11 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - May 11

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Tags: russia, ukraine, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, recurring.weekly

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

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15 comments

  1. kwyjibo
    Link
    This isn't directly related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but tonight, the leading candidate for the upcoming elections in Turkey sent out an unprecedented message to Russia via Twitter,...

    This isn't directly related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but tonight, the leading candidate for the upcoming elections in Turkey sent out an unprecedented message to Russia via Twitter, accusing it of meddling Turkey's elections. In it, he says that if Russia wants to find an amenable partner after the date of the election, they should cease their operations immediately.

    Considering Erdogan's two-sided approach to the invasion, this could mean greater and perhaps unilateral Turkish support for Ukraine in the near future.

    7 votes
  2. mycketforvirrad
    Link
    UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine BBC News – James Gregory – 11th May 2023

    UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine

    The UK has confirmed it is supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles it requested for its fight against invading Russian forces.

    The Storm Shadow cruise missile has a range of over 250km (155 miles), according to the manufacturer.

    By contrast, the US-supplied Himars missiles used by Ukraine only have a range of around 80 km (50 miles).

    BBC News – James Gregory – 11th May 2023

    5 votes
  3. [5]
    vektor
    (edited )
    Link
    New german aid package just announced. 2.7billion € worth of stuff 4 IRIS-T systems + missiles (I think this is talking about 4 distinct batteries (not sure that's the formation size, but it seems...

    New german aid package just announced.

    • 2.7billion € worth of stuff
    • 4 IRIS-T systems + missiles (I think this is talking about 4 distinct batteries (not sure that's the formation size, but it seems about right?), so each system has a radar, a tactical operations center, and a few launchers. So 4 full systems is a lot of stuff. (Edit: Definitely 4 full systems, including 12 launchers and >100 missiles. Src: SPON)
    • 20 Marder
    • 30 Leo 1
    • 18 wheeled howitzers (I was initially dismissive of wheeled, unarmored howitzers, but I'm coming around to them; my thought is the mobility and simplicity might be worth it. I'm unsure of the exact type of these, but could be RCH 155)
    • 200 recon drones
    • Artillery ammunition
    • 100 (additional, on top of the above, I presume) armored vehicles.
    • 100 logistics support vehicles (SPON)
    • 15 Gepard SPAA (SPON)

    I've stitched another source into the above list and marked all things from that source as SPON

    I've also found this webpage that you might find interesting - it seems to track actual deliveries, so the stuff above isn't yet in there.

    (Unrelated to the above. I'll not source this, as it's more my own thoughts on a myriad of distinct events)

    So, after months of "the Ukrainian offensive is going to start, right?", I feel we're finally getting somewhere. There's all kinds of activity all over. Ukraine is making ground in Bakhmut, long range strikes in Luhansk, Russian infrastructure in the rear burning all over. I wouldn't exactly say that it's starting just yet, my impression is that it's shaping operations. Supposedly, Ukraine hasn't actually committed reserves into Bakhmut, so these operations are Ukraine basically asking Russia "do you want to lose Bakhmut, or are you willing to weaken some other more strategically important part of the front to send reinforcements to bakhmut? Are you sure you want your air defense in, I dunno, the Melitopol/Zaporizhia area, or wouldn't you want to move it to Luhansk?" They're all over and without a real focus because Ukraine doesn't want to show its hand yet, or wants to force a blunder.

    My personal take is that the hammer will drop towards the sea of azov. If Ukraine thinks they can't get there in one fell swoop, they'd of course try something else. But let's say Melitopol is the goal, then all these sabotage attacks a week or two ago are to reduce mobility of personnel and materiel, and the more recent ones are to draw troops away from the relevant part of the front. My guess for the timeline? Tanks start rolling in May. So anytime between today and in three weeks. But still a week or more away.

    5 votes
    1. [4]
      vektor
      Link Parent
      Throwback to 10 days ago, when Germany learned due to a police leak that Zelensky would be coming on the 13th. Well, today is the 14th, and Zelensky arrived at ~ midnight, coming from Italy....

