Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - April 27

Putin Grooms Russians for Defeat in Leaked Crisis Manual

After spending the last year reassuring Russians that victory is inevitable in the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin is now frantically working to lower expectations—and rolling out a contingency plan to lessen the impact of a humiliating defeat.

A new manual prepared by Russia’s presidential administration and distributed to the Kremlin’s army of propagandists contains some surprising instructions: Do not “underestimate” Ukraine’s impending counter-offensive and do not spread the idea that Kyiv is somehow “not ready” for it.

That’s according to the independent news outlet Meduza, which says it obtained a fresh copy of the manual and spoke to sources close to the Kremlin about it.

“If the offensive is unsuccessful, it will be possible to say: the army [of Russia] skillfully fended off an attack that was superior in power,” making the “victory” that much more impressive, the sources were quoted saying.

But perhaps more importantly, the sources explained, if the Ukrainian military manages to take back territories and claim battlefield victories “with the help of weapons from the U.S. and Europe,” Russia’s losses will be understandable—after all, they were up against the “entire West.”

Keeping the Lights On at Ukraine’s Research Nuclear Reactor

In the pre-dawn hours of March 6, 2022, a Russian rocket struck a large, white-and-gray-sided building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Although the building could easily be mistaken for a warehouse from the outside, inside it contained a nuclear research reactor known as a neutron source. Neutron sources are often used for medical research — in this case to create an isotope commonly used to diagnose certain forms of cancer — and this one helps train Ukraine’s nuclear scientists and technicians.

For a long time I've been following a Twitter account called "War Mapper" that just updates its maps when the front lines move. Looks like they're starting to write someone longer weekly updates about the situation:

Week 62: Bakhmut situation critical

Over the past week, Russian forces have continued their gradual advances through the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine. As of now, Ukrainian forces only hold a small area of high-rise buildings on the western edge of the city, which is under threat of being overrun by the advancing Russian forces.

The Russian forces have made notable advances west of the rail station and have taken control of almost the entirety of the southwest residential district. Additionally, Russia has made advances in the north of the city. It is likely that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from more vulnerable positions in that area.

If Ukraine is unable to stop the momentum of the Russian forces, it is highly likely that they will lose the remaining positions in the city within the next two weeks. The strategic impact of this loss remains to be seen. While Bakhmut became a stronghold for the Ukrainian army, they successfully slowed the Russian advance past the city for many months. This has allowed for new defensive lines to be developed behind the city in preparation for its capture. It is important to note that Ukraine maintains that it has no intention of abandoning the city despite the challenging situation there.

Ukrainian President Zelensky held ‘meaningful’ call with China’s Xi Jinping
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/26/zelensky-xi-jinping-ukraine-china/

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and China’s Xi Jinping spoke by phone Wednesday — their first conversation since Russia invaded Ukraine 14 months ago and a signal that Beijing may be angling to play a mediating role.

China will send a special representative to Ukraine and other countries to hold talks with all parties on resolving the “crisis,” Xi told Zelensky, according to a Chinese readout of the call.

China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, will soon travel to Kyiv. He is a former Chinese ambassador to Russia and received a friendship medal from Putin in 2019.

Ahead of Xi’s visit to Moscow, Beijing outlined a 12-point proposal for peace in Ukraine that Washington and Kyiv have dismissed as a nonstarter. The proposal did not call for Russia’s immediate withdrawal from Ukrainian territory or demand respect for Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.