15 votes

The Ukraine war after Kursk - retreat, lessons, negotiations and the coming Russian offensive

1 comment

  1. l_one
    Link
    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page. In August 2024, Ukraine...

    Description copied from Perun's page on YouTube. Links do not copy properly, if you wish to click through to sourcing please use links on the YouTube description page.

    In August 2024, Ukraine seized hundreds of square kilometres of Russia's Kursk region in a surprise offensive. Now, more than six months later, the operation has mostly ended with a Ukrainian retreat to a small holding along the Ukrainian border.

    In this episode we look at the close of the campaign, lessons arising from it, and ask what might be coming next amidst U.S. lead negotiations and evidence of coming Russian offensive efforts.

    Patreon:
    / perunau

    Reading and Sourcing:

    Visually confirmed loss data generally per warspotting & Oryx as normal

    General territorial control mapping:
    https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/51.33...

    Percentage of regional control figures:
    https://www.warmapper.org/stats

    Kursk loss localisation figures:
    https://x.com/naalsio26

    Loss distribution maps per Lostarmor:
    https://lostarmour.info/

    defence mapping by @Playfra0
    https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1907182...

    Civilian vehicle loss split by @AndrewPerpetua
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1...

    wire laying UGV
    https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1907232...

    Carlson - Witkoff interview reported transcript
    https://detector.media/withoutsection...

    Reuters on Witkoff
    https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-e...

    The Birds becoming a brigade
    https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/12/1...

    Reporting on Kursk withdrawal
    https://kyivindependent.com/the-rise-...
    https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-...

    Russia planning to increase troops in Ukraine by 150,000
    https://kyivindependent.com/russia-pl...

    Ramstein pledges
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg...

    Brent crude price
    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodit...

    Urals reaches $53
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

    Russian Recruitment & Bonus Payments
    https://x.com/jakluge/status/19113715...
    https://vk.com/wall-150272757_54052
    https://www.businessinsider.com/russi...

    TASS on Russian UAS operations, Rubicon & Kursk
    https://tass.com/politics/1898715

    The Encirclement claim
    https://kyivindependent.com/trump-cla...

    Ukrainian reporting on M2 repairs
    https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrain...

    Other featured reports
    https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-o...
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
    https://kyivindependent.com/trump-off...
    https://www.businessinsider.com/pro-r...
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4...
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukr...
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...
    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/0...

    Caveats & Comments:

    All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.

    Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

    Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:02:05 — Kursk Closes Out
    00:11:37 — Tactical Observations
    00:28:16 — Evaluating Kursk
    00:35:24 — Signs of More to Come
    00:45:51 — a Russian Offensive?
    00:45:59 — Motive
    00:47:58 — Urgency
    00:50:51 — Means
    00:58:25 — Will It Be Enough?
    01:00:59 — Channel Update

    3 votes