      Throwback to 10 days ago, when Germany learned due to a police leak that Zelensky would be coming on the 13th. Well, today is the 14th, and Zelensky arrived at ~ midnight, coming from Italy. Started official stuff this morning with Frank Walter Steinmeier, Federal President. If you go back to about a year ago, Germany was miffed because Kyiv pretty much said that Steinmeier wasn't welcome because of the part he played in German-Russian relations and NordStream. It was this whole thing.

      Anyways, lots of ceremonial hubbub, Zelensky receives the Karlspreis in recognition of his contribution towards European unity. Zelensky is also gunning for a Fighter Mafia fighter coalition, i.e. a coalition of states that are willing to send fighter jets to Ukraine. Zelensky is going to France today or is already there.

      What fighters? Well, Ukraine has previously been vocal that they want F-16s. Understandable, considering they can carry pretty much everything you'd want. That's the US though. What could Europe deliver? Well, in case of doubt, there's always old warsaw pact equipment, but considering Poland, we don't actually need a coalition there to break the ice anymore, and Germany has none left anyway. Germany wants to get rid of its Panavia Tornado fleet, though that is still a ways away, what with the replacement F35s having been ordered last year. The Eurofighter fleet, well apparently some of the older variants are due to be replaced. Whatever Germany sends, if it sends actual airframes, it's going to hurt a bit, but that was the case with PzH2000 and Leo2 as well. But I'd say there's options there that could be sent without hurting Germany too much. There's bound to be some airframes left with some useful life in them that are bound for resale or the scrap heap. Eurofighters are to this day being built in international cooperation with german participation, so maybe we could also pull a few off the line there for Ukraine, even though there seem to be plenty of unfilled orders. But Ukriane has skipped the queue on IRIS-T-SLM as well.

      Looking further afield, there's Saab's Gripen, and Dassault's Rafale. Both broadly very similar to the Eurofighter, I'd say.

      If Germany can't send airframes, I suspect we can still throw our weight around a bit to support airframes that others commit. For example, I suspect that a bunch of the 100 IRIS-T missiles are the "SLS" variant and not the SLM. (Surface Launched Short/Medium Range.) If that's correct, then (AFAIK) they're unchanged IRIS-T missiles, which can be strapped onto Gripens and Eurofighters.

      2 votes
      1. [3]
        MimicSquid
        Link Parent
        My question regarding the potential pain of Germany providing airframes to Ukraine: what does Germany have them for? Are they currently serving Germany's interests? Given that they're on the...

        My question regarding the potential pain of Germany providing airframes to Ukraine: what does Germany have them for? Are they currently serving Germany's interests? Given that they're on the docket to be replaced, do they do more good being used to decrease Russian ability to prosecute wars in Europe right now, or is it more important for Germany to hold onto them?

        1 vote
        1. [2]
          vektor
          Link Parent
          Agreed. I was hinting at it in my post, but let me spell it out: we gave up a not insignificant part of our tank and PzH2000 fleets. Not a "crippling the army" part, but "if we end up actually...

          Agreed. I was hinting at it in my post, but let me spell it out: we gave up a not insignificant part of our tank and PzH2000 fleets. Not a "crippling the army" part, but "if we end up actually needing all of the army, we'll sorely feel it". So it's been done before, in a way.

          The difference is: this time it's aircraft. As the items Ukraine needs get more and more expensive per unit, the number of units in inventory get smaller and smaller, and if you send a similar fraction of the inventory, you run into that awkward spot where nations either buy a larger fleet or don't bother at all. Looking around in the equipment lists of the smaller NATO economies, you'll see inventories of combat aircraft hardly drop below 12. If you can't afford 12 combat aircraft, you don't have an air force; your army just decided to organizationally group the air defense missiles with the president's flying limo service.

          And if you pull 12 airframe from any currently flying type, you're already looking at a quite deep pit in the inventory.

          And to be clear, "on the docket to be replaced" means the replacement airframes are available in many many years. Using the F-35 as an example, in the last 12 years, 890 were built. There's orders for 3400. The US, buying most of them, expects to complete its inventory by ~2030. Germany expects first deliveries by 2028.

          All of this to say: This isn't exactly a trivial gap in capabilities.

