals continue on their current course, perhaps taking even more risks to get a victory of some sort. I would still, however, not be wholly surprised if at some point he put in an anxious call to his friend XI Jinping to ask about how he is getting on with his peace initiative.

    4 votes
  5. skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine ready to resume export of electricity to EU - Energy Minister (Euromaidan) How Ukraine has maintained its energy supply despite the war (DW) [...] [...] [...] [...]

    Ukraine ready to resume export of electricity to EU - Energy Minister (Euromaidan)

    Halushchenko noted that the energy exchange is mutually beneficial, as the EU can receive electricity at acceptable prices, while Ukrainian generating companies can earn money, including for the restoration of capacity when the war ends.

    The Ukrainian Energy Ministry halted electricity exports to the European Union back in October 2022 after Russia started a months-long massive strategic bombing campaign that primarily targeted the Ukrainian power generation and distribution facilities.

    Currently, for the second consecutive month, there is no electricity shortage in Ukraine’s energy system.

    How Ukraine has maintained its energy supply despite the war (DW)

    The Energy Ministry in Kyiv told DW that more than 50% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure was damaged, affecting both electricity generation and conveyance. It said the most significant damage was done to heating facilities, with every single cogeneration plant hit.

    "All the big heat and hydropower plants were damaged by Russian fire," Volodymyr Kudrytsky, the director of the state-run Ukrainian energy supplier Ukrenergo, said.

    Almost all major substations had been attacked at least three to four times, he said. "We have objects that were hit six times, or some even 20 times," he added.

    But the electricity supply has been maintained, he said. According to Kudrytsky, there have been no more outages since mid-February and the system has been working without any restrictions.

    [...]

    According to Ukrenergo, damaged power lines were quickly repaired, often at the risk of expert workers' lives.

    But it says the protection of Ukrainian airspace by air defense systems was also of great importance. In addition, the state energy supplier worked together with grid operators to develop new methods for reacting to attacks by Russian rockets and drones.

    "One method is to take the load off the energy system in the period before the attacks, thus maintaining its integrity," Volodymyr Omelchenko, the director for energy programs at the Rasumkov research center in Kyiv, told DW.

    [...]

    In addition, repairs on a block at Ukraine's Rivne nuclear power plant have been finished. The second block of this plant, which operated at half-capacity in 2022, is also now at full power. This means that all nine available nuclear blocks are operating, which has compensated for shortfalls from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, currently occupied by Russian troops.

    [...]

    The weather did its bit to help, too. "Nature is on our side. This winter, we have unusually large amounts of meltwater in the Dnipro, Sozh, Dnesna and Pripyat rivers. Something like that happens only every 20 to 30 years. That helps us a lot, and the hydroelectricity plants are supplying a lot of power now," Ihor Syrota, CEO of the Ukrainian hydropower generating company Ukrhydroenergo, told DW.

    [...]

    Ukrainian energy suppliers are meanwhile looking for more ways to secure those facilities and networks most at risk. For example, Ukrainian engineers are gathering information on how to move energy facilities as far as possible beneath the ground to protect them from Russian rockets.

    3 votes
  6. [2]
    cfabbro
    Link
    German Leopard 2 tanks have reached Ukraine (Reuters)

    German Leopard 2 tanks have reached Ukraine (Reuters)

    The 18 Leopard 2 battle tanks pledged by Germany to support Ukraine in its war against Russia have arrived in Ukraine, the German Defence Ministry said on Monday.

    Germany agreed in January to supply the tanks, regarded as among the best in the West's arsenal, overcoming misgivings about sending heavy weaponry that Kyiv says is crucial to defeat Russia's invasion but Moscow casts as a dangerous provocation.

    Besides the 18 tanks, 40 German Marder infantry fighting vehicles, and two armoured recovery vehicles had also reached Ukraine, a security source said.

