Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - May 4

What's making the rounds in Germany these days is this:

We know that Zelenskyy was/is supposed to visit Berlin next week (13.5.). Apparently, we weren't supposed to know. Supposedly, someone from the Berlin police force talked to the press a bit too much. Including confidential details about the itinerary.

Understandably, Kyiv is less than pleased. Berlin's police is investigating. I expect that the visit will have to happen some other time then.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/selenskyj-berlin-ermittlungen-100.html

Beyond that, there's a lot of Russian oil depots and trains going up in flames these days. Suspiciously many. Complete speculation at this point, but this could well be Ukraine "shaping the battlefield". A few spec ops guys with drones behind the lines maybe. The goal would be to draw troops and e.g. air defence away from the front lines, and make the supply situation worse for the Russians. Ideally, once the Ukrainian counter offensive commences, the air space will be less defended, and any Russian reserves will have less fuel to move around.

However, considering how far behind the lines these incidents are, I expect the actual attack could still be a few weeks away.

Oh, and one last thing: I keep an eye out on ADSB exchange for NATO reconnaissance aircraft. Today I saw a US Rivet Joint aircraft(signal intelligence) in Finland, going up and down the Russian border. Oh, and the swedish birds (Saab 340 or Gulfstream IV, not sure which) are also a regular guest above the baltics countries and poland. The NATO family is growing.

Russia says U.S. was behind Kremlin drone attack, drawing quick denial
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-accuses-us-being-behind-alleged-kremlin-drone-attack-2023-05-04/

A drone attack on a building within the Kremlin compound was reported by Russian news sources as an attack carried out by Ukraine but planned and ordered by the United States. Ukraine immediately denied any part in the attack and many sources are speculating that it was a false flag attack to justify potential actions by Russia or to rile up support for the war within Russia.

Justice Department Announces Court-Authorized Disruption of the Snake Malware Network Controlled by Russia's Federal Security Service

More details on the malware and how it works here.

Putin’s embarrassing one-tank parade hints at catastrophic losses in Ukraine
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-embarrassing-one-tank-parade-hints-at-catastrophic-losses-in-ukraine/

It would be hard to image a more fitting symbol of Russia’s declining military fortunes than the sight of a solitary Stalin-era tank trundling across Red Square during the country’s traditional Victory Day celebrations on May 9. For the past two decades, Vladimir Putin has used Victory Day to showcase modern Russia’s resurgence as a military superpower, with dozens of the very latest tanks typically taking part in each annual parade. This year, however, the only tank on display was a T-34 model dating back to World War II.

Inevitably, the embarrassing absence of tanks at this year’s Victory Day parade has been widely interpreted as further evidence of Russia’s catastrophic losses in Ukraine. Social media was soon buzzing with posts poking fun at the Kremlin. “Modern Russian military equipment can be found much more easily at Ukrainian military trophy exhibitions than at the Victory Parade in Moscow,” noted the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s official Twitter account. Others were less subtle. “There was one tank at the parade in Moscow! We laugh all over Ukraine,” posted Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko. “There are farmers in Ukraine with more tanks than that,” quipped another Twitter user.

Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine

The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

The Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile with stealth capabilities, jointly developed by the UK and France, which is typically launched from the air. With a firing range in excess of 250km, or 155 miles, it is just short of the 185-mile range capability of the US-made surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, that Ukraine has long asked for.

Critically, the Storm Shadow has the range to strike deep into Russian-held territory in Eastern Ukraine. A Western official told CNN that the UK has received assurances from the Ukrainian government that these missiles will be used only within Ukrainian sovereign territory and not inside Russia. UK officials have made frequent public statements identifying Crimea as Ukrainian sovereign territory, describing it as “illegally annexed.”

Why Pope Francis Isn’t With the West on Ukraine (archived)
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/ukraine-war-pope-francis-position-vatican-geopolitics/673955/

The best way to make sense of Francis, then, isn’t in terms of left versus right, or even East versus West, but North versus South. Across the global South, the conflict in Ukraine is seen largely as a European affair, one without an obvious hero or villain. The pope’s call for a halt to arms transfers, an end to the fighting, and negotiations that all sides could support coincides with the majority sentiment among Catholics who don’t live in NATO member states.

The Catholic Church is not a democracy. But Western critics have for centuries demanded that it become more responsive to the will of the people over whose souls it claims jurisdiction. Perhaps, therefore, observers jarred by Pope Francis’s position on Ukraine might pause for a moment to consider whether Francis is simply reflecting the instincts and desires of his base, to use the political jargon.

For better or worse, the worldviews of his constituents will move further and further from the conventional political wisdom of the West. Should we be surprised when he rejects it?