          Personally: Because the aircraft sent will be keeping Germany's most likely adversary in an "all hands on deck" kind of defense situation very busy indeed, I'd be entirely on board with sending a bunch of Tornados. I also understand that that's not the capability that Ukraine needs. So older Eurofighters then? Also fine by me. But I also believe that this is the kind of situation where a coalition makes a lot of sense. If you can get all/most EuFi project partners (GB, DE, IT, ES) to give up a part of their older aircraft, I think you have a decent chance that no one country's capabilities are hit too badly, while also scrounging together enough aircraft to make the whole thing worthwhile.

          Another thing to keep in mind: Aircraft are fucking complex. You can teach the skills required to operate and maintain a tank very quickly in comparison to doing the same for an aircraft. I really hope the decision of what aircraft is possible to send has already been made, and Ukrainian crews are getting the training already. Otherwise the Ukrainian Army will have kicked the invaders back over the Kerch strait by the time new aircraft become useful.

          3 votes
          1. MimicSquid
            Link Parent
            Thanks for expanding on your perspective. I appreciate it.

            Thanks for expanding on your perspective. I appreciate it.

            1 vote
  4. [5]
    gpl
    Link
    Ukraine achieving some success in besieged Bakhmut, Russia says

    Ukraine achieving some success in besieged Bakhmut, Russia says

    3 votes
    1. [4]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - May 11 (ISW)

      Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - May 11 (ISW)

      Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces retreated up to two kilometers behind Russian lines in unspecified sectors of the Bakhmut front.[1] Syrskyi’s confirmation of Ukrainian gains prompted a response from Prigozhin, who claimed that Ukrainian forces have started the counteroffensive and recaptured three kilometers of ground in and around Bakhmut.[2] The Russian MoD acknowledged the Ukrainian counterattacks uncharacteristically quickly, claiming that Russian forces repelled eight ground attacks and three reconnaissance-in-force efforts in the Donetsk direction but denied reports that Ukrainian forces broke through the Russian defensive lines.[3] Prigozhin’s and the MoD’s responses are reflective of increased panic in the Russian information space over speculations about planned Ukrainian counteroffensives and indicate increased concern among Wagner and Russian MoD leadership as well as reflecting Kremlin guidance to avoid downplaying Ukrainian successes.[4]

      The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there. The Russian MoD likely began a broader deprioritization of the Bakhmut effort by January 2023 when the MoD cut off Wagner Group penal recruitment efforts, which likely prompted Prigozhin to ramp up the Soledar-Bakhmut effort in January and publicly complain about the lack of MoD support for his efforts starting in February 2023.[5] The Russian MoD briefly allocated more resources to the Bakhmut front line in March and April by sending T-90 tanks and Russian Airborne (VDV) forces to the Bakhmut area and assigning mobilized reservists to Wagner, however.[6] Prigozhin claimed on April 24 that the Russian MoD only deployed irregular and degraded units to hold Bakhmut’s flanks, and the inability of these units to fulfill even this limited mission indicates that Russian flanks in Bakhmut and other similarly-manned areas of the front are likely vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.[7] The MoD’s allocation of forces combined with changes in the geometry of the battlespace also suggests that the danger of a Russian encirclement of significant Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut may have passed. Wagner forces will likely continue conducting frontal assaults in Bakhmut, which would allow Ukrainian forces to conduct organized withdrawals from threatened areas in a shallower partial envelopment rather than facing encirclement on a large scale.

      3 votes
      1. [3]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        How Ukrainian forces denied Russia victory in Bakhmut by Victory Day (Washington Post) [...] [...] [...]

        How Ukrainian forces denied Russia victory in Bakhmut by Victory Day (Washington Post)

        [...] Ukrainian forces scored a rare advance this week south of the city and held fast in the city center. The two commanders shared details of the surprise offensive, which Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed was successful.

        [...]

        And even as Ukrainian forces were retaking significant territory to the south, the troops inside the city were locked in a ferocious grinding battle as Victory Day drew closer.

        [...]

        At the same time that Ukrainian forces were making advances south of the city at the start of the week, the Russians inside the city destroyed the roof and corner of a five-story building where the 127th was based.

        Wagner soldiers then scaled the building, taking control of the third and fourth floors while his soldiers held the first and second, Hryschenkosaid. At times the troops were fighting only five feet apart. His men eventually prevailed, and they repelled that wave as well. But they hardly had a chance to rest before they were back under attack.

        “It’s constant. Once we kill the first group, we suffer under artillery and they send in another,” he said.