    The German army trained the Ukrainian tank crews as well as the troops assigned to operate the Marder vehicles for several weeks in Muenster and Bergen in northern Germany.

    As well as the German vehicles, three Leopard tanks donated by Portugal also reached Ukraine, the security source said.

    2 votes
    1. FishFingus
      Link Parent
      The British MoD released a training video on YT the other day which stated that the Challenger 2 crews are also now fully trained and back in Ukraine.

      The British MoD released a training video on YT the other day which stated that the Challenger 2 crews are also now fully trained and back in Ukraine.

      2 votes
  7. streblo
    Link
    PDF: RUSI: Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023

    PDF: RUSI: Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023

    The report comprises two parts. The first spans Russia’s preparations and intentions as regards
    unconventional operations in Ukraine. It describes Russia’s agent network for conducting
    unconventional warfare in Ukraine, built up over many years, and then outlines how this
    network was intended to be used to enable the occupation and annexation of the country.

    The second part discusses how Russia used unconventional operations in light of how the war
    actually unfolded, including the counterintelligence regime on the occupied territories and
    the employment of special forces and irregular forces during the fighting. This report does not
    explore Russian operations in detail from 2014–21 but is instead focused on the build-up and
    execution of unconventional operations in support of the invasion in 2022. The aim is to detail
    Russia’s forms and methods, to enable them to be disrupted, and to provide an unclassified
    basis for discussing indicators, warnings and countermeasures.

    2 votes
  8. cmccabe
    Link
    Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is ‘ready’ for Chinese leader to visit https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-ukraine-china-russia-xi-abcab63f7424cc15ef12d85aba180e7f

    Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is ‘ready’ for Chinese leader to visit
    https://apnews.com/article/zelenskyy-ukraine-china-russia-xi-abcab63f7424cc15ef12d85aba180e7f

    Ukraine’s president invited his powerful Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to visit his nation, saying they haven’t been in contact since the war began and he is “ready to see him here.”

    “I want to speak with him,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy told The Associated Press on Tuesday, the week after Xi visited Russian President Vladimir Putin last week. China had no immediate response about whether a Xi visit to Ukraine would happen.

    Zelenskyy has extended invitations to Xi before in recent months, but this explicit call to visit comes days after the Chinese leader visited Putin in Russia last week. But the Ukrainian leader said he hasn’t communicated with Xi for the duration of the conflict.

    “We are ready to see him here,” Zelenskyy said. “I had contact with him before full-scale war. But during all this year, more than one year, I didn’t have.”

    2 votes
  9. [4]
    Fal
    Link
    Some combat footage via Reddit

    Some combat footage via Reddit

    1 vote
    1. [3]
      cmccabe
      Link Parent
      There is a lot of Ukraine footage in this sub too: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/

      There is a lot of Ukraine footage in this sub too: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/

      2 votes
      1. [2]
        cfabbro
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        Yeah, and I highly recommend /r/UkraineWarVideoReport/ over /r/CombatFootage, which is full of Russian sympathizers/apologists and absentee moderators. Both subreddits are super NSFW/NSFL though,...

        Yeah, and I highly recommend /r/UkraineWarVideoReport/ over /r/CombatFootage, which is full of Russian sympathizers/apologists and absentee moderators. Both subreddits are super NSFW/NSFL though, so I think people should be made aware of that before recommending either of them. Some of the stuff posted in there is truly truly awful, uncensored footage of extremely gory deaths, rotting corpses, etc, and cannot be unseen.

        3 votes
        1. cmccabe
          Link Parent
          Yes, I 100% agree with that. I've pretty much tuned out all of these videos from Reddit because you're not exactly getting insight into the war or the broader geopolitical implications from them;...

          super NSFW/NSFL

          Yes, I 100% agree with that. I've pretty much tuned out all of these videos from Reddit because you're not exactly getting insight into the war or the broader geopolitical implications from them; but one slipped through on me today and now it keeps repeating in my head. Some of these videos are really gruesome.

          3 votes