5 votes

What the stock market's most crucial week of the year tells us about the road ahead

8 comments

  1. DonQuixote
    Link
    Well if they were really talking about the most crucial week of the year that would be this week. Every new week is the most crucial for investors. Well, for active investors who don't think...

    Well if they were really talking about the most crucial week of the year that would be this week. Every new week is the most crucial for investors. Well, for active investors who don't think long-term.

    I've recently re-entered the self investment field after a couple year's vacation and realize how at the end I was just reacting to certain non-important things that the business media kept throwing out. At heart I'm really a value investor, and my relative ignorance over the years kept me conservative and cautious, a couple of those Warren Buffett traits that make sense.

    But it's so easy to get caught up in upgrades and downgrades and other people's analysis, which draws one to short term over managing. Right now, a few years away from retirement age, I've actually started working on real retirement budgeting and cash flows, i.e dividends. It's amazingly different to do real world calculations on what you will actually spend and how to map out a plan.

    As mentioned, I've let someone else do this for two years while I took an investing vacation, with mixed results. What I really hoped to learn was some professional methods of dealing with the bond market. It turns out that, in my experience, the bond market is a very imperfect hedge against expected downturns.

    Anyway. It's good to be back.

    2 votes
  2. [2]
    Pilgrim
    Link
    For every article like this, there is another predicting doom and gloom. It's whatever you want to hear I think. My personal opinion is I think a big bear market is coming, the bubble shall pop....

    For every article like this, there is another predicting doom and gloom. It's whatever you want to hear I think. My personal opinion is I think a big bear market is coming, the bubble shall pop. But I am a 100% layman so don't listen to me.

    1 vote
    1. DonQuixote
      Link Parent
      Exactly. It's all a crapshoot anyway, IMHO, but at least keeping track of fundamentals keeps me watching and reevaluating what I've got. In 2016 I found out that the news is just fluff,...

      Exactly. It's all a crapshoot anyway, IMHO, but at least keeping track of fundamentals keeps me watching and reevaluating what I've got. In 2016 I found out that the news is just fluff, post-rationalization at best, and attempted manipulation at worst.

      2 votes
  3. [5]
    RapidEyeMovement
    Link
    The EURO got crushed after the ECB meeting The FOMC Meeting shows that the FED are still full steam ahead with unwinding Quantitative Easing (QE) and Raising Rates. They are hoping to get make to...

    The EURO got crushed after the ECB meeting

    The FOMC Meeting shows that the FED are still full steam ahead with unwinding Quantitative Easing (QE) and Raising Rates. They are hoping to get make to a "Normal Level".

    If all you watch is S&P 500 index ($SPX) than nothing really changed. But Emerging Markets are down and there is a lot of softness in the markets in general.

    I would expect Markets to rally from February lows until after the Mid-Terms. I am already starting to hear people prognosticating $SPX to 3100

    1. [4]
      DonQuixote
      Link Parent
      That's a good expectation. Which markets? The $SPX reaching 3100 (at some point) doesn't interest me. Making x amount of dollars income off of my y amount of savings while keeping risk within my...

      That's a good expectation. Which markets? The $SPX reaching 3100 (at some point) doesn't interest me. Making x amount of dollars income off of my y amount of savings while keeping risk within my own version of z% does.

      1 vote
      1. [3]
        RapidEyeMovement
        Link Parent
        That is a pretty good money growth strategy right there, putting money into $SPX @2780 and having it grow to 3100 by Nov. (If what I said comes true, I am not too hot on those who are calling for...

        That is a pretty good money growth strategy right there, putting money into $SPX @2780 and having it grow to 3100 by Nov. (If what I said comes true, I am not too hot on those who are calling for those numbers).

        Our investment strategy are way different I have a higher appetite for risk then you it appears.

        Gold is near a low as well and that is another good low risk investment.

        Seasonally this is a good time to invest in Biostock where I have a lot of my money stashed away.
        (Let me tell you about my lord and Savior $EDIT, $CRSP, $NTLA, $SGMO)

        1. [2]
          DonQuixote
          Link Parent
          Thanks for the disclosure. My approach that worked pretty well for 10+ years was to find stocks that seemed to me underpriced and watch them very closely, while keeping a large majority of my...

          Thanks for the disclosure. My approach that worked pretty well for 10+ years was to find stocks that seemed to me underpriced and watch them very closely, while keeping a large majority of my funds in cash, actually. I think during the 2007-2008 meltdown I lost 3%, and most other years stayed on top of 8% . Unfortunately in 2016 I needed a break and turned it over to someone else, missing a lot of the present bull market. Now that I'm close to retiring, I'm going to work toward very specific achievable goals while trying to protect my nest egg from inflation erosion. Of course, there's always room to take risk. And others will always see it as foolish.

          1 vote
          1. RapidEyeMovement
            Link Parent
            I think that might be a problem in this Market, as everything appears overvalued with the current bull run we are in. There is the FAANG Stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google), which...

            I think that might be a problem in this Market, as everything appears overvalued with the current bull run we are in.

            There is the FAANG Stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google), which seem to be keeping the $SPX afloat right now. (Amazon, is my bet to make to a 1Trillian market cap company this year)

            $MSTF is another good growth company.

            Also look to China as they are undervalued in some respects because American investors have been reluctant to put money into those markets. $BABA, $IQ, $JD, $BIDU

            Also plugging into Fin Twit can be a great resource if you find reliable sources.