        This mass expenditure of Russian troops and ammunition is one reason Ukraine has been eager to stay in Bakhmut. But the situation inside remains “very tense,” said Zahorodniuk, the former defense minister.

        The battle for Bakhmut is far from over and one success to the south is not enough to change the outcome of the fight for control of the city itself. “With a few more operations like that the situation may change, but it’s too early to say,” he said.

        [...]

        Hryshchenko described how his 127th Brigade rations ammunition for its howitzer, while each day the Russians are covering every square mile with shells until every building is destroyed.

        2 votes
        1. [2]
          gpl
          Link Parent
          The fight for Bakhmut increasingly feels like this war's equivalent of Stalingrad, minus the actual strategic value. Ukraine, at great human expense, is tying down Russian troops and their forces...

          The fight for Bakhmut increasingly feels like this war's equivalent of Stalingrad, minus the actual strategic value. Ukraine, at great human expense, is tying down Russian troops and their forces and efforts from elsewhere over a patch of land with little strategic value but immense political symbolism. I feel that Russia can no longer pull out of the city without being massively humiliated, and Ukraine knows this.

          4 votes
          1. Camus
            Link Parent
            I think this is absolutely the case. It remains to be seen however whether they are going to be able to leverage that successfully into a fixing operation (force Russia to expend troops to keep...

            I think this is absolutely the case. It remains to be seen however whether they are going to be able to leverage that successfully into a fixing operation (force Russia to expend troops to keep Bakhmut while the main force of the offensive attacks elsewhere) or if they plan to literally just counter attack at Bakhmut, which honestly given the state of infighting in the Russian military apparatus near Bakhmut right now, and the massive amount of fortifications Russia has built near the Zaporizhzhia axis which is arguably the most 'traditionally' effective place to attack, might not even be the worst option. Although it does seem a bit headstrong or reckless.

            2 votes
  5. FishFingus
    Link
    Archived from WaPo to bypass paywall: The Discord leak from earlier this year indicates that Prigozhin reportedly offered to give up Russian troops positions if Ukraine would allow Wagner to...

    Archived from WaPo to bypass paywall:
    The Discord leak from earlier this year indicates that Prigozhin reportedly offered to give up Russian troops positions if Ukraine would allow Wagner to withdraw from Bakhmut.
    https://archive.is/vqAwI

    3 votes
  6. skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine’s cultural counteroffensive: The rush to erase Russia’s imprint (Washington Post) [...]

    Ukraine’s cultural counteroffensive: The rush to erase Russia’s imprint (Washington Post)

    Ukraine is a country where many, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, grew up with Russian as their native tongue. But now the language is vanishing from public life and fading even in some daily private conversations.

    Russian-language books have been pulped. Russocentric museums have been pressured to shutter. Streets named after Russian sites, poets and Soviet army generals are marked for a change.

    Zelensky last month signed two laws barring the use of Russian place names and requiring Ukrainian citizens to know the Ukrainian language.

    [...]

    The erasure of the past has prompted a debate not unlike one in the United States: How to contend with the physical monuments to a fraught history? Americans are questioning whether to keep monuments of enslavers and Confederate generals. Ukrainians are reassessing the place of Soviet and Russian figures who once seemed intertwined with their country’s story.

    Oleg Slabospitsky, a Kyiv-based activist who is part of the organization Ukrainian Kyiv, has recorded the location of more than 200 signs and monuments in Ukraine’s capital that he believes should be removed. A Telegram channel run by another organization, Decolonize Ukraine, has more than 5,000 members. Daily posts detail almost every nook and cranny of the country where the stamp of Russia still remains. In vigilante fashion, members sometimes set off in the middle of the night to deface or dismantle landmarks they deem offensive and that local governments haven’t taken down.

    This effort to “decolonize” Ukraine has its roots in an earlier movement to “de-communize” the country. During the pro-democracy Maidan Revolution of 2013 to 2014, Ukrainian demonstrators repudiated Soviet symbols, including statues of Vladimir Lenin, because they were rejecting authoritarianism and communism and demanding closer ties with the European Union. Ukraine outlawed Soviet symbols in 2015 after Russia illegally annexed Crimea and backed separatists in the country’s east. For many, that is no longer enough.

    2 votes